石油貿(mào)易巨頭們預計油價明年年底前將不會上漲

據(jù)油價網(wǎng)倫敦報道，一些世界上最大的獨立石油貿(mào)易商的高管預計全球石油需求在未來6至9個月內(nèi)不會大幅提高，相反，他們預計油價在明年年中前仍將停留在一個狹窄的40美元左右的范圍內(nèi)。

大宗商品貿(mào)易巨頭維多集團、摩科瑞集團和貢沃爾集團的高管日前在英國《金融時報》大宗商品全球峰會上表示，他們對短期內(nèi)的全球石油需求復蘇并不樂觀。

路透社援引全球最大獨立石油貿(mào)易商維多集團首席執(zhí)行官羅塞爾·哈迪在峰會上的講話稱，他預計全球石油需求在2021年夏季之前將保持平穩(wěn)，并對油價持“溫和預期”。

哈迪本人在數(shù)周前似乎相當看好全球石油庫存的減少。哈迪在9月中旬曾對彭博社表示，全球石油庫存自今夏初見峰值12億桶以來已減少了大約3億桶，預計9月至12月間將再減少2.5 -3億桶。

維多集團執(zhí)行委員會成員克里斯·巴克不久前在海灣情報的每周能源播客上說，由于COVID-19、經(jīng)濟、貨幣刺激和石油需求的“巨大不確定性“，全球未來石油需求看起來更加不確定。

摩科瑞集團首席執(zhí)行官馬爾科·杜南在英國《金融時報》大宗商品全球峰會上表示，他認為全球石油需求在未來幾年都不會恢復到危機前的水平，并預計未來6個月油價將大致維持在每桶45美元左右。

貢沃爾集團首席執(zhí)行官托爾比約恩?托恩奎斯特也認為，油價在2021年中期之前將保持在每桶40美元左右的水平上。

李峻 編譯自 油價網(wǎng)

原文如下：

The World's Largest Oil Traders Don't Expect Prices To Rise Until 2021

The top executives at some of the world’s largest independent oil traders do not expect global oil demand to materially improve over the next six to nine months—Instead, they expect oil prices to remain stuck in a narrow range in the $40s at least until the middle of 2021.

The senior executives at commodity trading giants Vitol, Mercuria, and Gunvor are not optimistic about the demand recovery in the near term, they said at the FT Commodities Global Summit on Tuesday.

Russell Hardy, chief executive at the biggest independent oil trader in the world, Vitol Group, expects global oil demand to stay flat until the summer of 2021, and has “modest expectations” about oil prices, Reuters quoted Hardy as telling the summit.

Hardy himself appeared quite bullish on oil inventories drawing down two weeks ago. The world’s stockpiles of oil have diminished by around 300 million barrels since peaking at 1.2 billion barrels early this summer, and are expected to decline by another 250 million-300 million barrels between September and December, Hardy told Bloomberg in mid-September.

This weekend, Vitol’s executive committee member Chris Bake said on Gulf Intelligence’s weekly energy podcast that demand is looking more uncertain amid a “huge amount of uncertainty” about COVID-19, economies, monetary stimulus, and oil demand.

Mercuria’s CEO Marco Dunand said on the FT summit on Tuesday that he doesn’t see oil demand recovering to the pre-crisis levels for a few years, and expects oil prices to remain broadly flat around $45 per barrel over the next six months.

Torbj?rn T?rnqvist, chief executive at Gunvor, also sees oil prices staying in the $40s until the middle of 2021.