疫情加速脫碳 但幾十年內(nèi)油氣仍扮演重要角色

據(jù)ICIS網(wǎng)站9月14日消息 英國(guó)能源巨頭BP周一表示，疫情過(guò)后，世界將致力于迅速擺脫化石燃料，旨在通過(guò)脫碳來(lái)減輕氣候變化的影響，盡管油氣將繼續(xù)在材料生產(chǎn)中發(fā)揮作用。

在其年度能源展望中，這家能源巨頭表示，碳定價(jià)將在減排方面發(fā)揮關(guān)鍵作用。碳定價(jià)是污染者為其產(chǎn)生的二氧化碳排放買單。

然而，由于目前還沒(méi)有替代材料，通過(guò)石油化工產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)材料將繼續(xù)主要使用化石燃料。

BP表示：“燃料的非燃燒使用（主要用作石油化工產(chǎn)品、瀝青和化肥的原料）是增加對(duì)化石燃料需求的重要來(lái)源，盡管隨著環(huán)境壓力的增加，這一比例低于過(guò)去20年。”

能源展望中預(yù)測(cè)，到2050年，有三種可能的情景。在快速發(fā)展情景下，政策措施將導(dǎo)致碳價(jià)格大幅上漲，促使能源行業(yè)在本世紀(jì)中葉前減排70%。

這種情況是唯一符合《氣候變化巴黎協(xié)議》承諾的情景，該承諾旨在到2100年將全球氣溫上升幅度與工業(yè)化前水平相比限制在2攝氏度以下。

零排放情景將是實(shí)現(xiàn)該協(xié)議的最雄心勃勃的情景，在該協(xié)議中，政策“通過(guò)社會(huì)和消費(fèi)者行為及偏好的重大轉(zhuǎn)變而得到加強(qiáng)”，循環(huán)經(jīng)濟(jì)的概念得到廣泛實(shí)施。在這種情況下，到2050年，排放量將下降95%。

照常經(jīng)營(yíng)（BAU）認(rèn)為，政策行動(dòng)有限，能源生產(chǎn)將像過(guò)去幾十年一樣發(fā)展。然而，隨著可再生能源的發(fā)展，在這種情況下，排放量可能在2020年中期達(dá)到峰值，盡管與2018年相比，2050年的排放量只會(huì)下降10%。

BP表示：“液體燃料的非燃燒使用，主要作為石化行業(yè)的原料，在一定程度上支撐了整體液體需求，在快速發(fā)展和照常經(jīng)營(yíng)兩種情況下都有所增加，僅在展望的最后10年凈零排放時(shí)才降至2018年水平以下?！?/span>

BP補(bǔ)充稱，快速發(fā)展方案所需的“市場(chǎng)合理化”程度將比其他兩種方案更為明顯，預(yù)計(jì)在這種情況下，約5000萬(wàn)桶/日的原油（當(dāng)前或計(jì)劃產(chǎn)能）將超過(guò)需求。

“在快速發(fā)展情況下，對(duì)這些壓力最具彈性的煉油能力得益于：彈性的國(guó)內(nèi)需求、優(yōu)勢(shì)原料的獲取、高水平的升級(jí)、與石化產(chǎn)品的整合，以及在某些地區(qū)政府的支持?！?/span>

如何定價(jià)碳排放將是任何減排的關(guān)鍵。BP假設(shè)在快速和凈零排放的情況下，價(jià)格會(huì)迅速上漲。到2050年，發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的二氧化碳價(jià)格將達(dá)到250美元/噸，新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體將達(dá)到175美元/噸。

在常規(guī)經(jīng)營(yíng)情況下，發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的碳價(jià)格將達(dá)到65美元/噸，新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體將達(dá)到35美元/噸。

王磊 摘譯自 ICIS

原文如下：

Pandemic hastens crude's demise but hydrocarbons to play a role for decades – BP

The world will aim to move away from fossil fuels at speed post the pandemic, aiming to lessen the impact of climate change via decarbonisation, although hydrocarbons will continue to play a role in materials production, UK energy major BP said on Monday.

In its annual Energy Outlook, the crude oil major said carbon pricing, where polluters pay for the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions they generate, will play a key role in reducing emissions.

However, the production of materials through petrochemicals will continue to be made mostly with fossil fuels as alternative materials are not yet available.

“The non-combusted use of fuels – predominantly as feedstocks for petrochemicals, bitumen and fertilizers – is an important source of incremental demand for fossil fuels, although less than in the past 20 years as environmental pressures increase,” said BP.

The Energy Outlook forecasts three potential scenarios to 2050; in the Rapid scenario, policy measures will lead to a significant increase in carbon prices, prompting the energy sector to reduce emissions by 70% by the mid-point of this century.

This scenario is the only one that meets the Paris Accord pledge on climate change, which aims to limit the rise in global temperatures by less than 2 degrees Celsius by 2100, compared with pre-industrial levels.

The Net Zero scenario would be the most ambitious to meet the Accord, in which policies are “reinforced by significant shifts in societal and consumer behaviour and preferences”, with the circular economy concept widely put in place; emissions would fall by 95% by 2050 in this scenario.

Business-as-usual (BAU) contemplates that policy action is limited, and energy production would evolve as in past decades; however, as renewable energy gains traction, emissions could peak in the mid-2020s under this scenario, although they would have fallen only by 10% in 2050, compared with 2018 levels.

“The non-combusted use of liquid fuels, largely as a feedstock in the petrochemicals sector, provides some degree of support to overall liquids demand, increasing in both Rapid and BAU [scenarios], and declining below 2018 levels only in the final 10 years of the Outlook in Net Zero,” said BP.

BP added that the degree of “market rationalisation” required in the Rapid scenario would be more pronounced than in the other two scenarios, forecasting that in this stance around 50m bbl/day of crude oil – current or planned capacity – would surpass demand.

“The refining capacity that is most resilient to these pressures in Rapid is aided by: resilient domestic demand, access to advantaged feedstock, high levels of upgrading, integration with petrochemicals and, in some regions, government support.”

How carbon is priced will be key to any reduction in emissions; BP assumes rapidly rising prices in the Rapid and Net Zero scenarios, reaching $250/tonne of CO2 in the developed world by 2050, and $175/tonne in emerging economies.

In the BAU scenario, carbon prices would reach $65/tonne in developed economies and $35/tonne in emerging economies.