歐佩克下調(diào)2020年石油需求預(yù)測

據(jù)CNBC網(wǎng)站9月14日消息：歐佩克降低了對今年石油需求增長的預(yù)測，理由是印度和其他亞洲國家的復(fù)蘇低于預(yù)期，并警告稱明年下半年風(fēng)險(xiǎn)仍較高且傾向于下行。

在周一發(fā)布的月度報(bào)告中，產(chǎn)油國集團(tuán)下調(diào)了對2020年全球石油需求的預(yù)期，將其平均日需求調(diào)整為9,020萬桶。較上月預(yù)估減少40萬桶，較上年同期減少950萬桶。

報(bào)告發(fā)布之際，能源市場參與者對經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇乏力和疫情后燃料需求受挫越來越感到擔(dān)憂。

中東占主導(dǎo)地位的歐佩克組織由一些世界上最大的石油生產(chǎn)國組成，該組織周一表示，由于第二季度所有次區(qū)域的石油需求下降低于預(yù)期，該組織已將經(jīng)合組織國家的石油日需求上調(diào)約10萬桶。

然而，由于亞洲，特別是印度的石油需求表現(xiàn)疲軟，非經(jīng)合組織地區(qū)的石油需求被下調(diào)了50萬桶/天。

展望未來，歐佩克表示，對亞洲石油需求的負(fù)面影響預(yù)計(jì)將持續(xù)到2021年上半年。

此外，包括印度在內(nèi)的其他亞洲國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇速度和石油需求增長潛力仍不確定。因此，歐佩克目前預(yù)計(jì)明年全球石油需求將增長660萬桶/天，至平均9,690萬桶/天。最新的預(yù)測比此前預(yù)測低了40萬桶。

國際基準(zhǔn)布倫特原油周一報(bào)39.76美元/桶，下跌約0.2%；美國西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油(WTI)報(bào)37.26美元/桶，下跌約0.1%。

自今年年初以來，油價(jià)已下跌約40％。

馮娟 摘譯自 CNBC

原文如下：

OPEC cuts 2020 oil demand forecast, trims 2021 outlook on pandemic fallout

OPEC has cut its forecast for oil demand growth this year, citing a weaker-than-expected recovery in India and other Asian countries, and warned risks remain “elevated and skewed to the downside” for the first half of next year.

In a closely-watched monthly report published Monday, the group of oil-producing nations downwardly revised its outlook for global oil demand to an average of 90.2 million barrels per day in 2020. That’s down 400,000 bpd from the previous month’s estimate and reflects a contraction of 9.5 million bpd year-on-year.

The report comes as energy market participants become increasingly concerned about a faltering economic recovery and stumbling fuel demand in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.

The Middle East-dominated group, which consists of some of the world’s largest oil producers, said on Monday it had revised oil demand in OECD countries up by around 100,000 bpd due to less-than-expected declines in all sub-regions during the second quarter.

However, oil demand was revised down by 500,000 bpd in the non-OECD region due to weaker oil demand performance in Asia, particularly in India.

Looking ahead, OPEC said the negative impact on oil demand in Asia was expected to persist through the first six months of 2021.

“Additionally, risks remain elevated and skewed to the downside, particularly in relation to the development of Covid-19 infection cases and potential vaccines,” the group said in the report.

“Furthermore, the speed of recovery in economic activities and oil demand growth potential in Other Asian countries, including India, remain uncertain,” it added.

As such, OPEC now expects global oil demand to grow by 6.6 million bpd to an average of 96.9 million bpd next year. This updated forecast was also 400,000 bpd lower than its previous estimate.

International benchmark Brent crude traded at $39.76 a barrel on Monday, down around 0.2%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $37.26, roughly 0.1% lower.

Oil prices have dropped around 40% since the start of the year.