MUFG預(yù)測(cè)2020年布倫特原油均價(jià)為46.2美元

據(jù)9月3日Trade Arabia消息：日本銀行控股和金融服務(wù)公司三菱UFJ金融集團(tuán)(MUFG)最新的《石油市場(chǎng)周報(bào)》稱，布倫特原油預(yù)計(jì)將在2020年第三季度末達(dá)到每桶44.1美元，第四季度達(dá)到每桶48.7美元。報(bào)告指出，預(yù)計(jì)2020年全年布倫特原油平均價(jià)格為每桶46.2美元。而2021年布倫特原油的平均價(jià)格預(yù)測(cè)將維持在56.6美元。

MUFG在報(bào)告中表示:“我們對(duì)油價(jià)的預(yù)估明顯轉(zhuǎn)向看漲，主要反映了三個(gè)方面的發(fā)展。"

"首先，自6月初以來，基本面趨緊，投資者對(duì)石油市場(chǎng)的熱情日益高漲，導(dǎo)致市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)赤字。

其次，美元持續(xù)貶值(美元疲軟使以美元計(jì)價(jià)的大宗商品相對(duì)而言更便宜)，目前油價(jià)與美元的負(fù)相關(guān)性達(dá)到近8年高點(diǎn)。

第三，沙特原油的官方售價(jià)(OSP)仍低于歷史平均水平，旨在以具有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的有利水平出售，以提振需求?！?/span>

馮娟 摘譯自 Trade Arabia

原文如下:

Brent crude to average $46.2 in 2020: MUFG

Brent crude is expected to reach $44.1 per barrel (/b) towards the end of the third quarter (Q3) of 2020 and $48.7/b in Q4, a report said, noting that Brent is forecasted to average $46.2/b for 2020 as a whole.

For 2021, the average forecast for Brent is maintained at $56.6, said the latest Oil Market Weekly report from Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG), a Japanese bank holding and financial services company

“Our oil price conviction is emphatically shifting more bullish, reflecting three developments,” MUFG said in the report.

“First, tightening fundamentals with investors increasingly embracing the oil markets move into deficit since early June.

“Second, ongoing US dollar ($) depreciation (a weak $ makes $ priced commodities cheaper to purchase on a relative basis) – with the negative oil-$ correlation currently at a near eight year high.

“Third, the official selling price (OSP) for Saudi crude remains below historical averages, in a bid to sell at competitively favourable levels to prop-up demand,” it added.