ACCC：低油價和LNG價格增加中長期供應(yīng)風險

據(jù)世界天然氣網(wǎng)站9月15日消息 在2020年初，COVID-19大流行期間，石油和天然氣價格暴跌至創(chuàng)紀錄的低水平。

澳大利亞競爭和消費者委員會（ACCC）在其《2017-2025年天然氣市場調(diào)查報告》中指出，目前還不清楚這一流行病的全部影響。不過，預(yù)計今年及以后，天然氣供需都將受到?jīng)_擊。

石油和液化天然氣價格的下跌，雖然給國內(nèi)天然氣用戶帶來了一些短期緩解，但從中長期來看，增加了天然氣市場面臨的供應(yīng)風險。

監(jiān)督機構(gòu)指出，盡管這些事件造成了不確定性，但東海岸天然氣供應(yīng)目前預(yù)計將足以滿足2021年的國內(nèi)和出口需求。

然而，不確定性增加，因為預(yù)計2021年東海岸將比2020年更依賴未開發(fā)的2P儲量的產(chǎn)量。

這些儲量的開發(fā)將需要大量投資，在低油價環(huán)境下，生產(chǎn)商可能不愿意進行這些投資。預(yù)計2021年南部各州約21%的產(chǎn)量將來自未開發(fā)的2P儲量。

昆士蘭州的液化天然氣生產(chǎn)商預(yù)計，2021年天然氣供應(yīng)量將超過其國內(nèi)和出口承諾的84 PJ，這些天然氣可以出口，也可以用于供應(yīng)國內(nèi)市場。液化天然氣生產(chǎn)商目前預(yù)計將成為國內(nèi)市場的凈貢獻者。

在石油和液化天然氣現(xiàn)貨價格大幅下跌后，一些生產(chǎn)商已宣布大幅削減資本支出，并推遲了一些項目。雖然這些變化的影響在大多數(shù)情況下預(yù)計會影響中期供應(yīng)，但少數(shù)生產(chǎn)商已告知我們，這也可能影響2021年的產(chǎn)量。

吳恒磊 編譯自 世界天然氣

原文如下：

ACCC: low oil and LNG prices hike medium, long-term supply risk

The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020 saw the collapse of oil and gas prices to record low levels.

In its Gas Market Inquiry 2017-2025 report, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission’s (ACCC) noted that the full effect of the pandemic is still unclear. However, it is expected to hit both supply and demand for gas this year and beyond.

The fall in oil and LNG prices, while bringing some short-term relief to domestic gas users, has increased the supply risks facing the gas market over the medium to long term.

The watchdog noted that despite the uncertainty created by these events, east coast gas supply is currently expected to be sufficient to meet forecast domestic and export demand in 2021.

However, uncertainty is heightened because the east coast is expected to be more reliant on production from undeveloped 2P reserves in 2021 than it was for 2020.

The development of these reserves will require significant investments which producers may be less able or willing to undertake in a low oil price environment. Around 21 per cent of production in 2021 in southern states is expected to come from undeveloped 2P reserves.

LNG producers in Queensland expect to have 84 PJ of gas available in excess of their domestic and export commitments in 2021, which could either be exported or used to supply the domestic market. The LNG producers currently expect to be net contributors to the domestic market.

Following the sharp fall in oil and LNG spot prices, a number of producers have announced significant reductions in capital expenditure and delays to some projects. While the effects of these changes are in most cases expected to affect supply over the medium-term, a small number of producers have informed us that it may also affect production in 2021.