黃金和白銀下跌 石油價格暴跌

據(jù)9月22日Investing.com報道，隨著貝塔颶風登陸，石油價格一夜之間暴跌。石油產(chǎn)量重返國際市場，美元上漲，對新冠肺炎疫情的擔憂給未來的消費前景蒙上陰影。隨著石油市場基本面的迅速恢復(fù)，近期油價上漲帶來的溢價被無情地暴露了出來。

布倫特原油下跌3.25%，至每桶41.65美元，盤中跌幅超過4.0%。唯一的利好消息是保持在了在每桶41.00美元的支撐位，100天均線保持得很好。目前阻力在每桶44美元這一遙遠的關(guān)口。如果100天均線水平無法維持，將對關(guān)鍵支撐區(qū)每桶39.30美元至39.50美元帶來考驗。如果油價下跌，可能會大幅回調(diào)至每桶36.00美元。

西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油在其200天均線水平上回落，收盤時下跌2.70%，至每桶39.80美元。西德克薩斯中質(zhì)油盤中一度跌至每桶38.70美元的低點，但在今天每桶38.40美元的100天均線水平上，WTI仍未能獲得支撐。如果100-DMA價格下跌，油價回到9月份略高于每桶36.00美元的低點似乎是不可避免的。

美國颶風中心(US hurricane centre)網(wǎng)站顯示，墨西哥灣似乎沒有即將發(fā)生的天氣事件，使這種風險溢價重新計入價格。隨著亞洲其他市場的下跌，布倫特和WTI原油在亞洲市場都縮水了0.40%，歐佩克+可能會再次收到削減產(chǎn)量的呼吁。

金價和銀價都在一夜之間暴跌，與股市大幅下跌的關(guān)聯(lián)性似乎又回來了。黃金價格一度下跌68.00美元至1882.50美元/盎司，隨后反彈至912.50美元/盎司，下跌1.95%。銀價當日下跌2.50美元，至每盎司23.7美元，收盤下跌7.70%，至每盎司24.7185美元。

黃金的價格走勢表明，在離開1905.00美元和1920.00美元之間的支撐位后，出現(xiàn)了一些止損。黃金復(fù)蘇的另一個明顯跡象是，買家會在這個價位上逢低買進。白銀市場可能提供一些線索，因為與黃金相比，白銀從低點反彈的幅度不大。

王佳晶 摘譯自 Investing.com

原文如下：

Gold And Silver Fall, Oil Prices Collapse

Oil prices collapsed overnight, as Hurricane Beta made landfall as a tropical storm.Production returned to international markets, the US dollar rose, and Covid-19 worries clouded the future consumption picture. The hurricane premium built into the recent oil rally was brutally laid bare, with oil market fundamentals quickly reasserting themselves.

Brent crude fell 3.25% to USD41.65 a barrel, having been down over 4.0% intra-day. The only positive note was that support at USD41.00 a barrel, its 100-DMA, held perfectly. Resistance is now distant at USD44.00 a barrel. A failure of the 100-DMA opens up a test of the critical support region between USD39.30 and USD39.50 a barrel. A much deeper correction to USD36.00 a barrel could ensue if the latter gives way.

WTI fell back through its 200-DMA overnight, finishing the session 2.70% lower at USD39.80 a barrel as its weather premium evaporated. WTI fell as low at USD38.70 a barrel intra-day, during a torrid session, but managed to hold clear of support at its 100-DMA, today at USD38.40 a barrel. Should the 100-DMA fail, a return to the September lows just above USD36.00 a barrel seems inevitable.

Looking at the US hurricane centre’s website this morning, there appear to be no impending weather events in the Gulf of Mexico to add that risk premium back into prices. Both contracts have faded by 0.40% in Asia, following the rest of the markets lower. Without the benefit of wind-power, oils negative fundamentals look set to reassert themselves, even if other markets stage a recovery. OPEC+ may yet again receive a call to arms on production cuts.

The curse of being a leading reverse indicator for gold prices struck the author again overnight. Having said yesterday that gold’s balance of probabilities lay high, both it and silver prices crumbled overnight. The correlation to large negative moves in equities seemingly back with a vengeance.

Gold fell USD68.00 to USD1882.50 an ounce at one stage, before rallying to still finish 1.95% lower at USD912.50 an ounce. Silver had an even more torrid day, falling USD2.50 to USD23.7000 an ounce, finishing the day down 7.70% at USD24.7185 an ounce.

Gold’s price action suggests that more than a few stop-losses were executed after support between USD1905.00 and USD1920.00 gave way. Also evident by gold’s recovery is that buyers emerge to snaffle up some bargains at those levels. Whether they remain bargains or not, is still to be seen. Silver markets may give a clue as silver’s bounce of its lows was feeble in comparison to gold. That elegantly allows me to side-step, making another reverse leading indicator call.