全球石油需求將需要3年才能恢復(fù)到疫情前水平

據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2020年9月8日紐約報(bào)道，美國(guó)證券銀行公布的最新統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，由于航空燃油消費(fèi)仍將遠(yuǎn)低于去年的水平，全球石油需求將需要3年時(shí)間才能恢復(fù)到疫情大流行前的水平。

BofAS在TradeArabia發(fā)布的每周能源報(bào)告中說(shuō)，雖然公路燃料需求已恢復(fù)到接近疫情爆發(fā)前的水平，但航空燃料需求仍難以大幅增長(zhǎng)，因?yàn)榕c疫情爆發(fā)前的“正?！彼较啾龋娇章眯腥燥@著下降。

來(lái)自全球航班跟蹤服務(wù)公司Flightradar24上周公布的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，8月份全球商業(yè)航班的增長(zhǎng)比2019年8月的水平低了45.2%，而且增速比6、7月份要慢得多。

BofAS的分析師表示，在有效疫苗或治療方法推出之前，航空旅行不會(huì)出現(xiàn)反彈。然而，根據(jù)世界銀行的說(shuō)法，一種有效的疫苗仍然需要12到18個(gè)月的時(shí)間才能推出。

BofAS說(shuō)，如果疫苗在2021年底推出，到2022年航空旅行將恢復(fù)到危機(jī)前水平的75%，到2023年將恢復(fù)到典型消費(fèi)水平的90%。

就較長(zhǎng)期而言，這家美國(guó)銀行預(yù)計(jì)全球石油需求將在2030年達(dá)到大約1.05億桶/天的峰值，原因是電動(dòng)汽車在輕型汽車銷售中所占份額不斷上升。BofAS的基本設(shè)想是，到2030年前，電動(dòng)汽車將占輕型汽車銷量的34%，到2050年前占95%。

根據(jù)BofAS的說(shuō)法，氫燃料電池汽車也可能取代部分運(yùn)輸?shù)氖托枨?，特別是如果綠色氫價(jià)格大幅下跌的話。

國(guó)際能源署(IEA)能源市場(chǎng)和安全主管Keisuke Sadamori本周早些時(shí)候說(shuō)，在短期內(nèi)，由于煉油利潤(rùn)率疲軟、航空燃料需求缺乏復(fù)蘇以及全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的不確定性，全球石油需求復(fù)蘇似乎已停滯不前。

需求復(fù)蘇步履蹣跚的一個(gè)跡象是，世界最大石油出口國(guó)沙特阿拉伯下調(diào)了10月份出口亞洲和美國(guó)原油的官方售價(jià)。

荷蘭國(guó)際集團(tuán)(ING)策略師沃倫?帕特森和姚文宇周二表示：“很明顯，這表明市場(chǎng)收緊的速度沒(méi)有許多人預(yù)期的那么快，供應(yīng)在小幅走高，需求顯然在放緩?！?/span>

李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下:

Global Oil Demand To Return To Pre-Crisis Levels In Three Years

It will take three years for global oil demand to rebound to pre-pandemic levels, as jet fuel consumption continues to trend much lower than last year’s levels, according to Bank of America Securities.

While road fuel demand has recovered to nearly pre-COVID-19 levels, aviation fuel demand is struggling to take off materially as air travel is still significantly down compared to ‘normal’ levels from before the pandemic, BofAS said in a weekly energy reported carried by TradeArabia.

Air travel will not rebound until an effective vaccine or cure for COVID-19 is rolled out, the BofAS analysts said. An effective vaccine, however, is still 12 to 18 months down the line, according to the bank.

Data from global flight tracking service Flightradar24 showed last week that in August, commercial flights made it up to 45.2 percent below August 2019 levels, but grew at a much slower pace than June and July.

If a vaccine is rolled out at the end of 2021, air travel would recover to 75 percent of pre-crisis levels in 2022 and to 90 percent of the typical consumption level in 2023, BofAS says.

For the longer term, the bank sees global oil demand peaking at some 105 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2030, due to the rising share of electric vehicles (EVs) in light duty vehicle sales. BofAS’ base-case scenario is EVs taking a 34-percent share of light vehicle sales by 2030 and 95 percent of sales by 2050.

Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles could also displace part of oil demand for transportation, especially if green hydrogen prices fall materially, according to BofAS.

In the near term, oil demand recovery appears to have stalled, due to weak refining margins, a lack of recovery in jet fuel demand, and uncertainties over global economic growth, the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Director for Energy Markets and Security, Keisuke Sadamori, said earlier this week.

In a sign that demand recovery is faltering, the world’s top oil exporter Saudi Arabia cut its official selling prices for crude oil for October.

“Clearly this suggests that the market is not tightening as quickly as many had anticipated, with supply edging higher, and with demand clearly faltering,” ING strategists Warren Patterson and Wenyu Yao said on Tuesday.