近年來(lái)歐佩克成員國(guó)一直在爭(zhēng)奪市場(chǎng)份額

據(jù)今日油價(jià)10月9日?qǐng)?bào)道，實(shí)際上，沙特阿美剛剛宣布，該公司不相信石油需求會(huì)出現(xiàn)峰值，并計(jì)劃在長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)加倍努力提高石油產(chǎn)量，以擊敗競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手，盡管許多公司承諾在低碳能源方面進(jìn)行重大投資。

沙特阿美表示:“我們預(yù)計(jì)，在人口增長(zhǎng)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的推動(dòng)下，從長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看，石油需求將繼續(xù)增長(zhǎng)，而燃料和石化產(chǎn)品將支持需求增長(zhǎng)……有關(guān)石油需求即將見(jiàn)頂?shù)牟聹y(cè)，根本不符合石油消費(fèi)的現(xiàn)實(shí)?！?/span>

天然氣市場(chǎng)的狀況也好不到哪里去，因?yàn)樘烊粴夂褪蜕a(chǎn)商在同一戰(zhàn)壕。最大的液化天然氣出口國(guó)卡塔爾最近宣布，將繼續(xù)推進(jìn)其大規(guī)模的液化天然氣(LNG)產(chǎn)能擴(kuò)張，押注其能通過(guò)降低生產(chǎn)成本和聯(lián)合生產(chǎn)凝析油和液化石油氣(LPG)擊敗其他液化天然氣生產(chǎn)國(guó)。

世界上最大的石油公司沙特阿美，正通過(guò)加倍投資石油來(lái)抵御歷史上最嚴(yán)重的石油需求崩潰所造成的危機(jī)。該公司決心在石油需求達(dá)到峰值時(shí)度過(guò)難關(guān)，并從其投資組合和沙特剩余石油儲(chǔ)備中賺取利潤(rùn)。

與許多大型國(guó)際石油公司不同，這家沙特巨頭沒(méi)有承諾轉(zhuǎn)向低碳能源或凈零排放。該公司的核心業(yè)務(wù)是在沙特阿拉伯開(kāi)采低成本石油，只要世界需要石油，它就會(huì)一直這樣下去。

但就像石油巨頭一樣，沙特阿美也會(huì)聽(tīng)取股東的意見(jiàn)。值得注意的是，沙特阿拉伯王國(guó)是沙特阿美的主要股東，擁有壓倒性的98%的股份，即使在去年大肆炒作的首次公開(kāi)募股之后，沙特阿拉伯王國(guó)仍在繼續(xù)影響公司的戰(zhàn)略、稅收、股利政策，甚至是石油生產(chǎn)水平。畢竟，沙特阿拉伯是歐佩克和歐佩克+生產(chǎn)協(xié)定的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人。

今年油價(jià)暴跌后，沙特阿美的收入和利潤(rùn)下降，債務(wù)飆升，這也是由于收購(gòu)了石油化工巨頭沙特基礎(chǔ)工業(yè)公司。不過(guò)全球所有石油公司都受到了石油價(jià)格暴跌的影響，因此財(cái)政狀況的惡化一點(diǎn)也不奇怪。

對(duì)大型石油公司而言，疫情造成的損失已令股價(jià)承壓，并加大了投資者要求減排的呼聲。對(duì)沙特阿美來(lái)說(shuō)，利潤(rùn)的降低和債務(wù)的增加對(duì)沙特整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)以及王儲(chǔ)穆罕默德·本·薩勒曼(Mohammed bin Salman)利用沙特獲得的石油收入實(shí)現(xiàn)沙特2030年經(jīng)濟(jì)多元化的計(jì)劃都造成直接打擊。

沙特阿美目前正在努力控制危機(jī)造成的損失，同時(shí)遵守向股東每年發(fā)放750億美元股息的承諾。該公司已經(jīng)削減了資本支出(capex)，據(jù)報(bào)道，隨著現(xiàn)金流和利潤(rùn)的減少以及債務(wù)的增加，該公司正在考慮進(jìn)一步削減資本支出。

沙特阿美在第二季度財(cái)報(bào)中預(yù)測(cè)，2020年資本支出將在250億至300億美元之間。今年8月，英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》曾報(bào)道稱(chēng)，沙特阿美正考慮進(jìn)一步削減資本支出，以支付其巨額股息。

