天然氣市場將主導(dǎo)美國能源結(jié)構(gòu)數(shù)十年

據(jù)今日油價網(wǎng)站9月26日消息 天然氣最初被譽(yù)為過去化石燃料和未來可再生能源之間的橋梁，后來遭到了抨擊，因?yàn)楸M管天然氣比石油和煤炭更清潔，但并不是完全無排放。根據(jù)能源市場顧問公司的一份新報告，天然氣將在20年后主導(dǎo)美國的能源結(jié)構(gòu)。

這種持續(xù)主導(dǎo)地位的原因很簡單，即使對太陽能和風(fēng)能等可再生能源的最強(qiáng)硬支持者來說，這些理由可能會令人不快。天然氣不僅價格便宜，而且其供應(yīng)也是連續(xù)不斷。重要的是，它不需要像太陽能和風(fēng)能那樣需要電池儲存，這就增加了這種裝置的總成本，即使其他成本正在下降。

報告稱，這些成本的下降無疑將為北美地區(qū)更多的太陽能和風(fēng)能重能源組合鋪平道路，而煤炭則被遺忘，部分原因是其經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況惡化。到2044年，現(xiàn)有的煤炭發(fā)電能力將減少近一半。與此同時，太陽能發(fā)電量將從今年的60吉瓦增長到2044年的約250吉瓦，呈現(xiàn)驚人的四倍增長。風(fēng)能也將從現(xiàn)在的115吉瓦增長到2044年的191吉瓦，盡管增長幅度較小，但天然氣會主導(dǎo)一切。

到目前為止，天然氣占北美能源生產(chǎn)的41%。據(jù)日立ABB旗下能源市場顧問公司預(yù)測，2044年，天然氣將占43%。與太陽能和風(fēng)能的爆炸性增長相比，這似乎并不特別令人印象深刻。然而，值得注意的是，即使在這種幾乎沒有增長的情況下，天然氣將成為推動北美發(fā)電量最大部分的燃料，這意味著化石燃料時代還遠(yuǎn)未結(jié)束。

王磊 摘譯自 今日油價

原文如下：

Natural Gas Will Rule The US Energy Market For Decades

Natural gas was first hailed as the bridge between the fossil fuel past and the renewable future. Then it came under fire because although cleaner than oil and coal, it is not entirely emission-free. But according to a new report from Energy Market Advisors, it will rule the energy mix of the United States even 20 years from now.

The reasons for this continued dominance are simple enough even if they may be unpleasant for the most hard-line supporters of renewables such as solar and wind. Gas is not only cheap, but its supply is also continuous, so, importantly, it does not need battery storage the way solar and wind do, which increases the total costs of such installations even if other costs are falling, which they are.

These falling costs will undoubtedly pave the way to much more solar- and wind-heavy energy mix across North America, while coal sinks into oblivion, partly driven by its worse economics, the report said. By 2044, close to half of the existing coal power generation capacity will be gone. At the same time, solar will grow from 60 GW this year to some 250 GW in 2044 – an impressive fourfold growth. Wind will grow, too, albeit more modestly, from 115 GW today to 191 GW in 2044. But gas will rule them all.

To date, natural gas accounts for some 41 percent of North American energy generation. In 2044, according to Energy Market Advisors, a division of Hitachi ABB, gas will account for 43 percent. This, compared with the explosive growth seen in solar and wind, does not seem particularly impressive. The thing to remember is, however, that even with this almost absent growth, gas will be the fuel driving the biggest portion of power generation in North America. And this means that the fossil fuel era is far from over, really.