API：今年預(yù)計將是一次“一勞永逸”的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退

據(jù)今日石油2020年9月18日報道，今年新冠肺炎疫情大流行帶來的巨大挑戰(zhàn)，對全球油氣行業(yè)造成了重大干擾，造成了成千上萬人下崗、大量停業(yè)停產(chǎn)，導(dǎo)致石油勘探生產(chǎn)未來不確定性加大。

雖然到目前為止圭亞那的海上油氣活動基本上沒有受到疫情的影響，但如果這種螺旋式下降無限期地繼續(xù)下去，全球石油工業(yè)前景無疑將最終對這個南美國家的油氣作業(yè)產(chǎn)生影響。

但是在隧道的盡頭還是有光明的。美國石油學(xué)會(API)日前發(fā)布的2020年第三季度石油工業(yè)展望報告顯示，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)、石油和天然氣市場在再平衡和正?；矫嫒〉昧孙@著進(jìn)展。API首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家迪安·福爾曼博士說，這對石油行業(yè)和消費者來說都是令人鼓舞的消息。

API說，2020年被普遍預(yù)計將是一次“一勞永逸“的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，新興市場首當(dāng)其沖。根據(jù)美國能源信息署（EIA）公布的統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)，從今年第三季度開始，全球石油需求將超過供應(yīng)，明年油價將維持在50美元/桶左右。

根據(jù)API展望報告，彭博共識預(yù)計全球經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇將從今年第三季度開始。報告稱：“與彭博共識一致，世界銀行預(yù)計全球經(jīng)濟(jì)將在2021年恢復(fù)增長，從歷史上看，石油消費一直與經(jīng)濟(jì)同步增長?！?/span>

根據(jù)EIA的統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)，在今年第三季度，經(jīng)合組織經(jīng)濟(jì)體的石油日需求量減少了470萬桶，而非經(jīng)合組織經(jīng)濟(jì)體則減少了240萬桶。

API在其今年第三季度石油工業(yè)展望報告中稱，“相比之下，今年第三季全球原油日產(chǎn)量比去年同期減少了970萬桶，主要受歐佩克成員國帶頭減產(chǎn)的影響?！?/span>

福爾曼博士說，圭亞那的石油經(jīng)濟(jì)很可能經(jīng)受住當(dāng)前的低價格環(huán)境，因為其預(yù)計的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長來自石油收入和石油質(zhì)量，石油行業(yè)認(rèn)為石油是一種利基產(chǎn)品，這將對圭亞那有利。

自2015年以來，?？松梨诠驹诠鐏喣墙＋@得了18個油氣發(fā)現(xiàn)，總儲量超過了80億桶油當(dāng)量。圭亞那去年12月開始石油生產(chǎn)。

李峻 編譯自 今日石油

原文如下：

2020 expected to be a ‘one and done’ recession as oil demand bounces back – API

The enormous challenges triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic this year have caused major disruptions to the global oil and gas industry resulting in thousands of lay-offs, multiple shut-ins and mounting uncertainties about the future of petroleum exploration and production.

Although offshore activities in Guyana have so far continued largely unaffected, the global industry outlook will no doubt ultimately have an impact on operations in the South American country if the downward spiral continued indefinitely.

But there is light at the end of the tunnel. The American Petroleum Institute’s (API) Industry Outlook for Q3 2020 released on Thursday shows the global economy, oil and natural gas markets, have made noteworthy progress toward rebalancing and normalizing. This, API Chief Economist, Dr. Dean Foreman says is encouraging news for the industry and consumers alike.

“2020 is broadly expected to be a ‘one-and-done’ economic recession, keyed by emerging markets. Beginning in Q3 2020, global oil demand appeared to exceed supply and could support prices of about $50 per barrel in 2021 per the U.S. Energy Information Administration,” Dr. Foreman said, in recounting some of the highlights of the API Industry Outlook report.

According to the API Outlook, Bloomberg consensus expects economic recovery to take hold beginning in Q3 2020. “Consistent with the Bloomberg consensus, World Bank expect global economic growth to resume in 2021, and oil consumption has historically grown in tandem with the economy,” the report said.

In Q3 2020, oil demand among OECD economies fell by 4.7 million barrels per day, compared with 2.4 mb/d among Non-OECD economies, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).

“By contrast, Q3 2020 global supply was down by 9.7 million barrels per day compared with one year ago with cuts led by OPEC nations,” API said in its Q3 2020 Industry Outlook.

Dr. Foreman has said Guyana’s oil economy is likely to withstand the current low-price environment since its projected economic growth from oil revenues and the quality of its oil, which the industry considers a niche product, will work in the country’s favour.

Since 2015, ExxonMobil has made 18 discoveries offshore Guyana amounting to well over 8 billion barrels of oil equivalent resources. Oil production began in the country last December.