EIA將明年全球石油日需求增長削減50萬桶

據(jù)石油新聞2020年9月9日華盛頓報道，由于中國的石油消費增長預(yù)期降低，美國能源信息署（EIA）9日把其對明年全球石油日需求增長的預(yù)期比8月份的預(yù)測下調(diào)了50萬桶，至650萬桶。

EIA 9日在其最新一期的短期能源展望報告中說，EIA目前預(yù)計明年中國的石油需求將日增100萬桶，低于其8月份預(yù)測的150萬桶。

EIA稱，8月份全球石油日需求增加了100萬桶，為5月需求從新冠肺炎疫情封鎖后開始復(fù)蘇以來的最低月度增幅。8月份還標(biāo)志著全球石油供應(yīng)增長在復(fù)蘇期間首次超過石油需求增長。

報告稱：“盡管8月份全球石油生產(chǎn)和消費的增長速度不同，但EIA預(yù)測，由于需求持續(xù)復(fù)蘇、歐佩克+減產(chǎn)和美國與價格相關(guān)產(chǎn)量下降，石油市場平衡在2020年剩余時間內(nèi)將繼續(xù)收緊。”

EIA稱，美國今年將平均日產(chǎn)1138萬桶石油，比其上個月預(yù)期石油日產(chǎn)量提高了12萬桶。EIA預(yù)計，明年美國石油日產(chǎn)量將下滑至1108萬桶。

EIA估計，盡管墨西哥灣海上運營商在颶風(fēng)勞拉期間關(guān)閉了生產(chǎn)，但由于運營商在春季油價暴跌后恢復(fù)了油井生產(chǎn)，美國9月份石油日產(chǎn)量環(huán)比增加了40萬桶，達(dá)到了1120萬桶。

EIA預(yù)計，9月以后美國石油產(chǎn)量將小幅下降，2021年上半年的平均日產(chǎn)量將略低于1100萬桶。EIA預(yù)計，新的鉆井活動無法彌補現(xiàn)有井產(chǎn)量的下降。

李峻 編譯自 石油新聞

原文如下：

US EIA cuts 2021 global oil demand growth by 500,000 b/d on China outlook

The US Energy Information Administration has cut its outlook for 2021 global oil demand growth by 500,000 b/d from last month's forecast to 6.5 million b/d on lower expected consumption growth in China.

EIA now sees China demand growing 1 million b/d next year, down from 1.5 million b/d in last month's forecast, it said Sept. 9 in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook.

Global oil demand grew by 1 million b/d in August, the slowest month-on-month increase since demand started recovering from coronavirus lockdowns in May, EIA said. August also marked the first time during the recovery period that global supply growth surpassed demand growth.

"Despite the different pace of increase between global oil production and consumption during August, EIA forecasts oil market balances to continue tightening for the remainder of 2020 as a result of continued demand recovery, restrained production from [OPEC+] and price-related declines in production from the United States," the report said.

US oil production is set to average 11.38 million b/d in 2020, EIA said, raising its outlook by 120,000 b/d from last month. It sees US oil output slipping to 11.08 million b/d in 2021.

EIA estimates US oil production jumped 400,000 b/d month on month to 11.2 million b/d in September, as a result of operators bringing wells back online after the spring's price crash and despite offshore Gulf of Mexico operators shutting in production during Hurricane Laura.

EIA sees US oil output declining slightly after September, averaging just under 11 million b/d in the first half of 2021. It predicts new drilling activity will not offset declines from existing wells.