原油價(jià)格或?qū)⒌撩客?5美元左右

據(jù)9月7日Investing.com報(bào)道，上周末市場出乎意料地出現(xiàn)大震蕩。股票市場的走勢以FAANG和特斯拉的深度拋售為標(biāo)志。

多數(shù)市場觀察人士并不認(rèn)為周四和周五股指的下跌，以及周一早盤股指期貨面臨的一些壓力是一個(gè)大問題，因?yàn)檫@符合投資組合再平衡的假設(shè)。與此同時(shí)，投資者對銀行業(yè)和其他一些近幾個(gè)月來未能趕上股市上漲行情的公司的股票也越來越感興趣。

貨幣市場相對平靜，盡管美元指數(shù)周期性波動，但變化不大，這也在短期內(nèi)加強(qiáng)了當(dāng)前股市的下跌。

石油方面的情況有點(diǎn)令人擔(dān)憂。本月到目前為止，布倫特原油和西德克薩斯中質(zhì)油的價(jià)格已經(jīng)下跌了7%以上。周一開盤時(shí)，布倫特原油跌至每桶42美元下方，西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油跌至每桶39美元下方。這是自7月來的最低位。前兩個(gè)月的增長非常緩慢，而目前增長勢頭減弱，越來越讓人想起橫盤整理的趨勢?，F(xiàn)在看來，這一發(fā)展趨勢似乎是獲利回吐，因?yàn)橐呀?jīng)失去了增長的動力。

石油儲量數(shù)據(jù)與石油價(jià)格不符，在颶風(fēng)導(dǎo)致石油產(chǎn)量大幅下降的背景下，石油儲量下降幅度相對較小。這引起了人們對石油消費(fèi)恢復(fù)速度的懷疑。但貝克休斯(Hughes)周五指出，正在作業(yè)的鉆井平臺數(shù)量從三周前的172臺增加到目前的181臺。天然氣生產(chǎn)平臺的數(shù)量在7周內(nèi)增加了4個(gè)，達(dá)到72個(gè)。在這兩種情況下，生產(chǎn)的復(fù)蘇可以應(yīng)對價(jià)格從低點(diǎn)反彈。

本周初，有報(bào)道稱沙特阿拉伯將降低其出口售價(jià)，這也對油價(jià)構(gòu)成了壓力。這些行動引發(fā)了市場對新一輪爭奪市場份額以遏制美國原油產(chǎn)量增長的擔(dān)憂。

現(xiàn)在更傾向于熊市。由于2018年10月以來油價(jià)一直低于200天平均水平，投資者仍對打破兩年下跌趨勢的預(yù)期猶豫不定。在此期間，油價(jià)在突破高點(diǎn)的嘗試失敗后，下跌了15%-70%。

很難相信未來幾周70%的價(jià)格會像3-4月份那樣暴跌。不過，回調(diào)至每桶35美元，即4月份的高位，似乎是一種合乎邏輯的狀態(tài)。更有理由相信這一點(diǎn)的是，在過去的16年里，牛市和熊市之間經(jīng)常會發(fā)生巨大的沖突。

也許這一次，在價(jià)格達(dá)到界限水平之前，投資者們甚至不會出手支持。然而，印鈔機(jī)的強(qiáng)化運(yùn)作和石油需求國家的大規(guī)模政府刺激措施顯示，當(dāng)前的調(diào)整將是短暫的。鑒于市場的空前波動，布倫特原油價(jià)格將在今年年底前回到每桶50美元的水平，也就不足為奇了。

王佳晶 摘譯自 Investing.com

原文如下：

Crude Oil May Fall To The $35 Area Before Sellers Stop

The end of last week was unexpectedly stormy. The movements in the stock market were marked by a deep selloff of FAANG and Tesla

Most observers do not see the decline in the indices on Thursday and Friday and some pressure on index futures on Monday morning as a big problem, as it fits into the hypothesis of rebalancing portfolios. In parallel, there is increasing interest in stocks from companies in the banking sector and some others that have missed the market rally in recent months.

The comparative calm of the currency market, where the dollar index changes little despite periodic bursts of volatility, also reinforces in the short term the current stocks drawdown

The situation is a little more worrisome around oil. Brent and WTI have lost over 7% so far this month. At the start of trading on Monday, Brent sank below $42, while WTI dropped under $39. This is the area of lows since July, and there has been very cautious growth in the previous two months.

Looking at the Crude Oil charts, one can see growth momentum weakened and became more and more reminiscent of the sideways trend. The logical development of this movement now appears as profit-taking as it’s growth had lost its impulse.

Reserves data turned out to be against oil, showing a relatively modest decline against the backdrop of the collapse of production due to Hurricane Laura.

This raised doubts about the rate at which oil consumption is recovering. Besides, Backer Hughes on Friday noted an increase in the number of operating drilling rigs from 172 three weeks ago to 181 now. And the number of gas production rigs has increased by 4 in seven weeks to 72. In both cases, we see a recovery of producers in response to price bounces from lows.

At the start of the week, oil was also pressured by reports that Saudi Arabia will lower its export selling prices. These actions have triggered more price pressure, raising concerns about a possible new round of competition for market share to contain US Crude Oil production growth.

The technical picture is now more on the bear side. Their attack on Brent came from a 200-day average. A downward turn from this level indicates that players are still hesitant to speculate on breaking the two-year downward trend as oil has remained under the 200-day average since October 2018. During this time, after unsuccessful attempts to break through higher, the price has fallen by 15%-70%.

It is hard to believe that 70% of the price will collapse in the coming weeks, as it did in March-April. However, the correction to $35 – the highs of April – seems to be a logical scenario. All the more reason to believe this is that there has often been a final clash between bulls and bears over the last 16 years.

Perhaps this time the bulls will not even lay a supportive hand until prices reach these levels.

However, the intensified operation of the printing press and the vast government stimulus in Oil-demand countries make us gather that the current correction is to be short-lived. Given the unprecedented market volatility, it should not come as a surprise that the Brent barrel will return to $50 by the end of the year.