美國(guó)今年的鉆井總量將是80多年來最低水平

據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)9月21日?qǐng)?bào)道，世界石油公司(World Oil)已經(jīng)完成了2020年中期鉆井和生產(chǎn)預(yù)測(cè)更新的編制。在鉆井方面，如果這一預(yù)測(cè)成為現(xiàn)實(shí)，美國(guó)今年的總鉆井?dāng)?shù)量將肯定是1940年前以來的最低水平。事實(shí)上，它可以追溯到比上世紀(jì)30年代更早的時(shí)候。

但首先，運(yùn)營(yíng)商必須以低于1933年和1931年鉆井速度的速度進(jìn)行鉆探，當(dāng)時(shí)的鉆井?dāng)?shù)分別為12,170口和11,716口。事實(shí)上，我們所看到的水平可能會(huì)低于這兩年——低于11000口井——這是相當(dāng)具有歷史意義的，盡管非常負(fù)面?？紤]到僅去年，估計(jì)鉆井?dāng)?shù)量就超過了22000口，2018年，估計(jì)約為25000口。出于同樣的原因，六年前，也就是2014年，美國(guó)油井總數(shù)為45535口。自那以后，每年的總數(shù)從未超過3萬。

業(yè)績(jī)背后的趨勢(shì)。自今年2月初以來一直關(guān)注石油市場(chǎng)趨勢(shì)的任何人都不會(huì)感到驚訝，今年的總趨勢(shì)可能會(huì)低于1.1萬口。在隨后的七個(gè)月里，美國(guó)市場(chǎng)受到了以下因素的沖擊：新冠疫情帶來的創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄、快速的石油需求減少；沙特-俄羅斯在生產(chǎn)配額問題上的爭(zhēng)議加劇了需求減少的影響；運(yùn)營(yíng)商對(duì)隨后出現(xiàn)的低價(jià)格的快速反應(yīng)，包括關(guān)閉油井和減少或停止鉆井；以及美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)從疫情中復(fù)蘇的速度低于預(yù)期。

經(jīng)營(yíng)者對(duì)低價(jià)和需求的反應(yīng)。 更具體地說，世界石油公司(World Oil)收到了數(shù)十家生產(chǎn)商的調(diào)查回復(fù)，他們從今年第一季度的水平上削減了鉆井量，而且大幅削減。許多公司表示，今年下半年的鉆井?dāng)?shù)只有上半年的一半或不到一半。所以，假設(shè)一個(gè)運(yùn)營(yíng)商可能在上半年鉆了100口井，而在下半年只鉆了40口?；蛘撸患夜驹谏习肽赉@了65口井，而計(jì)劃在下半年只鉆20口。這些數(shù)字并不是任何一家公司的實(shí)際數(shù)字，但它們代表了我們接收到的數(shù)據(jù)類型。

此外，應(yīng)該記住，2019年并不是最大鉆探年份的開始。今年第一季度大多數(shù)運(yùn)營(yíng)商的鉆井速度與去年大致相當(dāng)。但從那時(shí)起，鉆井就陷入了困境。今年第二季度，石油產(chǎn)量大幅下降，包括一些暫停鉆井的公司。這些削減一直延續(xù)到第三季度，有些甚至比第二季度還要嚴(yán)重。我們預(yù)計(jì)，第四季度美國(guó)鉆井活動(dòng)將緩慢回升，我們的預(yù)測(cè)中也包含了這一預(yù)期。因此，如果這個(gè)數(shù)字沒有上升，那么今年的最終數(shù)字將相應(yīng)地更低。

區(qū)域的影響。毫不奇怪，美國(guó)多個(gè)頁(yè)巖區(qū)感受到了鉆探低谷期的最大影響，如石油活動(dòng)一直占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位的二疊紀(jì)、鷹福特（Eagle Ford）、Bakken和Niobrara。然而，盡管傾氣性的Marcellus、Haynesville和Utica頁(yè)巖（的確有石油成分）的鉆探量出現(xiàn)了兩位數(shù)的下降，但它們的傾油性區(qū)塊的鉆探量卻沒有下降。此外，在一些較小的州也有一些亮點(diǎn)，在這些州，傳統(tǒng)的、垂直的、有時(shí)是淺層的石油開采活動(dòng)更為普遍，實(shí)際上還會(huì)有小幅增長(zhǎng)。

郝芬 譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

U.S. drilling total for 2020 will be lowest in more than 80 years

At World Oil, we have finished compiling the 2020 mid-year forecast update for drilling and production. On the drilling side, that if this forecast is realized, the U.S. total for the year will definitely be the lowest since before 1940. Indeed, it could go back considerably further than the 1930s.

But first, operators will have to drill at a pace lower than those of 1933 and 1931, when well totals of 12,170 and 11,716, respectively, were tallied. The fact that we are looking at a level potentially below these two years—below 11,000 wells—is quite historical, albeit remarkably negative. And consider the fact that just last year, we estimate that somewhat over 22,000 wells were drilled, and in 2018, the number is estimated at approximately 25,000. By the same token, it wasn’t but six years ago, in 2014, that the U.S. well total was 45,535. There has not been an annual total above 30,000 since then.

Trends behind the performance. This year’s trend toward a total that may be below 11,000 should come as no surprise to anyone, who has been following oil market trends since early February. In the seven months that have followed, the U.S. market has been hit by a record, quick, oil demand reduction prompted by the coronavirus pandemic; the Saudi-Russian dispute over production quotas that exacerbated the effect of the demand reduction; operators’ quick response to low prices that ensued, including shutting-in wells and reducing or halting drilling; and a slower-than-expected recovery from the pandemic in the U.S. economy.

Operator responses to low prices and demand. To be more specific about operator activity, World Oil has received dozens of survey responses from producers, which have cut back their drilling from first-quarter 2020 levels, not just substantially but actually quite drastically. A number of companies said that in the second half of the year, they are drilling half, or less than half, of the number of wells that they drilled in the first half. So, imagine that an operator might have drilled 100 wells in the first half and will only drill 40 in the second half. Or maybe a firm drilled 65 wells in the first half and plans only 20 in the second half. These figures are NOT any one company’s actual numbers, but they are representative of the types of data that we have been receiving.

Furthermore, one should remember that 2019 was not the greatest drilling year to begin with, and first-quarter drilling by most operators was roughly on a par with that year’s pace. But since then, drilling has gone off the cliff. There were substantial reductions during second-quarter 2020, including some companies that went on a drilling hiatus. These reductions have been carried through, into the third quarter, with a few that are even deeper than in the second quarter. We expect a mild pick-up in U.S. drilling during the fourth quarter, and our forecast has that expectation baked into it. So, if that pickup does not occur, then the final 2020 number will be even lower, accordingly.

Regional effects. To no one’s surprise, the greatest effects of the drilling trough are being felt in the various U.S. shale plays, such as the Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken and Niobrara, where oil activity has been dominant. However, while they have experienced double-digit declines in drilling, the gas prone Marcellus, Haynesville and Utica (which does have an oil component) shales have not experienced reductions in the magnitude of the oil-prone plays. And there are a few bright spots in some of the more minor states, where traditional, vertical, sometimes-shallow oil activity is more prevalent and will actually have minor increases.