歐佩克稱石油需求將在2030年末趨于平穩(wěn)

據(jù)離岸工程網(wǎng)站10月8日消息 歐佩克周四表示，世界石油需求將在2030年末趨于平穩(wěn)，屆時(shí)需求可能已開(kāi)始下降，這對(duì)產(chǎn)油國(guó)來(lái)說(shuō)是一個(gè)重大轉(zhuǎn)變，反映了冠狀病毒危機(jī)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)和消費(fèi)者習(xí)慣的持久影響。

歐佩克在其《2020年世界石油展望》中做出上述預(yù)測(cè)之際，越來(lái)越多的其他預(yù)測(cè)認(rèn)為，疫情可能會(huì)成為石油需求峰值的臨界點(diǎn)。

歐佩克表示，2030年石油使用量將從2020年的9070萬(wàn)桶/日增至1.072億桶/日，比去年的2030年預(yù)測(cè)低110萬(wàn)桶/日，比2007年預(yù)測(cè)的2030年需求量低1000多萬(wàn)桶/日。全球石油需求將在預(yù)測(cè)期的第一部分以相對(duì)健康的速度增長(zhǎng)，下半年需求將趨于平穩(wěn)。該報(bào)告稱，報(bào)告著眼于2019-2045年的時(shí)間跨度。

“由于與COVID-19相關(guān)的停產(chǎn)事件及其對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)和消費(fèi)者行為的影響揮之不去，未來(lái)的需求可能會(huì)持續(xù)低于過(guò)去的預(yù)測(cè)?！?/span>

隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇，用于汽車(chē)、卡車(chē)和工業(yè)的石油使用量將反彈，但歐佩克表示擔(dān)憂，未來(lái)的增長(zhǎng)可能會(huì)被大流行后的家庭工作和電話會(huì)議轉(zhuǎn)向通勤、效率提高和轉(zhuǎn)向電動(dòng)汽車(chē)等因素所抵消。

甚至在疫情之前，西方國(guó)家日益高漲的氣候激進(jìn)主義和日益廣泛的替代燃料使用，使長(zhǎng)期石油需求的強(qiáng)度受到了更多的關(guān)注。盡管歐佩克下調(diào)了其預(yù)測(cè)，但仍有增長(zhǎng)。

今年，考慮到電動(dòng)汽車(chē)的普及速度加快、燃油效率提高以及流感大流行后商務(wù)和休閑旅行的大幅減少等發(fā)展趨勢(shì)，預(yù)計(jì)2030年后需求將開(kāi)始下降。

歐佩克表示，這種情況，即加速政策和技術(shù)案例，并非基于任何重大技術(shù)突破，也不代表完全有可能減少需求。

歐佩克表示：“能源效率措施的實(shí)施還有很大的空間，這可能會(huì)將未來(lái)的石油需求壓低到更低的水平?！?/span>

吳恒磊 編譯自 離岸工程

原文如下：

OPEC Says Oil Demand to Plateau in Late 2030s

World oil demand will plateau in the late 2030s and could by then have begun to decline, OPEC said on Thursday, in a major shift for the producer group that reflects the lasting impact of the coronavirus crisis on the economy and consumer habits.

The prediction from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, made in its 2020 World Oil Outlook, comes amid a growing number of other forecasts that the pandemic may prove the tipping point for peak oil demand.

Oil use will rise to 107.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2030 from 90.7 million bpd in 2020, OPEC said, 1.1 million bpd below its 2030 forecast last year and over 10 million bpd below its 2007 prediction of 2030 demand. "Global oil demand will grow at relatively healthy rates during the first part of the forecast period before demand plateaus during the second half," said the report, which looks at the 2019-2045 timespan.

"Future demand will likely remain persistently below past projections due to the lingering effects of the COVID-19-related shutdowns and their impact on the global economy and consumer behavior."

While oil use to fuel cars, trucks, and industry will rebound as economies recover, OPEC voiced concern future growth may be partly offset by factors like a post-pandemic shift to homeworking and teleconferencing over commuting, as well as efficiency improvements and a shift to electric cars.

Even before the pandemic, rising climate activism in the West and widening use of alternative fuels were putting the strength of long-term oil demand under more scrutiny. Despite scaling back its forecasts, OPEC had still seen growth.

This year, it also sees potential for demand to begin to decline after 2030 given developments like a faster adoption of electric cars, more fuel efficiency, and a larger reduction in business and leisure travel after the pandemic.

This scenario, the Accelerated Policy, and Technology case, is not based on any major technological breakthroughs, OPEC said, nor does it represent the full demand reduction possible.

"There is ample scope for far larger implementation of energy efficiency measures, which could potentially depress future oil demand to much lower levels," OPEC said.