黃金和白銀下跌 石油價(jià)格暴跌

據(jù)9月22日Investing.com報(bào)道，隨著貝塔颶風(fēng)登陸，石油價(jià)格一夜之間暴跌。石油產(chǎn)量重返國(guó)際市場(chǎng)，美元上漲，對(duì)新冠肺炎疫情的擔(dān)憂(yōu)給未來(lái)的消費(fèi)前景蒙上陰影。隨著石油市場(chǎng)基本面的迅速恢復(fù)，近期油價(jià)上漲帶來(lái)的溢價(jià)被無(wú)情地暴露了出來(lái)。

布倫特原油下跌3.25%，至每桶41.65美元，盤(pán)中跌幅超過(guò)4.0%。唯一的利好消息是保持在了在每桶41.00美元的支撐位，100天均線(xiàn)保持得很好。目前阻力在每桶44美元這一遙遠(yuǎn)的關(guān)口。如果100天均線(xiàn)水平無(wú)法維持，將對(duì)關(guān)鍵支撐區(qū)每桶39.30美元至39.50美元帶來(lái)考驗(yàn)。如果油價(jià)下跌，可能會(huì)大幅回調(diào)至每桶36.00美元。

西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油在其200天均線(xiàn)水平上回落，收盤(pán)時(shí)下跌2.70%，至每桶39.80美元。西德克薩斯中質(zhì)油盤(pán)中一度跌至每桶38.70美元的低點(diǎn)，但在今天每桶38.40美元的100天均線(xiàn)水平上，WTI仍未能獲得支撐。如果100-DMA價(jià)格下跌，油價(jià)回到9月份略高于每桶36.00美元的低點(diǎn)似乎是不可避免的。

美國(guó)颶風(fēng)中心(US hurricane centre)網(wǎng)站顯示，墨西哥灣似乎沒(méi)有即將發(fā)生的天氣事件，使這種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(jià)重新計(jì)入價(jià)格。隨著亞洲其他市場(chǎng)的下跌，布倫特和WTI原油在亞洲市場(chǎng)都縮水了0.40%，歐佩克+可能會(huì)再次收到削減產(chǎn)量的呼吁。

金價(jià)和銀價(jià)都在一夜之間暴跌，與股市大幅下跌的關(guān)聯(lián)性似乎又回來(lái)了。黃金價(jià)格一度下跌68.00美元至1882.50美元/盎司，隨后反彈至912.50美元/盎司，下跌1.95%。銀價(jià)當(dāng)日下跌2.50美元，至每盎司23.7美元，收盤(pán)下跌7.70%，至每盎司24.7185美元。

黃金的價(jià)格走勢(shì)表明，在離開(kāi)1905.00美元和1920.00美元之間的支撐位后，出現(xiàn)了一些止損。黃金復(fù)蘇的另一個(gè)明顯跡象是，買(mǎi)家會(huì)在這個(gè)價(jià)位上逢低買(mǎi)進(jìn)。白銀市場(chǎng)可能提供一些線(xiàn)索，因?yàn)榕c黃金相比，白銀從低點(diǎn)反彈的幅度不大。

王佳晶 摘譯自 Investing.com

原文如下：

Gold And Silver Fall, Oil Prices Collapse

Oil prices collapsed overnight, as Hurricane Beta made landfall as a tropical storm.Production returned to international markets, the US dollar rose, and Covid-19 worries clouded the future consumption picture. The hurricane premium built into the recent oil rally was brutally laid bare, with oil market fundamentals quickly reasserting themselves.

Brent crude fell 3.25% to USD41.65 a barrel, having been down over 4.0% intra-day. The only positive note was that support at USD41.00 a barrel, its 100-DMA, held perfectly. Resistance is now distant at USD44.00 a barrel. A failure of the 100-DMA opens up a test of the critical support region between USD39.30 and USD39.50 a barrel. A much deeper correction to USD36.00 a barrel could ensue if the latter gives way.

WTI fell back through its 200-DMA overnight, finishing the session 2.70% lower at USD39.80 a barrel as its weather premium evaporated. WTI fell as low at USD38.70 a barrel intra-day, during a torrid session, but managed to hold clear of support at its 100-DMA, today at USD38.40 a barrel. Should the 100-DMA fail, a return to the September lows just above USD36.00 a barrel seems inevitable.

Looking at the US hurricane centre’s website this morning, there appear to be no impending weather events in the Gulf of Mexico to add that risk premium back into prices. Both contracts have faded by 0.40% in Asia, following the rest of the markets lower. Without the benefit of wind-power, oils negative fundamentals look set to reassert themselves, even if other markets stage a recovery. OPEC+ may yet again receive a call to arms on production cuts.

The curse of being a leading reverse indicator for gold prices struck the author again overnight. Having said yesterday that gold’s balance of probabilities lay high, both it and silver prices crumbled overnight. The correlation to large negative moves in equities seemingly back with a vengeance.

Gold fell USD68.00 to USD1882.50 an ounce at one stage, before rallying to still finish 1.95% lower at USD912.50 an ounce. Silver had an even more torrid day, falling USD2.50 to USD23.7000 an ounce, finishing the day down 7.70% at USD24.7185 an ounce.

Gold’s price action suggests that more than a few stop-losses were executed after support between USD1905.00 and USD1920.00 gave way. Also evident by gold’s recovery is that buyers emerge to snaffle up some bargains at those levels. Whether they remain bargains or not, is still to be seen. Silver markets may give a clue as silver’s bounce of its lows was feeble in comparison to gold. That elegantly allows me to side-step, making another reverse leading indicator call.