2020年全球天然氣和LNG需求將縮減約4%

據(jù)路透社8月7日報道，行業(yè)游說組織國際天然氣聯(lián)盟等機構(gòu)的一項研究顯示，2020年受新冠疫情影響，全球天然氣和液化天然氣(LNG)需求將從2019年的紀錄高位縮減約4%。

研究報告稱，盡管如此，但由于供應(yīng)充足且價格持續(xù)低迷，隨著世界經(jīng)濟恢復(fù)勢頭，未來兩年需求仍能恢復(fù)到Covid-19爆發(fā)前的水平。

報告預(yù)測，在2019年飆升13%至創(chuàng)紀錄的4820億立方米后， 2020年全球LNG需求將下降約4.2％。

IGU與意大利天然氣公司Snam SpA和研究公司BloombergNEF合作撰寫了這份報告。

今年初，由于政府為阻止病毒蔓延而采取的封鎖措施，導(dǎo)致全球天然氣需求暴跌，歐洲和亞洲的天然氣價格跌至紀錄低點，美國價格跌至24年低點。

分析師表示，目前價格仍處于低位，且預(yù)計未來數(shù)年內(nèi)將保持在相對較低水平，這應(yīng)該會鼓勵公用事業(yè)公司在未來幾年內(nèi)燃燒更多的天然氣。

國際能源署(IEA)在其《2019年世界能源展望》的 “既定政策設(shè)想 ”中表示，到2040年，天然氣使用量將平均增長1.4%。

不過，IEA也在其“可持續(xù)發(fā)展設(shè)想”中表示，如果各國政府采取更強有力的氣候政策，全球天然氣使用量將從本世紀20年代末開始下降。

IGU表示，通過采用氫氣等清潔氣體技術(shù)，可以減少約三分之一的能源相關(guān)排放。

Snam首席執(zhí)行官Marco Alvera表示：“我們的目標是降低綠色氫氣的成本，直到它能與化石燃料競爭?！彼赋觯骸皵U大氫氣生產(chǎn)規(guī)模的明智方法是將其與現(xiàn)有天然氣管道中的天然氣混合”。

沈韓曄 摘譯自 路透社

原文如下：

Pandemic to cut global gas and LNG demand by about 4 per cent in 2020: industry group

The coronavirus pandemic will cut global natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand by about 4 per cent in 2020 from record highs in 2019, according to a study by the International Gas Union, an industry lobby group, and others.

Still, demand can recover to pre-Covid-19 levels in the next two years as the world economy regains momentum, the study said, citing abundant supply and continued low prices.

The report projected global LNG demand will fall about 4.2 per cent in 2020 after soaring 13 per cent in 2019 to a record 482 billion cubic meters.

IGU partnered with Italian gas company Snam SpA and BloombergNEF, a research company, to write the report.

The collapse in global gas demand due to government lockdowns to stop the spread of the virus caused prices to fall to record lows in Europe and Asia earlier this year. US prices dropped to a 24-year low.

Analysts said prices are still low and are expected to remain relatively low for years, which should encourage utilities to burn more gas in coming years.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said in the "Stated Policies Scenario" of its 2019 World Energy Outlook that gas use will grow by an average of 1.4 per cent through 2040.

IEA, however, also said in its "Sustainable Development Scenario" that global gas use would decline from the end of the 2020s onward if governments embrace stronger climate policies.

IGU said about a third of energy-related emissions could be abated by adoption of clean gas technologies, like hydrogen.

"The goal is to bring down the cost of green hydrogen until it becomes competitive with fossil fuels," Snam CEO Marco Alvera said, noting "A smart way to scale up hydrogen production is blending it with natural gas in existing gas pipelines."