墨國(guó)油下調(diào)2021年石油產(chǎn)量目標(biāo)

據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)9月9日?qǐng)?bào)道，墨西哥將能源巨頭墨西哥國(guó)家石油公司(Pemex)明年的石油產(chǎn)量目標(biāo)下調(diào)逾8%，對(duì)于那些了解該公司沉重債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)的人來(lái)說(shuō)，這一舉動(dòng)并不令人意外。盡管國(guó)家慷慨援助，但債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)嚴(yán)重限制了該公司提高產(chǎn)量的能力。

據(jù)彭博社報(bào)道，墨西哥財(cái)政部表示，預(yù)計(jì)墨西哥石油公司2021年日產(chǎn)量為185.7萬(wàn)桶，低于今年4月預(yù)計(jì)的202.7萬(wàn)桶。巴克萊(Barclays)拉丁美洲首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家馬可?奧維耶多(Marco Oviedo)向彭博社(Bloomberg)表示，墨西哥國(guó)家石油公司不太可能達(dá)到較低的目標(biāo)。

根據(jù)政府計(jì)劃，墨國(guó)油本應(yīng)在2021年將石油產(chǎn)量提高約50萬(wàn)桶。然而，由于墨國(guó)油最大的海上油田Maloob的產(chǎn)量大幅下降，7月份產(chǎn)量降至154萬(wàn)桶/天。今年，Maloob的產(chǎn)量下降了30%以上。 這意味著Pemex7月份的總銷量跌至歷史新低。 這導(dǎo)致人們猜測(cè)該國(guó)可能不得不修改2021年的生產(chǎn)目標(biāo)。 如今，修改是一個(gè)事實(shí)。

然而，墨國(guó)油不僅無(wú)法實(shí)現(xiàn)其2021年的生產(chǎn)目標(biāo)。它也很有可能達(dá)不到今年的水平。預(yù)計(jì)該公司日平均產(chǎn)量為183萬(wàn)桶，但由于Maloob油田產(chǎn)量下降，且沒(méi)有與境況較好的石油公司簽訂新的生產(chǎn)合同，因此不太可能實(shí)現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo)。更不可能的是，今年1月-7月，墨西哥國(guó)家石油公司的日均產(chǎn)量?jī)H為169.2萬(wàn)桶，而新冠疫情又使問(wèn)題變得更加復(fù)雜。

郝芬 譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Mexico’s Pemex Slashes Oil Production Target For 2021

Mexico has revised down energy giant Pemex’s oil production target for next year by more than 8 percent in what was a no-surprise move to those familiar with the company’s heavy debt burden, which significantly limits its ability to boost production despite generous state help.

The Mexican Ministry of Finance said it now expected Pemex to produce 1.857 million bpd in 2021, according to a Bloomberg report, down from a projection of 2.027 million bpd made in April this year. Yet, according to at least one analyst, even the revised 2021 average looks too optimistic. Barclays’ chief economist for Latin America, Marco Oviedo, told Bloomberg that Pemex was unlikely to hit that lower target. “

According to government plans, Pemex was supposed to boost oil production by about half a million barrels in 2021. Instead, in July, production fell to 1.54 million bpd because of a sharp drop in the output from Pemex’s largest offshore field, Maloob. Output from Maloob fell by more than 30 percent on the year. This meant Pemex’s total for July fell to a record low. That led to speculation that the country might have to revise down its production target for 2021. Now, the revision is a fact.

Yet Pemex is not only set for failure in meeting its 2021 production target. It is also very likely it will fall short of this year’s one, too. The company was expected to produce a daily average of 1.83 million barrels of oil, but with the Maloob field output falling and no new production contracts with better-off oil companies on the table, this is unlikely. What makes it even more unlikely is the fact that for the January to July period, Pemex’s average daily has been just 1.692 million bpd, with the coronavirus pandemic complicating matters further.