美國(guó)天然氣價(jià)格主要走勢(shì)將由LNG需求決定

據(jù)10月9日FX Empire報(bào)道，天然氣期貨價(jià)格周五小幅走高，因?yàn)樵絹?lái)越多的人認(rèn)為Delta颶風(fēng)對(duì)當(dāng)?shù)匾夯烊粴馍a(chǎn)的影響將很小。交易員們正在密切關(guān)注這一情況，因?yàn)橐粋€(gè)終端一旦受到直接打擊，可能會(huì)讓它在一段時(shí)間內(nèi)無(wú)法使用，這將削減液化天然氣需求，而在冬季需求季節(jié)到來(lái)之前，液化天然氣需要考慮到儲(chǔ)量問(wèn)題。

格林尼治標(biāo)準(zhǔn)時(shí)間9點(diǎn)58分，12月天然氣期貨價(jià)格為3.164美元，上漲0.015美元，漲幅為0.48%。

EIA報(bào)告稱，截至10月2日的這個(gè)周末，美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)天然氣供應(yīng)量增加了750億立方英尺。分析師預(yù)計(jì)將增長(zhǎng)710億立方英尺。政府稱，目前總庫(kù)存為3.831萬(wàn)億立方英尺，較去年增加4440億立方英尺，比五年平均水平高出3940億立方英尺。

NGI在EIA儲(chǔ)存報(bào)告發(fā)布前稱，分析師預(yù)估增幅在700億立方英尺左右。接受彭博社調(diào)查的7位分析師給出的預(yù)測(cè)為670億至850億立方英尺，中位數(shù)為730億立方英尺?！度A爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查也得出了同樣的結(jié)果，但調(diào)查的中值為740億立方英尺。路透社調(diào)查的預(yù)估中值為730億立方英尺，NGI認(rèn)為將達(dá)到750億立方英尺。

EIA報(bào)告看跌，但交易商關(guān)注Delta颶風(fēng)及其對(duì)液化天然氣需求的可能影響。液化天然氣設(shè)施遭受直接打擊造成損害，將導(dǎo)致產(chǎn)量和船運(yùn)減少，可能對(duì)價(jià)格產(chǎn)生看跌影響。如果颶風(fēng)沒(méi)有來(lái)襲，而且設(shè)施沒(méi)有受損，航運(yùn)也沒(méi)有延誤，那么價(jià)格可能會(huì)因?yàn)轭A(yù)期更高的需求而上漲。

目前，需要液化天然氣的強(qiáng)勁需求和取暖需求的共同作用，才能在大約一個(gè)月的時(shí)間內(nèi)避免庫(kù)存問(wèn)題。

王佳晶 摘譯自 FX Empire

原文如下：

Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Next Major Move Determined by LNG Demand

Natural gas futures are inching higher on Friday on increasing bets that the impact of Hurricane Delta will be minimal on liquefied natural gas production in the region. Traders are monitoring the situation closely because a direct hit on a facility could put it out of commission for some time. This would cut into LNG demand, which is needed to prevent storage issues before the winter demand season.

At 09:58 GMT, December natural gas futures are trading $3.164, up $0.015 or +0.48%.

US Energy Information Administration Weekly Storage Report

The U.S. EIA reported Thursday that domestic supplies of natural gas rose by 75 billion cubic feet for the week-ended October 2. On average, analysts forecast an increase of 71 billion cubic feet. Total stocks now stand at 3.831 trillion cubic feet, up 444 billion cubic feet from a year ago, and 394 billion cubic feet above the five-year average, the government said.

NGI reported ahead of the EIA storage report that analyst estimates hovered around a build in the low to mid-70s Bcf. The seven analysts surveyed by Bloomberg responded with estimates ranging from 67 Bcf to 85 Bcf, with a median of 73 Bcf. A Wall Street Journal poll had the same range but arrived at a median of 74 Bcf. A Reuters poll with the same range of projections had a median of 73 Bcf. NGI pegged the build at 75 Bcf.

Daily Forecast

The EIA report was bearish, but traders are focusing on Hurricane Delta and its possible impact on LNG demand.

A direct hit of an LNG facility that causes damage could exert a bearish influence on prices because it will curtail production and shipping.

If Hurricane Delta misses and there is no damage to facilities or any delays in shipping then prices could rise because of expectations of higher demand.

At this time, it’s going to take a combination of strong LNG demand and heating demand to prevent storage problems in about a month.