ACCC：低油價(jià)和LNG價(jià)格增加中長(zhǎng)期供應(yīng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

據(jù)世界天然氣網(wǎng)站9月15日消息 在2020年初，COVID-19大流行期間，石油和天然氣價(jià)格暴跌至創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的低水平。

澳大利亞競(jìng)爭(zhēng)和消費(fèi)者委員會(huì)（ACCC）在其《2017-2025年天然氣市場(chǎng)調(diào)查報(bào)告》中指出，目前還不清楚這一流行病的全部影響。不過(guò)，預(yù)計(jì)今年及以后，天然氣供需都將受到?jīng)_擊。

石油和液化天然氣價(jià)格的下跌，雖然給國(guó)內(nèi)天然氣用戶(hù)帶來(lái)了一些短期緩解，但從中長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看，增加了天然氣市場(chǎng)面臨的供應(yīng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

監(jiān)督機(jī)構(gòu)指出，盡管這些事件造成了不確定性，但東海岸天然氣供應(yīng)目前預(yù)計(jì)將足以滿(mǎn)足2021年的國(guó)內(nèi)和出口需求。

然而，不確定性增加，因?yàn)轭A(yù)計(jì)2021年?yáng)|海岸將比2020年更依賴(lài)未開(kāi)發(fā)的2P儲(chǔ)量的產(chǎn)量。

這些儲(chǔ)量的開(kāi)發(fā)將需要大量投資，在低油價(jià)環(huán)境下，生產(chǎn)商可能不愿意進(jìn)行這些投資。預(yù)計(jì)2021年南部各州約21%的產(chǎn)量將來(lái)自未開(kāi)發(fā)的2P儲(chǔ)量。

昆士蘭州的液化天然氣生產(chǎn)商預(yù)計(jì)，2021年天然氣供應(yīng)量將超過(guò)其國(guó)內(nèi)和出口承諾的84 PJ，這些天然氣可以出口，也可以用于供應(yīng)國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)。液化天然氣生產(chǎn)商目前預(yù)計(jì)將成為國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)的凈貢獻(xiàn)者。

在石油和液化天然氣現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格大幅下跌后，一些生產(chǎn)商已宣布大幅削減資本支出，并推遲了一些項(xiàng)目。雖然這些變化的影響在大多數(shù)情況下預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)影響中期供應(yīng)，但少數(shù)生產(chǎn)商已告知我們，這也可能影響2021年的產(chǎn)量。

吳恒磊 編譯自 世界天然氣

原文如下：

ACCC: low oil and LNG prices hike medium, long-term supply risk

The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020 saw the collapse of oil and gas prices to record low levels.

In its Gas Market Inquiry 2017-2025 report, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission’s (ACCC) noted that the full effect of the pandemic is still unclear. However, it is expected to hit both supply and demand for gas this year and beyond.

The fall in oil and LNG prices, while bringing some short-term relief to domestic gas users, has increased the supply risks facing the gas market over the medium to long term.

The watchdog noted that despite the uncertainty created by these events, east coast gas supply is currently expected to be sufficient to meet forecast domestic and export demand in 2021.

However, uncertainty is heightened because the east coast is expected to be more reliant on production from undeveloped 2P reserves in 2021 than it was for 2020.

The development of these reserves will require significant investments which producers may be less able or willing to undertake in a low oil price environment. Around 21 per cent of production in 2021 in southern states is expected to come from undeveloped 2P reserves.

LNG producers in Queensland expect to have 84 PJ of gas available in excess of their domestic and export commitments in 2021, which could either be exported or used to supply the domestic market. The LNG producers currently expect to be net contributors to the domestic market.

Following the sharp fall in oil and LNG spot prices, a number of producers have announced significant reductions in capital expenditure and delays to some projects. While the effects of these changes are in most cases expected to affect supply over the medium-term, a small number of producers have informed us that it may also affect production in 2021.