交易商不敢放松對石油市場的監(jiān)控

據(jù)9月27日FX Empire報道，由于疫苗研發(fā)成功與否和歐佩克減產(chǎn)具有很大的不確定性，石油市場極不穩(wěn)定。

市場出現(xiàn)波動，美國西德克薩斯中質原油和國際基準布倫特原油期貨價格上周收盤走低。在前一周的大規(guī)模空頭回補反彈之后，沒有出現(xiàn)任何重大消息，但一有悲觀消息就足以限制漲幅，當然一有看漲消息，也足以支撐價格。

價格走勢表明，石油可能會像7月和8月那樣在價格較低的區(qū)間內(nèi)進行交易。不過，隨著全球冠狀病毒疫情復發(fā)，預計需求將減少。

上周，12月WTI原油價格收于每桶40.51美元，下跌1.10美元，跌幅為2.64%，12月布倫特原油價格收于每桶42.41美元，下跌1.27美元，跌幅為2.99%。

要注意的是，市場對需求的擔憂打壓了價格。上周，冠狀病毒感染病例的增加抑制了價格上漲。在歐洲和亞洲，冠狀病毒感染的數(shù)量每天都在創(chuàng)記錄，新的限制措施正在實施，這可能會限制出行和燃料需求。

印度的情況也在惡化。由于冠狀病毒病例激增阻礙了工業(yè)和運輸活動，燃料需求減弱，該國8月份煉油廠的產(chǎn)量較上年同期下降了26.4%，為四個月來最大降幅。而且這些問題也不是歐洲和亞洲獨有的。在美國，上周初失業(yè)金領取人數(shù)意外上升，透露出經(jīng)濟復蘇的乏力，燃料需求減少。

世界最大石油消費國美國的新冠肺炎感染病例在增加。中西部地區(qū)的病例再次出現(xiàn)，而今年春季遭受重創(chuàng)的紐約市也正在考慮延長出行限制期限。

出行限制可能是交易員近期最擔心的問題，尤其是對航空公司來說，旅游業(yè)受嚴重沖擊，今年以來，從未真正從病毒的第一波浪潮中緩過神。

上周公布的政府數(shù)據(jù)顯示，四周汽油平均需求較上年同期下降9%。由于冠狀病毒數(shù)量的增加減緩了經(jīng)濟復蘇，短期內(nèi)需求可能會繼續(xù)減弱。

從供應方面來看，上周的政府庫存報告來看是看漲的，但這并沒有推高本周的價格。這進一步證明，需求是主要問題。

EIA數(shù)據(jù)顯示，截至9月18日當周，美國原油、汽油和餾分油庫存均下降。原油庫存減少160萬桶，低于預期；汽油庫存下降400萬桶，降幅超過預期;而餾分油庫存則意外減少340萬桶。

盡管歐佩克+正盡最大努力通過大規(guī)模減產(chǎn)來限制全球供應，并且表示，如果有需要，還可以擴大減產(chǎn)規(guī)模，但如果利比亞向市場輸送更多石油，就可能會出現(xiàn)問題。

預計，只要全球新冠肺炎病例數(shù)量繼續(xù)上升，短期內(nèi)貿(mào)易就會減少，而最大的擔憂將是美國、歐洲和亞洲再度出臺出行限制措施。

其他可能打壓油價的因素是美元走強，這會減少外國對以美元計價的原油的需求。這與美國經(jīng)濟的實力是緊密相連的。

王佳晶 摘譯自 FX Empire

原文如下：

Oil Price Fundamental Weekly Forecast – Traders Centered on COVID-19 as Rising Global Cases Keep Lid on Prices

The wild cards are the coronavirus vaccine and the OPEC+ production cuts. A vaccine will reduce the number of cases and ease restrictions.

U. S. West Texas Intermediate and international-benchmark Brent crude oil futures finished lower last week while posting inside moves. The chart pattern indicates investor indecision and impending volatility. The fundamentals also supported the inside trade. There wasn’t any blockbuster news following the previous week’s massive short-covering rally, but just enough bearish news to cap gains and bullish news to underpin prices.

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The price action also indicates we could be in for a rangebound trade just like the one we saw in July and August albeit at lower prices. The rangebound trade reflects similar fundamentals. The lower prices, however, indicate expectations of lower demand due to a resurgence in global coronavirus cases.

Last week, December WTI crude oil settled at $40.51, down $1.10 or -2.64% and December Brent crude oil finished at $42.41, down $1.27 or -2.99%.

Demand Concerns Weigh on Prices

Rising coronavirus cases helped put a lid on prices last week. In Europe and Asia, daily increases of coronavirus infections are hitting records and new restrictions are being put in place that will likely limit travel and fuel demand.

The situation is also worsening in India where throughput by crude oil refiners in August fell 26.4% from a year ago, the most in four months, as fuel demand ebbed because surging coronavirus cases hindered industrial and transport activity.

And the problems are not isolated in Europe and Asia either. In the United States, unemployment claims unexpectedly rose last week suggesting an economic recovery is sputtering and pushing down fuel demand.

Infections are also rising in the U.S., the world’s top oil consumer. We’re seeing a resurgence of COVID-19 cases in the Midwest, while New York City, which was hit hardest in the spring, is considering renewed shutdown mandates.

Travel constraints are likely to be the biggest concern for traders over the near-term. Since the travel industry – especially airlines – never really recovered from the first wave of the virus.

Government data showed last week that the four-week average of gasoline demand was 9% below a year earlier. Demand is likely to weaken over the near-term because the increasing coronavirus numbers are slowing the economic recovery.

Don’t Forget About Supply

By all means and measures, last week’s government inventories report was bullish, but that didn’t drive prices higher for the week. This is further evidence that demand is the major concern.

U. S. crude, gasoline and distillate inventories all fell the week-ending September 18, EIA data showed. Crude inventories fell by 1.6 million barrels, less than forecast; gasoline stocks dropped more than expected, sliding by 4 million barrels; while distillate stockpiles posted a surprise drawdown of 3.4 million barrels.

Although OPEC+ is doing its best to curtail global supply with its massive production cuts, and could do more if called upon, there could be a problem if Libya brings more oil to the market.

Weekly Forecast

We’re expecting a sideways-to-lower trade over the near-term as long as the number of COVID-19 cases continue to rise worldwide. On the downside, the biggest concern will be renewed restrictions in the U.S., Europe and Asia.

Other factors that could weigh on prices is a stronger U.S. Dollar that tends to reduce foreign demand for dollar-denominated crude oil. This goes hand in hand with the strength of the U.S. economy.