到2050年印度化石燃料使用量將首次下降

據(jù)能源世界網(wǎng)9月15日新德里報(bào)道，《BP能源展望2020》周一表示，印度對(duì)化石燃料的需求將大增，盡管在全球范圍內(nèi)，隨著氣候舉措推動(dòng)可再生能源，而新冠疫情在需求上留下了持久的傷疤，到2050年，印度的化石燃料消費(fèi)將在現(xiàn)代史上首次下降。

該展望認(rèn)為，2018年至2050年，印度的一次能源消費(fèi)將增長2.5%，而全球的增幅為0.3%。該展望預(yù)計(jì)，按照“一切照舊”的假設(shè)，到2050年印度的石油消費(fèi)量將增加一倍以上，達(dá)到1,000萬桶。但在“快速”假設(shè)下，天然氣需求預(yù)計(jì)將從580億立方米驟降至3570億立方米?！暗?050年，印度的油氣進(jìn)口總量將增加一倍以上，這在一定程度上是由煤改氣帶動(dòng)的。煤改氣導(dǎo)致印度對(duì)進(jìn)口液化天然氣的依賴顯著加深。

全球范圍內(nèi)，化石燃料需求可能不會(huì)升至疫情之前的水平。

盡管報(bào)告認(rèn)為，中國的能源需求增長相對(duì)于過去的趨勢急劇放緩（在2030年代初達(dá)到頂峰），但在所有情況中，包括“凈零”，其仍將是最大的能源市場，占2050年世界能源需求的20%以上。這幾乎是印度的兩倍。

但在全球范圍內(nèi)，化石燃料需求可能永遠(yuǎn)無法恢復(fù)到疫情前的水平，因?yàn)樵撘咔榧铀倭四茉礃I(yè)務(wù)的“根本性重組。 在這三種情況下，化石燃料的份額將從2018年占一次能源總需求的85%下降到2050年的20%-65%。

該報(bào)告稱，印度4月份的燃料銷售減少了一半多，因?yàn)槿珖秶姆怄i將人們限制在家中，并停止了幾乎所有的經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)。在政府于6月開始解除限制之后，需求飆升至接近鎖定前水平的80%，但在8月卻出現(xiàn)疲軟，較上年同期下降15.6%。未來30年，石油需求將下降。 下降的規(guī)模和速度是由公路運(yùn)輸?shù)男侍岣吆碗姎饣苿?dòng)的。并補(bǔ)充道，天然氣的前景比石油更具彈性，其基礎(chǔ)是天然氣在支持快速增長的發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟(jì)體脫碳和減少對(duì)煤炭的依賴方面所起的作用。

郝芬 譯自 能源世界網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Fossil fuel usage set to drop for 1st time

India’s thirst for fossil fuels willincrease by a big margin, even though globally, consumption will shrink for the first time in modern history through 2050 as climate initiatives propel renewable energy while the coronavirus pandemic leaves a lasting scar on demand, the benchmark BP Energy Outlook 2020 said on Monday.

The outlook saw India’s primary energy consumption growing by 2.5 per cent between 2018 and 2050 and 0.3 per cent globally. It sees India’s oil consumption more than doubling to 10 million barrels by 2050 under the ‘business-as-usual’ scenario. But gas demand is seen jumping from 58 bcm (billion cubic meters) to 357 bcm under the ‘rapid’ scenario. “India’s combined oil and gas imports more than double by 2050, driven in part by increased coal-to-gas switching which leads to a marked deepening in India’s dependence on imported LNG,” the outlook said.

Globally, fossil fuel demand may not rise to pre-Covid levels

Though the report sees growth in China’s energy demand slowing sharply relative to past trends — peaking in the early 2030s — it will still remain the largest market for energy in all scenarios, including ‘net zero’, to account for over 20 per cent of the world’s energy demand in 2050. This will be almost twice that of India.

But globally, fossil fuel demand may never recover to pre-coronavirus levels as the pandemic hastens “fundamental restructuring” of the energy business. The share of fossil fuels is set to decline from 85 per cent of total primary energy demand in 2018 to between 20 per cent and 65 per cent by 2050 in the three scenarios, it said.

India’s fuel sales more than halved in April as the countrywide lockdown confined people to their homes and shut almost all economic activities. Demand shot up to nearly 80 per cent of the pre-lockdown level after the government began lifting curbs in June but faltered in August, down 15.6 per cent from the year-ago period. “Demand for oil falls over the next 30 years. The scale and pace of this decline is driven by the increasing efficiency and electrification of road transportation,” the report said, adding the outlook for natural gas was more resilient than for oil, underpinned by its role in supporting fast-growing developing economies as they de-carbonised and reduced their reliance on coal.