哥倫比亞石油工業(yè)正顯示出復(fù)蘇跡象

據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)9月7日?qǐng)?bào)道，盡管由于油價(jià)長(zhǎng)期低迷，今年8月全球鉆機(jī)數(shù)量仍遠(yuǎn)低于去年同期，但哥倫比亞至關(guān)重要的石油工業(yè)似乎正在復(fù)蘇。據(jù)貝克休斯（Baker Hughes）上周五報(bào)道稱，在這個(gè)飽受折磨的拉丁美洲國(guó)家中，有7臺(tái)在用石油鉆機(jī)，而沒(méi)有在用天然氣鉆機(jī)。 這是連續(xù)第三個(gè)月鉆機(jī)數(shù)量增加，盡管仍不到2019年同期的三分之一。

直到今年5月底，隨著強(qiáng)制封鎖的放松，在哥倫比亞運(yùn)營(yíng)的能源公司開(kāi)始重啟非必要的業(yè)務(wù)，關(guān)鍵經(jīng)濟(jì)部門(mén)重新開(kāi)放。這對(duì)哥倫比亞很重要，因?yàn)檫@個(gè)安第斯山脈國(guó)家依賴石油生產(chǎn)作為一個(gè)關(guān)鍵的經(jīng)濟(jì)驅(qū)動(dòng)力。根據(jù)中央政府統(tǒng)計(jì)機(jī)構(gòu)DANE的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，今年7月，石油占出口總值的25%，約合6300億美元。這意味著石油和衍生產(chǎn)品價(jià)值急劇下降了51%，這可以歸咎于石油產(chǎn)量大幅下降和價(jià)格大幅下跌。

今年7月份，哥倫比亞石油日均產(chǎn)量為73.5萬(wàn)桶，雖然比一個(gè)月前高出近1%，但明顯低于2019年同期的86.9萬(wàn)桶。

今年3月，油價(jià)暴跌及新冠疫情爆發(fā)，哥倫比亞石油工業(yè)的前景一度黯淡。由于油價(jià)下跌，石油公司關(guān)閉了不具經(jīng)濟(jì)效益的生產(chǎn)，并暫停了非必要的業(yè)務(wù)，哥倫比亞至關(guān)重要的石油行業(yè)的資本支出和投資大幅下降。這場(chǎng)危機(jī)是在樂(lè)觀的2020年開(kāi)局之后出現(xiàn)的。今年1月，哥倫比亞的最大工業(yè)機(jī)構(gòu)哥倫比亞石油協(xié)會(huì) (ACP)預(yù)測(cè)，年投資將同比增長(zhǎng)23%，達(dá)到近50億美元。隨著油價(jià)暴跌的加劇，4月份ACP將這一數(shù)字大幅削減，由于石油公司大幅削減開(kāi)支，削減了10億多美元。據(jù)估計(jì)，維護(hù)和開(kāi)發(fā)支出將減少6.7億美元，勘探投資預(yù)計(jì)將減少3.7億美元。

勘探減少尤其令人擔(dān)憂，因?yàn)楦鐐惐葋喌氖蛢?chǔ)量有限，總計(jì)僅略高于20億桶，按目前的速度，大約相當(dāng)于六年的產(chǎn)量。對(duì)于一個(gè)嚴(yán)重依賴石油出口為現(xiàn)金短缺的中央政府創(chuàng)造財(cái)政收入、推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的國(guó)家來(lái)說(shuō)，鉆機(jī)數(shù)量的增加是一個(gè)積極的指標(biāo)。另一個(gè)好消息是，自波哥大9月份重新開(kāi)放經(jīng)濟(jì)以來(lái)，哥倫比亞三大私營(yíng)石油生產(chǎn)商正在提高產(chǎn)量。

郝芬 譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Colombia’s Oil Industry Is Showing Signs Of Recovery

While the August 2020 global rig count remains significantly lower than for the same period last year, because of oil’s protracted price slump, Colombia’s economically crucial petroleum industry appears to be recovering. Baker Hughes reported on Friday that there were seven active rigs in the strife-torn Latin American country, all of the oil rigs with no active natural gas rigs. This is the third straight month where the volume of operational rigs has increased, although it is still less than a third of what it was for the same month in 2019.

It was back in late-May 2020 that energy companies operating in Colombia began to recommence non-essential operations as the compulsory lockdown was eased to allow. crucial economic sectors to reopen. This is important for Colombia because of the Andean country’s reliance on oil production as a key economic driver. For July 2020 data from the central government’s statistical agency, DANE, showed petroleum was responsible for 25%, or $630 billion, of exports by value. This represents a steep 51% decline in the value of petroleum and derivative products which can be blamed on sharply lower oil production and substantially weaker prices.

During July, Colombia produced an average of 735,000 barrels of oil daily which, while almost 1% greater than a month earlier, was significantly lower than the 869,000 pumped for that month in 2019.

The outlook for Colombia’s petroleum industry appeared dire when oil prices collapsed in March 2020 and the COVID-19 pandemic emerged. Capital spending and investment in Colombia’s vital oil industry fell sharply as oil companies shuttered uneconomic production because of weaker prices and suspended non-essential operations. This crisis emerged after an optimistic start to 2020. In January, Colombia’s peak industry body, the Colombian Petroleum Association (ACP Spanish acronym), predicted that annual investment would grow 23% year over year to almost $5 billion. That number was slashed by the ACP in April, as the oil price rout bit deeper, by just over $1 billion because of significant spending reductions by oil companies. This was estimated would see maintenance and development spending fall by $670 million while investment in exploration was expected to decline $370 million. Reduced exploration is particularly worrying because of Colombia’s limited oil reserves totaling just over 2 billion barrels or roughly six years of production at the current rate. The rising rig count is a positive indicator for a country heavily dependent on oil exports to generate fiscal income for the cash strapped central government and drive economic growth. In further good news, Colombia’s three largest privately-owned oil producers are ramping up production since Bogota reopened the economy in September.