疫情致全球商用航空燃油消耗量下降69%

據(jù)全球能源新聞網(wǎng)8月8日報道，遏制2019年新型冠狀病毒的努力極大地改變了全球商業(yè)客運(yùn)運(yùn)量。這些航班在1月和2月平均每天超過7萬架次，4月降至平均每天不到2.5萬架次，然后在5月又開始增加。商用航空燃油消耗也呈現(xiàn)類似的趨勢，從1月和2月的日均430萬桶降至4月的日均100萬桶。

為了估計全球航空燃料消耗的變化，美國能源信息署(EIA)最近開始使用航空公司Cirium提供的數(shù)據(jù)，這些數(shù)據(jù)詳細(xì)列出了自2019年1月以來的每一次定期商業(yè)客運(yùn)航班，包括飛行的飛機(jī)類型及其航線。EIA利用每個航班的出發(fā)地和目的地的數(shù)據(jù)，估算了每個航班消耗的航空燃料量，并將這些航班相加，從而估算出全球商業(yè)客運(yùn)航班消耗的航空燃料總量。

EIA估計，7月份前兩周商業(yè)客運(yùn)航班的航空燃油日均消耗量為160萬桶，較一年前下降69%。全球航空燃料需求的最大降幅發(fā)生在3月和4月，正好與最初加緊努力減緩疫情的擴(kuò)散相吻合。在全球范圍內(nèi)，2月至3月間，商用客運(yùn)航班的航空燃油日消耗量減少70萬桶，3月至4月間減少了240萬桶，盡管5月日需求僅增加了10萬桶，6月增加了30萬桶。

盡管市場最初下跌和低點的時間各不相同(主要反映了疫情傳播的時間)，但幾乎所有主要市場的航空燃料需求都從4月和5月的低點有所上升。然而，復(fù)蘇的程度并不相同。雖然今年6月中國商用航班的航空燃油平均消費量較去年同期下降43%，但世界其他地區(qū)的降幅更大:

?前蘇聯(lián)地區(qū)70%

?美國75%

?中東和北非77%

?亞太其它地區(qū)80%

?非洲其他地區(qū)85%

?歐洲87%

?美洲其他地區(qū)88%

在一國境內(nèi)發(fā)生的航空旅行所占份額是飛機(jī)燃料需求下降的一個關(guān)鍵驅(qū)動因素。 由于對國內(nèi)旅行的限制較少，通常所涉距離較短，以及國內(nèi)航空旅行用于商業(yè)或非娛樂目的的份額較大，主要用于國內(nèi)航空旅行的內(nèi)地機(jī)場通常比其典型的沿海、更面向國際的同行恢復(fù)得更快。這種復(fù)蘇的證據(jù)是國內(nèi)航班的航空燃油消費相對回升。盡管在2019年6月占全球商業(yè)客運(yùn)航班總?cè)加拖牡?0%，但截至2020年6月，國內(nèi)航班的份額已增長至56%。這一趨勢在中國尤其明顯。同期，中國國內(nèi)航班消耗的航空燃油占中國航空總油耗的比例從53%升至83%。

郝芬 譯自 全球能源新聞網(wǎng)

原文如下：

COVID-19 OUTBREAK CAUSED COMMERCIAL JET FUEL CONSUMPTION TO FALL BY 69%

Efforts to contain the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) have dramatically changed global commercial passenger flight volumes. These flights averaged a little more than 70,000 flights per day in January and February, fell to an average of less than 25,000 flights per day in April, and then started to increase again in May. Commercial jet fuel consumption showed a similar pattern, falling from an average of 4.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in January and February to 1.0 million b/d in April.

To estimate global changes in jet fuel consumption, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently began using data from aviation company Cirium that detail each scheduled commercial passenger flight, including the type of aircraft flown and its route, since January 2019. Using data on each flight’s origin and destination, EIA estimated the volume of jet fuel consumed by each flight and summed these flights to estimate the total volume of jet fuel consumed globally by commercial passenger flights.

EIA estimates that consumption of jet fuel by commercial passenger flights averaged 1.6 million b/d during the first two weeks of July, 69% less than the level one year ago. The largest decline in global demand for jet fuel occurred during March and April, coinciding with the initial, intensified efforts to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. Globally, consumption of jet fuel by commercial passenger flights declined by 0.7 million b/d between February and March and by 2.4 million b/d between March and April, although demand grew by only 0.1 million b/d in May and 0.3 million b/d in June.

Although the timing of a market’s initial decline and low point varies (largely reflecting the timing of the spread of COVID-19), jet fuel demand in nearly every major market has increased from the lows of April and May. The extent of this recovery has not been equal, however. Although average June 2020 consumption of jet fuel by commercial flights in China was down 43% relative to the same time last year, consumption was down significantly more in other parts of the world:

? 70% in the countries of the former Soviet Union

? 75% in the United States

? 77% in the Middle East and North Africa

? 80% in the rest of the Asia-Pacific region

? 85% in the rest of Africa

? 87% in Europe

? 88% in the rest of the Americas

The share of air travel that occurs within a country’s borders is one key driver of declines in demand for jet fuel. Because of the less severe restrictions on domestic travel, the shorter distances typically involved, and the larger share of domestic air travel for business or non-recreational purposes, interior airports that cater primarily to domestic air travel have generally recovered faster than their typically coastal, more internationally oriented peers. Evidence of this recovery is in the relative resurgence of jet fuel consumption by domestic flights. Despite constituting 30% of all jet fuel consumed globally by commercial passenger flights in June 2019, as of June 2020, the domestic flight share had grown to 56%. This trend has been particularly true in China, where the share of jet fuel consumed by domestic flights rose from 53% to 83% during the same period.