EIA預(yù)計(jì)明年年底全球石油市場(chǎng)將趨于平衡

據(jù)今日油價(jià)網(wǎng)站9月23日消息 美國(guó)能源信息署（EIA）周三表示，歐佩克+在美國(guó)的減產(chǎn)將有助于全球庫(kù)存在今年剩余和明年大部分時(shí)間里繼續(xù)減少，從而在2021年底之前形成一個(gè)相對(duì)平衡的市場(chǎng)。

EIA估計(jì)，歐佩克+協(xié)議以及其他地區(qū)（主要是北美地區(qū)）的產(chǎn)量下降，使全球供應(yīng)自2019年年中以來首次低于需求水平，并指出，供應(yīng)赤字使得膨脹的全球庫(kù)存自6月以來下滑。

EIA在其9月短期能源展望（STEO）中稱：“預(yù)計(jì)庫(kù)存將在2020年下半年和2021年的大部分時(shí)間內(nèi)繼續(xù)下降，從而在明年年底之前形成一個(gè)相對(duì)平衡的市場(chǎng)。”

8月，由于歐佩克+和美國(guó)減產(chǎn)，全球液體燃料產(chǎn)量平均為9150萬桶/日，同比下降970萬桶/日。

美國(guó)8月原油產(chǎn)量從5月的1000萬桶/日的近期低點(diǎn)升至1080萬桶/日，據(jù)EIA估計(jì)，石油運(yùn)營(yíng)商在第二季度暴跌后，為應(yīng)對(duì)油價(jià)上漲，部分油井重新上線。

盡管一些專家、官員和分析師表示，全球庫(kù)存正在下降，并將在今年剩余時(shí)間里繼續(xù)減少，但其他人則將需求復(fù)蘇乏力和COVID-19的死灰復(fù)燃作為對(duì)未來幾個(gè)月庫(kù)存下降前景保持謹(jǐn)慎的理由。

例如，全球最大的獨(dú)立石油交易商維多集團(tuán)預(yù)計(jì)，在今年剩余時(shí)間內(nèi)全球石油庫(kù)存將繼續(xù)減少。

但另一家主要大宗商品交易商托克則預(yù)計(jì)，今年年底前市場(chǎng)將呈現(xiàn)以供應(yīng)為主的局面，隨著需求復(fù)蘇停滯，到2020年底庫(kù)存將增加。

王磊 摘譯自 今日油

原文如下：

EIA Sees Global Oil Market Balancing By End-2021

The OPEC+ production cuts and curtailments in the United States are set to help global inventories to continue drawing down for the rest of the year and most of next year, resulting in a relatively balanced market by the end of 2021, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday.

The OPEC+ deal and the production drops elsewhere, most of all in North America, have brought global supply below the level of demand for the first time since the middle of 2019, the EIA estimated, noting that the supply deficit has helped bloated global inventories to decline since June.

“EIA expects inventories to continue declining in the second half of 2020 and during most of 2021, resulting in a relatively balanced market by the end of next year,” it said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) for September.

In August, global liquid fuels production averaged 91.5 million bpd, down by 9.7 million bpd year over year, due to the OPEC+ cuts and U.S. curtailments.

U.S. crude oil production in August rose to 10.8 million bpd from a recent low of 10.0 million bpd in May as oil operators brought some wells back online in response to rising prices after the slump in Q2, as per EIA’s estimates.

While some experts, officials, and analysts say that global inventories are declining and will continue to draw down through the rest of the year, others have flagged faltering demand recovery and resurging COVID-19 cases as reasons for being careful about the outlook on inventory drawdowns in the coming months.

Vitol Group, the world’s largest independent oil trader, for example, expects global oil inventories to continue drawing down for the rest of the year.

But another major commodity trader, Trafigura, expects a "supply-heavy" market through the end of the year, with inventories building by the end of 2020 as the demand recovery stalls.