高盛預(yù)計(jì)明年油價(jià)將達(dá)到65美元/桶

據(jù)今日油價(jià)網(wǎng)站9月2日消息 高盛分析師稱，2021年第三季度布倫特原油價(jià)格將達(dá)到65美元/桶，不過今年年底可能會走低，將為58美元/桶。

據(jù)《財(cái)經(jīng)內(nèi)幕》報(bào)道，高盛分析師在一份報(bào)告中還表示，預(yù)計(jì)西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油將在明年第三季度上漲至55.88美元/桶，高于此前預(yù)測的51.38美元/桶。

高盛分析師表示：“從明年春天開始，疫苗將越來越有可能普及，幫助支撐全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和石油需求，尤其是噴氣式飛機(jī)?！?/span>

他們補(bǔ)充說：“盡管今夏庫存提振停滯，現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格反彈的關(guān)鍵在于長期價(jià)格的穩(wěn)步上漲?！?/span>

今年早些時候，該投行大宗商品業(yè)務(wù)主管杰弗里·柯里表示，短期內(nèi)石油前景依然疲弱，但到2021年，油價(jià)將開始出現(xiàn)更明顯的改善。他在7月份指出，如果價(jià)格快速上漲，將通過使更多頁巖氣產(chǎn)量重新上線而干擾市場的再平衡。

另外，高盛分析師早在7月就表示，受數(shù)百萬人重返工作崗位、轉(zhuǎn)向更多私人運(yùn)輸以及政府以基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施支出形式提供支持等刺激，到2022年石油需求可能會恢復(fù)到危機(jī)前的水平。

該投行分析師在最新報(bào)告中表示，預(yù)計(jì)明年1-8月，石油需求將改善370萬桶/日，而由于歐佩克+繼續(xù)減產(chǎn)以及非歐佩克供應(yīng)的適度增加，供應(yīng)仍將受限。

油價(jià)本周開盤上漲，受中國利好經(jīng)濟(jì)消息、美元疲軟以及阿聯(lián)酋國有石油公司計(jì)劃在10月減少多達(dá)30%的原油供應(yīng)影響，油價(jià)升至五個月來的最高水平。

王磊 摘譯自 今日油價(jià)

原文如下：

Goldman Expects Oil To Reach $65 Next Year

Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude to reach $65 a barrel in the third quarter of 2021, although it could end the year lower, at $58 a barrel, according to Goldman Sachs analysts.

In a note, they also said they expected West Texas Intermediate to rally to $55.88 a barrel by the third quarter of next year, up from $51.38 a barrel in earlier forecasts, Business Insider reports.

"There is a growing likelihood that vaccines will become widely available starting next spring, helping support global growth and oil demand, especially jet," the Goldman analysts said.

"Key to the resilience of spot prices, despite stalling inventory draws this summer, has been the steady rally in long-dated prices," they added.

Earlier this year, the investment bank's head of commodities Jeffrey Currie said that the short-term prospects of oil remained weak, but in 2021, prices would start to improve more markedly. He noted in July that if prices increased quickly, they would interfere with the market rebalancing by bringing more shale production back online.

Separately, Goldman analysts said back in July that demand for oil would likely recover to pre-crisis levels by 2022, spurred by a return to work for millions, a shift towards more private transport, and government support in the form of infrastructure spending.

In their latest note, the investment bank's analysts said they expected oil demand to improve by 3.7 million bpd between January and August next year, while supply remains capped thanks to OPEC+' continuing production cuts and a modest increase in non-OPEC supply.

Oil started this week with a gain, rising to the highest in five months on the back of positive economic news from China, a weak greenback, and plans by the UAE's state oil company to reduce crude oil supplies by as much as 30 percent in October.