盛寶銀行：年底前油價(jià)不太可能回升到50美元以上

據(jù)今日油價(jià)9月17日報(bào)道，據(jù)盛寶銀行(Saxo Bank)表示，由于2020年煉油利潤率和需求疲弱，石油庫存繼續(xù)增加，石油需求復(fù)蘇乏力，加上缺乏新冠肺炎疫苗，可能會推動油價(jià)到2021年回升至每桶50美元。

盛寶銀行大宗商品策略主管奧勒?漢森(Ole Hansen)表示：“原油自6月以來一直處于每桶40美元的低位，交易格局相當(dāng)穩(wěn)定，然而，我們從現(xiàn)貨市場的數(shù)據(jù)中看到了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)正在顯現(xiàn)的證據(jù)。煉油廠利潤疲軟，主要是由于多余的柴油和航空燃料過剩造成的，導(dǎo)致存儲設(shè)施正迅速被填滿?！?/span>

盡管油價(jià)在經(jīng)過上周15%的修正后，在周二找到支撐點(diǎn)，但盛寶銀行認(rèn)為，由于基本面仍然疲弱，短期內(nèi)油價(jià)沒有太多上行潛力。

漢森還表示：“由于疫情繼續(xù)減緩燃料需求的復(fù)蘇，我們認(rèn)為，油價(jià)在未來幾個月的增長潛力可能有限?？紤]到這一點(diǎn)，并考慮到有增產(chǎn)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，我們預(yù)計(jì)布倫特原油將會在40美元/桶的低位徘徊，最終在年底和2021年走高?！?/span>

花旗集團(tuán)(Citigroup)稱，到明年年底，油價(jià)將升至每桶60美元，因?yàn)閷脮r(shí)過剩的供應(yīng)將得到緩解。

高盛(Goldman Sachs)預(yù)計(jì)，布倫特原油價(jià)格將在2021年第三季度升至每桶65美元，不過年底可能會走低，為每桶58美元。高盛還預(yù)計(jì)，WTI原油在明年第三季度前將上漲至每桶55.88美元，高于稍早預(yù)估的每桶51.38美元。

王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價(jià)

原文如下：

Saxo Bank: Oil Unlikely To Return Above $50 By Year-End

The faltering oil demand recovery and the lack of a COVID-19 vaccine will likely push the oil price recovery to $50 a barrel into 2021, as inventories continue to pile up in 2020 amid weak refinery margins and demand, according to Saxo Bank.

“Crude oil has been trading in a fairly stable pattern in the low $40s since June, however, we are seeing evidence in data from the physical market that there are risks emerging. Weak refinery margins, caused primarily by the excess of unwanted diesel and jet fuel, are leading to storage facilities rapidly filling up,” Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said on an online briefing, as carried by Times of Oman.

Despite the fact that oil prices managed to find support on Tuesday after the 15-percent correction of the past week, Saxo Bank doesn’t see too much upside potential for oil prices in the near term as fundamentals remain weak.

The correction actually helped prices drop more in line with the fundamentals in the currently fragile outlook for the oil market, Hansen wrote in a post on Wednesday.

“As the pandemic continue to slow the recovery in fuel demand, the upside potential in our opinion is likely to remain limited over the coming months. With that in mind and given the risk of increased production, we see Brent crude oil settling into a new lower range around $40/b before eventually moving higher into year end and 2021,” he said.

In 2021, oil prices could hit $60 a barrel, according to Citigroup and Goldman Sachs.

Oil prices are set to rise to $60 a barrel by the end of next year as the oversupply will have been drawn down by then, according to Citigroup, which is bullish on oil.

Goldman Sachs expects Brent Crude to reach $65 a barrel in the third quarter of 2021, although it could end the year lower, at $58 a barrel. Goldman also sees WTI Crude to rally to $55.88 a barrel by the third quarter of next year, up from $51.38 a barrel in earlier forecasts.