國際油價將在窄幅區(qū)間波動

據(jù)9月17日Investing.com報道，本周，石油市場對石油需求的預(yù)測幾度悲觀，但油價無視這些報告，逆勢攀升。布倫特原油和西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油價格均在每桶40美元左右徘徊，而布倫特原油略有上漲。只有當(dāng)市場全面了解全球經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇，以及能夠準(zhǔn)確識別復(fù)蘇是已經(jīng)到來、正在接近還是正在停滯時，大的變化才可能來臨。

市場正等待著短期需求的重大變化，而長期的需求問題仍然不那么引人注目。

英國石油公司本周早些時候發(fā)布了《2020年能源展望》，并推測全球石油需求可能在2019年已達(dá)到頂峰，這成為了各大新聞頭條。這與英國石油2019年的預(yù)測大相徑庭，該公司曾預(yù)測，需求峰值將在2030年出現(xiàn)，這一預(yù)測相當(dāng)大膽。

對于英國石油公司的《2020年能源展望》中提出，石油需求將不再超過1億桶/天，值得注意的是，這些僅僅是預(yù)期，且報告中的一些推理是可疑的。例如，假定政府將繼續(xù)以近年來相同的速度促進(jìn)可再生能源技術(shù)的發(fā)展?？梢哉f，這份報告假設(shè)了即將到來的“能源轉(zhuǎn)型”的預(yù)期結(jié)果，然后再列舉了造成這一結(jié)果的原因。

如果各國政府投入刺激資金促進(jìn)能源轉(zhuǎn)型，這可能是真的，但由于今年已經(jīng)產(chǎn)生的成本，因此存在不確定性。

英國石油公司的這份報告旨在支持英國石油公司完全放棄化石燃料業(yè)務(wù)的戰(zhàn)略計劃——這是歐洲石油公司日益增長的趨勢。交易員不應(yīng)利用英國石油公司的預(yù)測來考慮未來的石油需求，因為這是不現(xiàn)實的。

報告甚至不應(yīng)該與國際能源署、美國能源信息署、歐佩克和?？松梨诠咎峁┑念A(yù)期一考慮,因為它主要對那些關(guān)注英國石油公司未來計劃和股價的投資者有用，這些計劃包括每年在“低碳技術(shù)”上投入50億美元，以及從化石燃料轉(zhuǎn)型，從天然氣過渡。

與此同時，IEA和歐佩克都再次下調(diào)了對2020年石油需求的預(yù)期。歐佩克下調(diào)預(yù)期的主要原因是，歐佩克下調(diào)展望的主要原因是，它認(rèn)為印度和其他亞洲國家的需求復(fù)蘇不再那么強勁。

IEA呼應(yīng)了歐佩克的觀點，即東亞和印度的需求將低于預(yù)期，但該機構(gòu)也認(rèn)為，全球航空旅行和航空燃油的嚴(yán)重疲軟將持續(xù)到2021年。該組織預(yù)計全球石油需求將僅達(dá)到9170萬桶/天，并預(yù)計在2020年剩余時間內(nèi)石油需求將下降。市場沒有被這兩次修正所嚇倒，這表明市場的對IEA或歐佩克的預(yù)期存疑。

歐佩克和IEA可能在亞洲的需求預(yù)期上存在偏差，中國9月份石油消費出現(xiàn)疲軟，但這可能只是暫時現(xiàn)象。正如上周本專欄所討論的那樣，隨著瓶頸問題的解決和額外存儲容量的建立，中國的需求似乎有可能在第四季度回升。

GasBuddy和IHS Markit的初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示，美國的汽油消費自一個半星期前的勞動節(jié)以來有所下降。汽油消費有可能在感恩節(jié)(接近11月底)和年底假期前后回升。

本周，油價擺脫了所有這些令人沮喪的預(yù)測。美國能源信息署(EIA)的一份報告顯示，上周美國石油庫存有所下降，有鑒于此，WTI價格周三上漲近5%，達(dá)到每桶40美元。布倫特原油價格也升至每桶略高于42美元。但在經(jīng)濟和需求出現(xiàn)實質(zhì)性變化之前，兩者都不會走出這個價格區(qū)間。

歐佩克今天舉行了一次部長級聯(lián)合監(jiān)督委員會(JMMC)會議，以評估減產(chǎn)配額的執(zhí)行情況，并可能就石油政策的改變提出建議。一些分析師預(yù)測，由于油價仍未上漲，JMMC將建議進(jìn)一步減產(chǎn)。

然而，在歐佩克中仍有很大影響力的沙特阿拉伯不希望進(jìn)一步削減其石油產(chǎn)量。盡管隨著氣溫下降，沙特阿拉伯的國內(nèi)石油和天然氣消費量將下降，但該國的主要關(guān)注點是為利潤豐厚的東部地區(qū)供應(yīng)石油。

由于沙特阿拉伯預(yù)期中國和其他亞洲國家的需求將會增加，因此不太愿意進(jìn)一步減產(chǎn)。

王佳晶 摘譯自 Investing.com

原文如下：

Why Oil Prices Could Remain In A Tight Range

The oil market saw several dour forecasts for oil demand this week, yet prices ignored these reports and pushed higher.