在本周公布的一次采訪中，沙特阿美首席執(zhí)行官阿明·納賽爾（Amin Nasser）表示，這家石油巨頭目前正尋求優(yōu)化其投資組合，并從中“擠出”更多價(jià)值，包括可能出售資產(chǎn)。

納賽爾表示:“我們將正確地做這件事，并將確保公司執(zhí)行的事情符合我們的長(zhǎng)期愿景——保留我們核心業(yè)務(wù)的戰(zhàn)略，以及與我們的合作伙伴可以?xún)?yōu)化的戰(zhàn)略。將專(zhuān)注于增長(zhǎng)機(jī)遇，同時(shí)進(jìn)一步強(qiáng)化戰(zhàn)略重點(diǎn)，優(yōu)化投資組合，從而為股東創(chuàng)造最大價(jià)值。"

王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價(jià)

原文如下：

For years, if not decades, OPEC members have been jousting for market share, which is, of course, the reason why the latest Saudi-Russia oil price war happened in the first place.

Indeed, Saudi Arabia’s state oil giant Aramco has just declared that it does not believe in peak oil demand and plans to double down on boosting oil production in the long term to beat its competitors despite many pledging significant investments in low-carbon energy.

Aramco has said: “We expect oil demand growth to continue in the long term, driven by rising populations and economic growth. Fuels and petrochemicals will support demand growth ... speculation about an imminent peak in oil demand is simply not consistent with the realities of oil consumption.”

The natural gas market is not much better off, with producers treading on the same path as their oil brethren.

Qatar, the biggest LNG exporter, recently announced that it will go ahead with its massive liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacity expansion by betting that it can beat other LNG producers through low production costs and co-production of condensates and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).

The world's largest oil company, state-held Saudi Aramco, is looking to withstand the crisis created by the worst oil demand crash in history—by doubling down on oil.

Saudi Aramco is determined to outlast peak oil demand—whenever this occurs—and to squeeze every dollar it can from its portfolio and from Saudi Arabia's remaining oil reserves.

Unlike many major international oil companies, the Saudi state giant is not pledging a shift to low-carbon energy or net-zero emissions. Its core business is pumping low-cost oil in Saudi Arabia, and it will remain such for as long as the world needs oil.

But just like Big Oil, Saudi Aramco listens to its shareholders. The caveat is that Aramco's majority shareholder with an overwhelming 98 percent is the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, which—even after the much-hyped IPO last year—continues to influence the company's strategy, taxation, dividend policy, and even the level of oil production. After all, Saudi Arabia is the leader of OPEC and of the OPEC+ production pact.

After the price crash this year, Aramco's revenues and profits dropped, and debt soared, also because of the acquisition of petrochemicals giant SABIC. The worsening of the finances was no surprise at all, considering that every oil company in the world suffered from the collapse in oil prices, created by the pandemic and by Saudi Arabia itself, which flooded the market with oil with record-high exports in April when global demand was crashing by 20 million barrels per day (bpd).

For Big Oil, losses in the pandemic have weighed on share prices and have intensified calls from investors for emissions reductions. For Aramco, the lower profits and higher debts are a direct hit to the whole economy of Saudi Arabia and to the plans of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to diversify the Kingdom's economy 2030, by using the oil money Saudi Arabia gets.

Damage Control

Aramco is now trying to contain the damage from this year's crisis, while keeping the pledge to pay out annual dividends of US$75 billion to shareholders, the Kingdom being the largest of them.

The Saudi oil giant has cut capital expenditure (capex) and is reportedly looking at further cuts amid reduced cash flows and profits and mounting debt to levels above the company's targets.

Aramco guided in the Q2 results release for capex at the lower end of the US$25 billion-US$30 billion range for 2020. In August, the Financial Times reported that Aramco was considering additional cuts to its capex in order to be able to pay its massive dividends, the vast majority of which goes to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

The oil giant is now looking to optimize its portfolio and "squeeze" more value out of it, including by potentially selling assets, Aramco's chief executive Amin Nasser told Energy Intelligence in an interview published this week.

"We're going to do it right and will make sure what's executed by this organization is in line with our long-term view -- the strategy of retaining our core businesses in-house and what can be optimized with our partner," Nasser told Energy Intelligence.

Two months ago, Aramco created a Corporate Development unit, which "will focus on growth opportunities as we further sharpen and strengthen our strategic focus to optimize our portfolio and, in doing so, maximize value for our shareholders," Nasser said at the time.