IEA：石油市場沒有大幅放緩但復(fù)蘇停滯

據(jù)路透社9月7日報道，國際能源署(IEA)一名官員表示，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)可能不會因疫情而再出現(xiàn)任何重大的放緩情況，但積壓的庫存和石油需求的不確定性給石油市場的復(fù)蘇蒙上了陰影。

IEA能源市場和安全主管Keisuke Sadamori表示，石油市場前景不確定性很大，但預(yù)計未來幾個月不會出現(xiàn)進(jìn)一步的嚴(yán)重放緩情況。盡管市場預(yù)計不會很快恢復(fù)真正強(qiáng)勁的增長，但需求較三個月前更為穩(wěn)定。

原油價格LCOc1 CLc1在春季爆跌至歷史低點(diǎn)，因疫情的封鎖打壓了需求，雖然目前降幅有所縮減，但仍停留在每桶40美元附近。

IEA在8月13日的月度報告中下調(diào)了對2020年石油需求的預(yù)期，并警告稱航空出行減少將導(dǎo)致全球石油日需求減少810萬桶。

總部位于巴黎的國際貨幣基金組織三個月來首次下調(diào)了其前景展望，因?yàn)橐咔槔^續(xù)在全球范圍內(nèi)打擊經(jīng)濟(jì)和帶來失業(yè)。

隨著布倫特原油價格周五錄得6月以來首次周跌幅，市場對需求、疲弱的煉油利潤率和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長放緩越來越緊張，減少了從充足庫存中提取原油和產(chǎn)品的動力。

Sadamori表示:“似乎還沒有出現(xiàn)大規(guī)模的股票拋售。我們沒有看到煉油活動出現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁回升，且航空燃油是一個大問題?！?/span>

路透社

IEA sees oil market stuck between no major slowdown but stalled recovery

The global economy is likely not headed for any major slowdown due to COVID-19 but piled-up storage and uncertainty over oil demand cloud oil markets’ recovery, an official with International Energy Agency (IEA) said.

Keisuke Sadamori, IEA director for energy markets and security, told Reuters the outlook for oil was in the midst of either a second wave or a steady first wave of the coronavirus.

“There is an enormous amount of uncertainty, but we don’t expect any additional serious slowdown in the coming months.”

“Even though (the market is) not expecting real robust growth coming back soon, the view on demand is more stable compared with three months ago,” he said in an interview.

Crude prices LCOc1 CLc1 plunged in spring to historic lows as the pandemic’s lockdowns crushed demand, and have pared losses but remained stuck near $40 a barrel.

The IEA cut its 2020 oil demand forecast in its monthly report on Aug. 13, warning that reduced air travel would lower global oil demand by 8.1 million barrels per day (bpd).

The Paris-based agency downgraded its outlook for the first time in three months, as the epidemic continues to wreak economic pain and job losses worldwide.

With Brent crude registering its first weekly loss since June on Friday, markets have grown increasingly nervous over demand, poor refining margins and slow economic growth, reducing incentives to draw crude and products from abundant stocks.

“It doesn’t seem like a massive stock draw seems to be happening yet,” Sadamori said.

“We are not seeing a robust pickup in refining activity, and jet fuel is the big problem,” he added.