全球煉油商都在艱難地應(yīng)對(duì)需求疲軟和庫存過剩

據(jù)能源世界網(wǎng)9月21日墨爾本/倫敦/紐約報(bào)道，根據(jù)企業(yè)高管、煉油工人和行業(yè)分析師表示，全球煉油企業(yè)因數(shù)月需求低迷和庫存充足而減產(chǎn)，因受新冠疫情影響的需求復(fù)蘇已經(jīng)停滯。

今年春季，由于新冠疫情封鎖摧毀了出行需求，煉油商減產(chǎn)多達(dá)35%。隨著封鎖的緩解，煉油商在8月底緩慢增加產(chǎn)量。但在最大的燃料消費(fèi)國美國和其他地方，煉油商在過去幾周一直在降低燃料價(jià)，以應(yīng)對(duì)庫存增加、需求持續(xù)缺乏以及自然災(zāi)害。

中國是全球第二大燃料消費(fèi)國，在控制住冠狀疫情后，引領(lǐng)全球石油需求復(fù)蘇。

澳大利亞燃料供應(yīng)商Viva能源集團(tuán)(Viva Energy Group Ltd .)首席執(zhí)行官斯科特?懷亞特(Scott Wyatt)本月早些時(shí)候表示，新冠的影響……給我們的煉油業(yè)務(wù)帶來了前所未有的巨大壓力，并且長期來看還不可持續(xù)。

餾分油(包括柴油、航空燃油和取暖油)的庫存通常會(huì)在冬季之前開始增加，而今年的庫存正處于飽和狀態(tài)，將導(dǎo)致未來幾個(gè)月煉油利潤率前景不佳。

根據(jù)美國能源信息署(U.S. Energy Information Administration)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，美國燃料需求同比下降13%。取暖油和柴油的使用量通常會(huì)在秋季上升，但由于庫存超過1.79億桶，接近紀(jì)錄高點(diǎn)，煉油商沒有動(dòng)力繼續(xù)運(yùn)營。

位于巴黎的國際能源署(International Energy Agency)上周兩個(gè)月來第二次下調(diào)了對(duì)今年全球石油需求的預(yù)測(cè)，由于復(fù)蘇步履蹣跚。根據(jù)能源監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)預(yù)測(cè)，2020年全球石油和液體燃料的日均消耗量將為9170萬桶，比先前的預(yù)測(cè)減少20萬桶，較2019年的1.001億桶減少840萬桶。

美國煉油廠的燃料產(chǎn)量仍比疫情前減少了20%。印度、日本和韓國的煉油廠從7月和8月開始降低產(chǎn)能。

Argus首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家David Fyfe在本月早些時(shí)候的一次網(wǎng)絡(luò)會(huì)議上表示:“即便經(jīng)濟(jì)出現(xiàn)U型復(fù)蘇，需求仍可能比2019年第四季時(shí)低200萬桶/天左右?！?/span>

今年9-11月的季節(jié)性維護(hù)期間，亞洲的燃料產(chǎn)量可能會(huì)進(jìn)一步下降，世界各地的一些工廠預(yù)計(jì)將關(guān)閉。

澳大利亞Viva表示，除非冠狀病毒引發(fā)的限制措施得到放松，需求回升，否則該公司可能被迫永久關(guān)閉其位于維多利亞的Geelong煉油廠，以減少虧損。澳大利亞政府提議花費(fèi)數(shù)十億美元來維持該國剩余的四家煉油廠的運(yùn)營。

作為亞洲市場(chǎng)風(fēng)向標(biāo)的新加坡綜合煉油利潤率，在連續(xù)四個(gè)月虧損之后，8月略有上升，9月上半月為負(fù)。

在美國，煉油利潤徘徊在每桶9美元左右，接近4月份的最低水平。煉油商通常不會(huì)從產(chǎn)品上獲利，除非價(jià)差(原油和燃料之間的價(jià)差)高于10美元。

