市場接近復(fù)蘇關(guān)鍵轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn) 油價(jià)前景向好

據(jù)世界管道8月10日報(bào)道，Roger Diwan和IHS Markit能源咨詢服務(wù)公司稱，石油市場已經(jīng)回到相對穩(wěn)定的水平，布倫特原油價(jià)格在40至45美元/桶的窄幅區(qū)間內(nèi)，并有可能在2021年下半年最終突破50美元/桶大關(guān)。

IHS Markit將布倫特原油2020年平均價(jià)格預(yù)期上調(diào)至42.35新元/桶，將2021年平均價(jià)格上調(diào)至49.25新元/桶，這較5月份的預(yù)測分別上調(diào)里7.09美元/桶和5.25美元/桶。

由于受新冠肺炎疫情最嚴(yán)重時(shí)期的重創(chuàng)，石油市場目前正處于一個微妙的轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)，正在向IHS Markit預(yù)測的石油市場復(fù)蘇三個階段的第二個階段過渡。

IHS Markit金融服務(wù)副總裁Roger Diwan表示，沙特阿拉伯及其歐佩克合作伙伴在5月和6月進(jìn)行了創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的減產(chǎn)，在加速全球石油市場實(shí)現(xiàn)再平衡方面發(fā)揮了關(guān)鍵作用。隨著需求從4月份的低點(diǎn)復(fù)蘇，市場又多了一個月的時(shí)間來站穩(wěn)腳跟，這些出口企業(yè)現(xiàn)在已從管理危機(jī)期間的直接盈余，轉(zhuǎn)向管理復(fù)蘇。

復(fù)蘇的第二階段是一個微妙的過渡階段，在這個階段，隨著維也納聯(lián)盟(Vienna Alliance)和北美產(chǎn)油國恢復(fù)閑置供應(yīng)能力，過剩的庫存會減少，供應(yīng)也會增加。

歐佩克+和美國將在7月和8月恢復(fù)400萬桶/天的產(chǎn)量。與此同時(shí)，全球需求復(fù)蘇正顯示出明顯的趨穩(wěn)跡象。

IHS Markit預(yù)計(jì)，未來四個季度，布倫特原油均價(jià)將維持在40至47美元/桶的區(qū)間內(nèi)，除非出現(xiàn)第二波冠狀病毒疫情導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)大面積停滯。

這一穩(wěn)定時(shí)期將為復(fù)蘇過程中更為結(jié)構(gòu)性的階段讓路，在這一階段，需求逐步正常化，經(jīng)合組織商業(yè)庫存使俄羅斯和海灣地區(qū)主要產(chǎn)油國的大部分閑置產(chǎn)能得以恢復(fù)，可能最早在2021年下半年開始，屆時(shí)布倫特原油價(jià)格可能最終突破50美元/桶大關(guān)。

王佳晶 摘譯自 世界管道

原文如下：

Outlook for crude oil prices strengthens through 2021 as markets approach key ‘pivot point’ of recovery

Oil markets have returned to relatively stable ground with Brent prices within a narrow US$40 – 45/bbl range and could conclusively pass the US$50/bbl mark in the second half of 2021, according to Roger Diwan and the IHS Markit Energy Advisory Service.

The IHS Markit Brent price outlook has been revised upward to an average price of S$42.35/bbl in 2020 and S$49.25/bbl in 2021 – up US$7.09/bbl and US$5.25/bbl, respectively, from the outlook in May.

Emerging bruised and battered from the worst of the COVID-19 outbreak, oil markets are now at a delicate pivot point as they transition to phase II of the IHS Markit Three Phases of Oil Markets Recovery.

“The record cuts set in motion in May and June by Saudi Arabia and its OPEC+ partners played a pivotal role in accelerating the improbable rebalancing of global oil markets. With demand recovering from April lows and after giving markets an extra month to find their footing, these exporters have now moved from managing the immediate surplus of the crisis towards managing the recovery.” – Roger Diwan, Vice President Financial Services, IHS Markit.

Phase II of the recovery (the “just-in-time oil market” phase) is a delicate transition phase in which surplus inventories are worked down in parallel with rising supply as spare supply capacity returns from Vienna Alliance and North American producers.

OPEC+ and the United States are bringing back over 4 million bpd of production in July and August. Meanwhile, the global demand recovery is showing clear signs of plateauing and Chinese crude buying has begun to soften.

Barring a large second wave of COVID-19 cases driving widespread economic shutdowns, IHS Markit expects Brent will stay within a US$40 - 47/bbl price band on average over the next four quarters.

This stabilisation period will make way for the more structural stage of the recovery process, wherein the progressive normalization of demand and OECD commercial stocks allows a return of most spare capacity in Russia and in the key producing countries in the Gulf. This could start as early as the second half of 2021, when Brent prices could conclusively pass the US$50/bbl mark.