We continue to see oil in a relative holding pattern, with both Brent and WTI hovering around $40 per barrel—Brent slightly higher. Big changes will probably only come when we get a better sense of the global economic recovery and whether it has arrived, is approaching, or stalling.

The market is waiting to move on major changes in short term demand. Longer term demand issues remain less compelling, but let’s unpack what emerged this week and preview today’s OPEC+ JMMC meeting to explore their implications for the market.

BP (LON:BP) Demand About-Face

BP (NYSE:BP) released its Energy Outlook 2020 earlier this week and made major headlines by theorizing that global oil demand may have topped in 2019. This is a major departure from BP’s 2019 forecast, which saw peak demand occurring in 2030 (an already aggressive forecast).

The important thing to understand about the scenarios presented in BP’s Energy Outlook 2020—two of which see oil demand never again rising above 100 million bpd—is that they aren’t really forecasts. Rather, this report assumes the desired conclusion of an approaching “energy transition” and then explains how we get there.

Some of the reasoning in the report is suspect. For example, every scenario—even the “business-as-usual” version—assumes that governments will continue increasing their promotion of renewable energy technology at the same rate as they have over recent years.

This may be true if governments commit stimulus funds to energy transition promotion, but it may not happen because of the costs they have already incurred this year. Moreover, if President Trump wins reelection, he and other conservative politicians globally are less likely to spend on energy transition plans.

The BP report is designed to support BP’s strategic plans to shift away from the fossil fuel business entirely—a growing trend among European oil companies. Traders shouldn’t use BP’s projections to inform their considerations of future oil demand, because it isn’t realistic.

The report shouldn’t even be considered alongside the forecasts provided by the IEA, EIA, OPEC and ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) because it is primarily useful for investors looking at BP’s future plans and share price, which include spending $5 billion a year on “l(fā)ow-carbon technologies” and transitioning away from fossil fuels, even away from natural gas.

IEA And OPEC's Revised Outlooks

Meanwhile, both the IEA and OPEC revised their 2020 oil demand forecasts lower again. OPEC’s primary reason for cutting its outlook was that it no longer sees demand recovering quite as robustly in India and other Asian countries.

The IEA echoed OPEC’s sentiment that demand in East Asia and India will be weaker-than-expected, but it also sees serious weaknesses in global air travel and jet fuel continuing well into 2021. It expects that global oil demand will only reach 91.7 million bpd and sees oil demand decreasing during the rest of 2020. The market was not scared by these two revisions, indicating that sentiment was probably already more skeptical than either the IEA or OPEC.

Where OPEC and the IEA may be wrong is Asia. We are seeing weaknesses in China’s September oil consumption, but that is likely to prove transitory. As discussed in this column last week, China’s demand looks likely to pick up in the fourth quarter as bottlenecks are resolved and additional storage capacity is built.

We are also seeing preliminary data from GasBuddy and IHS Markit showing that gasoline consumption in the U.S. has decreased since Labor Day, a week and a half ago. It is possible that gasoline consumption could pick up around Thanksgiving (toward the end of November) and the end-of-year holidays, but it is unclear how many people will feel comfortable traveling to see family in 2020.

Oil prices shrugged off all of the depressing forecasts this week. WTI went up by nearly 5% and hit $40 per barrel on Wednesday based on a positive EIA report that showed that U.S. oil stocks decreased last week. Brent also rose to just above $42 per barrel. But neither is moving out of this price range until something real changes with the economy and demand.

Further OPEC+ Production Cuts?

OPEC+ is holding a virtual Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting today to assess compliance with quotas and possibly give recommendations for changes to oil policy. Some analysts are predicting that the JMMC will recommend further cuts because oil prices are still not rising.

However, Saudi Arabia, a nation that retains a lot of power in the group, does not want to curtail its production any further. While Saudi Arabia’s domestic oil and gas consumption will be dropping as the cooler temperatures arrive, its primary concern in the oil industry is supplying its lucrative East Asian contracts.

Since Saudia Arabia likely understands that China and other nations in Asia will see increased demand, it's unlikely to assent to further production slashes at this time.