原油產(chǎn)量反彈令油價前景堪憂

據(jù)8月28日MENAFN消息：盡管美國原油庫存連續(xù)六周收縮，但油價仍從月度新高(43.78美元)回落，能源價格可能在未來幾天繼續(xù)走強，原因是石油輸出國組織(歐佩克)逐漸收回針對疫情的自愿減產(chǎn)。

油價可能會繼續(xù)從3月份的高點(48.66美元)回落，因為它突破了本月早些時候的價格波動區(qū)間，而聯(lián)合部長級監(jiān)督委員會(JMMC)會議的進(jìn)展對原油價格的復(fù)蘇細(xì)節(jié)沒有什么幫助，盡管歐佩克及其盟友觀察到一些市場狀況逐漸改善的跡象，包括2020年7月的庫存增加出現(xiàn)逆轉(zhuǎn)，以及全球石油供需缺口縮小。

歐佩克及其盟國或?qū)⒃诮衲暧嘞碌臅r間里繼續(xù)進(jìn)行協(xié)調(diào)，因為八月JMMC會議的新聞稿強調(diào)了“合作宣言在支持全球石油平衡方面的持續(xù)積極貢獻(xiàn)”。但是隨著俄羅斯最大石油生產(chǎn)商之一盧克石油等公司在8月初增產(chǎn)，疫情補償機制的失效可能會影響原油價格的復(fù)蘇。

歐佩克最新月度石油市場報告指出：“預(yù)計2020年世界石油需求將減少910萬桶/天，與上月的評估相比，下調(diào)約0.1萬桶/天。”

最新數(shù)據(jù)說明，下調(diào)主要是為了反映一些非經(jīng)合組織國家2020年第二季度的數(shù)據(jù)弱于預(yù)期，此外還考慮到最近對2020年全球國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的調(diào)整，從7月的-3.7%調(diào)整到8月的-4.0%

反過來，盡管隨著全球產(chǎn)量似乎在8月觸底，美國原油庫存持續(xù)萎縮，但幾乎沒有跡象表明V形復(fù)蘇可能會對石油帶來阻力。

實際上，截至8月21日的一周，美國庫存減少4.689萬桶，而此前一周庫存減少1.632萬桶，但能源信息署(EIA)發(fā)布的最新數(shù)據(jù)顯示，產(chǎn)量自2月下旬以來首次增加，從截至8月14日一周的1070萬桶/天增加升至1080萬桶/天。

盡管如此，原油產(chǎn)量的進(jìn)一步反彈可能拖累油價，因為長期復(fù)蘇的跡象抑制了全球需求的前景。

馮娟 摘譯自 MENAFN

原文如下:

Oil Price Outlook Mired by Rebound in Crude Production

The price of oil pulls back from a fresh monthly high ($43.78) even though US Crude Inventories contract for six consecutive weeks, and energy prices may continue to consolidate over the coming days as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) gradually rollback the voluntary production cuts in response to COVID-19.

The price of oil may continue to retrace the decline from the March high ($48.66) as it breaks out of the range bound price action from earlier this month, with the developments coming out of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting doing little to detail the recovery in crude prices even though OPEC and its allies 'observed that there are some signs of gradually improving market conditions, including the inventory build in July 2020 being reversed and the lessening of the gap between global oil demand and supply.'

It seems as though as OPEC and its allies will continue to coordinate throughout the remainder of the year as the press rerelease from the August JMMC meeting emphasizes the 'ongoing positive contributions of the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) in supporting a rebalancing of the global oil market,' but the expiration of the COVID-19 compensation mechanism may rattle the recovery in crude prices as companies like Lukoil, one of Russia's largest oil producer, increased production in earlier August according to the company's second quarter earnings report.

It remains to be seen if demand will continue to recover ahead of the next JMMC meeting scheduled for September 16-17 as OPEC's most recent Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) states that 'world oil demand in 2020 is estimated to decrease by 9.1 mb/d, adjusted lower by around 0.1 mb/d ascompared to last month's assessment.'

The update goes onto say that 'the downward revision is mainly to reflect weaker-than-expected data in 2Q20 in a few non-OECD countries, in addition to considering the recent adjustment to global GDP in 2020 from -3.7% in July to -4.0% in August.'

In turn, little signs of a V-shape recovery may produce headwinds for oil despite the ongoing contraction in US Crude Inventories as global production appears to have bottomed in August.

In fact, US stockpiles narrowed 4689K in the week ending August 21 after contracting 1632K the week prior, but the fresh figures coming out of the Energy Information Energy (EIA) showed production increasing for the first time since late-February, with weekly output climbing to 10,800K b/d from 10,700K b/d in the week ending August 14.

With that said, a further rebound in crude production may drag on the price of oil as signs of a protracted recovery dampens the outlook for global demand.