美國(guó)石油鉆探活動(dòng)從低谷開(kāi)始回升

據(jù)路透社9月3日?qǐng)?bào)道，美國(guó)石油業(yè)可能在7月和8月度過(guò)了低谷期，9月或10月鉆井速度將開(kāi)始上升，2021年3月或4月產(chǎn)量將開(kāi)始回升。

自4月底觸及低點(diǎn)以來(lái)，美國(guó)原油期貨近月價(jià)格在過(guò)去19周逐步上漲。在過(guò)去的30年里，隨著期貨價(jià)格的變化，鉆井活動(dòng)的變化通常會(huì)平均延遲4-5個(gè)月(15-20周)，產(chǎn)量的變化通常會(huì)延遲9-12個(gè)月。

價(jià)格變化導(dǎo)致的鉆井延遲，可以解釋為企業(yè)重新評(píng)估鉆井計(jì)劃、鉆機(jī)合約、將其移至井場(chǎng)、安裝并開(kāi)始鉆探所需的時(shí)間。由于達(dá)到目標(biāo)井深、封井、固井、壓裂、安裝井口設(shè)備、流量測(cè)試、將油井連接到集油系統(tǒng)以及開(kāi)始商業(yè)生產(chǎn)等方面的時(shí)間需要，產(chǎn)量的最終變化還會(huì)進(jìn)一步推遲。

每一口井和每一個(gè)周期都略有不同，但在過(guò)去三十年的期貨價(jià)格周期中，鉆井速度和產(chǎn)量呈現(xiàn)出一種固定的順序和標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的滯后期限。

鑒于油價(jià)在19周前跌至周期性低點(diǎn)，此后又翻了一番，很可能鉆井速度現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)接近或超過(guò)了當(dāng)前周期的低點(diǎn)。事實(shí)上，據(jù)油田服務(wù)公司貝克休斯(Baker Hughes)的數(shù)據(jù)，上周美國(guó)有180個(gè)鉆井平臺(tái)在鉆探石油，高于兩周前172個(gè)鉆井平臺(tái)的當(dāng)前周期低點(diǎn)。

在3月中旬至7月中旬期間，活躍的石油鉆井平臺(tái)數(shù)量下降了近75%，但在過(guò)去七周內(nèi)基本穩(wěn)定，這可能表明鉆井周期的最低點(diǎn)已經(jīng)到來(lái)。

今年最后幾個(gè)月，隨著4月份以來(lái)的油價(jià)上漲開(kāi)始滲透到商業(yè)決策和合同中，鉆井平臺(tái)數(shù)量可能會(huì)開(kāi)始呈上升趨勢(shì)。相比之下，產(chǎn)量可能會(huì)持續(xù)下降幾個(gè)月，直到2020年底或2021年初，然后再次回升。

自然產(chǎn)量下降將減少在疫情爆發(fā)前開(kāi)始生產(chǎn)的油井的產(chǎn)量，而自疫情爆發(fā)后鉆井速度下降意味著產(chǎn)量不會(huì)完全被取代。最終，更高的價(jià)格和更高的鉆井速度將導(dǎo)致新產(chǎn)量彌補(bǔ)舊產(chǎn)量的損失，總產(chǎn)量將企穩(wěn)并開(kāi)始回升。

確切的時(shí)間顯然取決于價(jià)格走勢(shì)，但產(chǎn)出最可能觸底回升的時(shí)間是2020年第四季度末或2021年第一季度。

自4月份以來(lái)的油價(jià)上漲表明，將需要更多的鉆井活動(dòng)和更多的新油井產(chǎn)量來(lái)穩(wěn)定產(chǎn)量，并提供必要的現(xiàn)金流。近幾周來(lái)，美國(guó)原油期貨價(jià)格一直穩(wěn)定在每桶40至45美元左右，這一表明，在這一區(qū)間產(chǎn)出將保持穩(wěn)定。但如果油價(jià)繼續(xù)攀升至每桶50美元或更高水平，鉆井速度將進(jìn)一步加快，從2021年下半年開(kāi)始，產(chǎn)量將有更大的增長(zhǎng)。

王佳晶 摘譯自 路透社

原文如下：

Column: U.S. oil drilling set to start rising after cycle turns

The U.S. oil industry probably passed the low point in the current cycle in July and August, with drilling rates set to start increasing from September or October and production turning up from March or April 2021.

Since hitting a low in late April, when the coronavirus epidemic was raging and lockdowns were most stringent, front-month U.S. oil futures prices have progressively risen for the last 19 weeks.

Over the last 30 years, changes in futures prices have typically been followed by changes in drilling with an average delay of 4-5 months (15-20 weeks) and changes in output with an overall delay of 9-12 months.

The delay from changes in prices to drilling can be explained by the time needed for businesses to re-evaluate drilling programmes, contract rigs, move them to the well site, rig them up and start boring.

Further delays to final changes in production are due to the time needed to reach target well depth, case and cement the well, fracture the formation, install wellhead equipment, flow test, link the well up to gathering systems and start commercial output.

Every well and every cycle is slightly different, but in the last three decades cycles in futures prices, drilling rates and production have followed each other in a standard sequence with fairly standard lags.

Given that oil prices hit a cyclical low 19 weeks ago, doubling in the meantime, it is very likely drilling rates are now near or beyond their low point for the current cycle (tmsnrt.rs/3jQFqj9).

In fact, there were 180 rigs drilling for oil last week in the United States, up from a current-cycle low of 172 two weeks earlier, according to oilfield services company Baker Hughes.

The number of active oil rigs has been broadly stable for the last seven weeks, after plunging almost 75% between mid-March and mid-July, which may indicate the low point of the drilling cycle has been reached.

The rig count is likely to start trending higher over the last few months of the year as the rise in oil prices since April starts to filter through into business decisions and contracting.

By contrast, production is likely to continue trending lower for several months more until the end of 2020 or early 2021 before turning higher again.

Natural declines will reduce output from wells that started producing before the epidemic, while the reduced rate of drilling since then means it will not be completely replaced.

Eventually, higher prices and higher drilling rates will cause new production to make up for the loss of old output and total production will stabilise and start increasing again.

The precise timing obviously depends on the course of prices, but the most likely time frame for output to hit a trough and turn higher is towards the end of the fourth quarter of 2020 or in the first quarter of 2021.

The rise in prices since April is a signal more drilling and more new well output will be needed to stabilise production and will provide the necessary cash flow.

The fact U.S. oil futures prices have been steadying around $40-45 per barrel in recent weeks indicates this is the range expected to stabilise output.

But if prices continue climbing to $50 or more, drilling will accelerate further, generating a larger production increase from the second half of 2021 onwards.