據(jù)知情人士透露，為節(jié)省現(xiàn)金，費(fèi)城和芝加哥地區(qū)的數(shù)家煉廠已推遲了今年秋季的生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃?？偟膩碚f，關(guān)閉進(jìn)行季節(jié)性維護(hù)的煉油廠比往常要少。

日本是世界第三大原油進(jìn)口國，截至9月12日當(dāng)周，其煉油利用率從8月中旬的近72％降至65.9％。

韓國最大的煉油商SK創(chuàng)新有限公司(SK Innovation Co Ltd)發(fā)言人表示，該公司正在考慮進(jìn)一步降低其旗下兩家煉油廠的原油加工量。此前，該公司將9-10月原油平均利用率從7-8月的85%降至80%。

郝芬 譯自 能源世界網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Oil refiners worldwide struggle with weak demand, inventory glut

Global oil refiners reeling from months of lackluster demand and an abundance of inventories are cutting fuel production into the autumn because the recovery in demand from the impact of coronavirus has stalled, according to executives, refinery workers and industry analysts.

Refiners cut output by as much as 35 per cent in spring as coronavirus lockdowns destroyed the need for travel. As lockdowns eased, refiners increased output slowly through late August. But in top fuel consumer the United States and elsewhere, refiners have been decreasing rates for the last several weeks in response to increased inventories, a sustained lack of demand and in response to natural disasters.

The second largest fuel consumer led the world in oil demand recovery after taming its outbreak of coronavirus.

"The impacts of COVID-19...are putting extreme pressures on the refining business that we have not experienced before and are not sustainable over the longer term," Scott Wyatt, chief executive at Australian fuel supplier Viva Energy Group Ltd , said earlier this month.

Inventories of distillates, which include diesel, jet fuel and heating oil, which usually start building ahead of winter, are brimming this year, leading to a poor outlook for refinery margins for the coming months.

U.S. fuel demand has fallen 13 per cent year-on-year, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Autumn is typically when use of heating oil and diesel rises, but with more than 179 million barrels in storage, nearly a record, refiners have no incentive to keep units running.

The Paris-based International Energy Agency cut its forecast for global oil demand for 2020 for the second time in two months last week due to the faltering recovery. The energy watchdog forecast global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels will average 91.7 million barrels per day for all of 2020, a reduction in its previous forecast of 200,000 bpd and down 8.4 million bpd from 2019's 100.1 million bpd level.

U.S. refiners are still producing 20 per cent less fuel than before the pandemic. Indian, Japanese and South Korean refineries cut their utilization rates from July and August.

"Even with a U-shape economic recovery, demand potentially is going to be around 2 million bpd below where it was in the fourth quarter of 2019," David Fyfe, chief economist at Argus, said on a webinar earlier this month.

Asia's fuel output could fall further during seasonal maintenance between September and November, and several facilities worldwide are expected to close.

Average utilization rates at Chinese state-owned refineries were at around 78.6 per cent by end-August, down around 3.6 percentage points from July, data compiled by China-based Longzhong consultancy showed.

Australia's Viva said it may be forced to permanently shut its Geelong Refinery in Victoria to curtail losses unless coronavirus-led restrictions are eased and demand picks up. The Australian government has proposed spending billions of dollars to keep the country's four remaining refineries open.

Singapore's complex refining margins, a bellwether for Asia, were negative in the first half of September, after turning slightly positive in August following four straight months of losses.

In the United States, the refining margin is hovering around $9 a barrel, near its lowest levels in April. Refiners typically do not turn a profit on products unless the crack spread - the difference between crude and fuel - is higher than $10.

Several refiners in the Philadelphia and Chicago area have put off planned work this autumn to save cash, according to sources familiar with those plants. In total, fewer refineries than usual will shut for seasonal maintenance.

Japan, the world's third-largest crude importer, cut its refinery utilization rate to 65.9 per cent in the week through Sept. 12, down from nearly 72 per cent in mid-August.

South Korea's largest refiner SK Innovation Co Ltd is considering further lowering crude processing at its two refineries after reducing average utilization rates to 80 per cent in September-October from 85 per cent in July-August, according to a company spokeswoman.