美國油氣行業(yè)持續(xù)收縮 下降步伐有所緩和

據(jù)9月23日Dallasfed消息：根據(jù)達(dá)拉斯聯(lián)邦儲備銀行能源調(diào)查，油氣行業(yè)高管表示，2020年第三季度油氣行業(yè)活動略有下降。商業(yè)活動指數(shù)是該調(diào)查針對第十一區(qū)能源公司最廣泛條件的衡量指標(biāo)，仍處于負(fù)數(shù)范圍，但從第二季度的-66.1上升至第三季度的-6.6，這表明收縮速度已大大降低。

生產(chǎn)指數(shù)大幅上升，但仍為負(fù)值，表明生產(chǎn)下滑放緩。根據(jù)勘探與生產(chǎn)高管的數(shù)據(jù)，石油生產(chǎn)指數(shù)從第二季度的-62.6上升到第三季度的-15.4。天然氣產(chǎn)量指數(shù)上升38點，至-10.1。

勘探開發(fā)公司資本支出指數(shù)從第二季度的-66.1升至第三季度的-16.4，表明資本支出的降幅較小。此外，油田服務(wù)公司的資本支出指數(shù)從-73.5增加到-35.1。

油田服務(wù)公司的狀況繼續(xù)惡化，盡管惡化速度有所減緩。第三季度設(shè)備利用率指數(shù)躍升50點，至-18.9，意味著利用率下降，但降幅遠(yuǎn)低于前季。營業(yè)利潤率指數(shù)從-68.6增加到-30.8。服務(wù)業(yè)的物價指數(shù)保持在負(fù)數(shù)范圍內(nèi)，但從-64.7上升至-26.4。隨著投入成本的持續(xù)下降，企業(yè)得到了一些緩解，該指數(shù)本季度為-9.5。

與勞工相關(guān)的指標(biāo)再次下降，但增速較上個季度溫和。就業(yè)總指數(shù)連續(xù)第六個月為負(fù)，但從-46.1升至-18.1。此外，雇員總工作時數(shù)指數(shù)由-47.0升至-15.3。工資和福利總額指數(shù)仍為負(fù)值，但從-41.7升至-19.4。

第三季度，公司前景指數(shù)回到了勉強為正的水平，為1.9。該數(shù)據(jù)接近于零，表明經(jīng)濟前景保持相對不變，較前兩個季度的急劇惡化有所穩(wěn)定。此外，與上一季度相比，本季度注意到不確定性上升的公司較少，總體不確定性指數(shù)下降19點，至17.2。

平均而言，受訪者預(yù)計到2020年底，西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油價格將達(dá)到43.27美元/桶，反應(yīng)區(qū)間在每桶30-60美元之間。調(diào)查參與者預(yù)計到年底，Henry Hub天然氣價格將達(dá)到2.55美元/百萬英熱。作為參考，WTI現(xiàn)貨價格在調(diào)查收集期間平均為38.47美元/桶，Henry Hub現(xiàn)貨價格平均為2.05美元/百萬英熱。

馮娟 摘譯自 Dallasfed

原文如下：

Contraction Continues in Oil and Gas Sector but Pace of Decline Has Moderated

Activity in the oil and gas sector declined modestly in third quarter 2020, according to oil and gas executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey. The business activity index—the survey’s broadest measure of conditions facing Eleventh District energy firms—remained in negative territory but improved from -66.1 in the second quarter to -6.6 in the third quarter, suggesting that the pace of the contraction has significantly lessened.

Production indexes rose significantly but remained negative, suggesting a moderation in production declines. According to exploration and production (E&P) executives, the oil production index rose from -62.6 in the second quarter to -15.4 in the third. The natural gas production index increased 38 points to -10.1.

The index for capital expenditures for E&P firms increased from -66.1 in the second quarter to -16.4 in the third, indicating a less-severe reduction in capital spending. This means that expenditures are declining but not as much as before. Additionally, the index for capital expenditures for oilfield services firms increased from -73.5 to -35.1.

Conditions among oilfield services firms continued to deteriorate, albeit at a slower rate. The equipment utilization index jumped 50 points to -18.9 in the third quarter, implying utilization declined but at a much slower pace than over the prior quarter. The operating margins index increased from -68.6 to -30.8. The index of prices received for services also remained in negative territory but moved up, from -64.7 to -26.4. Firms found some relief as the input costs continued to decline; the index was -9.5 this quarter.

Labor-related indicators fell again, but at a more modest pace than last quarter. The aggregate employment index posted a sixth consecutive negative reading but moved up from -46.1 to -18.1. Additionally, the index of aggregate employee hours worked increased from -47.0 to -15.3. The index for aggregate wages and benefits remained in negative territory but rose from -41.7 to -19.4.

The company outlook index returned to barely positive territory in the third quarter, coming in at 1.9. The near-zero reading indicates the outlook remained relatively unchanged, a stabilization from the sharp deterioration seen over the prior two quarters. Additionally, fewer firms noted rising uncertainty this quarter than last, and the aggregate uncertainty index fell 19 points to 17.2.

On average, respondents expect a West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price of $43.27 per barrel by year-end 2020, with responses ranging from $30 to $60 per barrel. Survey participants expect Henry Hub natural gas prices to be $2.55 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) by year-end. For reference, WTI spot prices averaged $38.47 per barrel during the survey collection period, and Henry Hub spot prices averaged $2.05 per MMBtu.