歐佩克+增加供應(yīng) 燃料油需求減弱

據(jù)彭博社8月5日?qǐng)?bào)道，隨著本月歐佩克+的部分原油供應(yīng)從本月恢復(fù)，對(duì)高硫燃料油的意外需求提振將有所緩解。

歐佩克的減產(chǎn)以及地緣政治因素，打擊了重質(zhì)原油的供應(yīng)，迫使從美國(guó)到印度的加工商加大對(duì)高硫燃料油的購(gòu)買(mǎi)，以作為其煉油廠的替代原料。需求增加導(dǎo)致貿(mào)易出現(xiàn)逆轉(zhuǎn)，市場(chǎng)陷入供應(yīng)小于需求的狀態(tài)，但隨著歐佩克+打開(kāi)供應(yīng)閥門(mén)，預(yù)計(jì)供應(yīng)將變得更加充足。

雖然大量的燃料以前是用來(lái)為船舶提供動(dòng)力的，但在今年實(shí)施了新的規(guī)定，要求船舶使用更清潔的燃料，除非在船上安裝了昂貴的凈化設(shè)備，隨后高硫燃料需求下降。最近的需求激增也與中東的季節(jié)性需求增長(zhǎng)相吻合——中東進(jìn)口燃料油用于夏季發(fā)電。

由于競(jìng)爭(zhēng)加劇，沙特阿拉伯已被迫為其發(fā)電站尋求替代燃料油，而印度今年1-7月的高硫燃料油購(gòu)買(mǎi)量較上年同期增長(zhǎng)了兩倍以上。Vortexa Ltd.高級(jí)分析師Serena Huang表示，通常從歐洲和俄羅斯運(yùn)往新加坡的原油已轉(zhuǎn)往美國(guó)，作為煉油廠的原料。

據(jù)知情交易員透露，泰國(guó)和韓國(guó)的煉油商近幾個(gè)月也購(gòu)買(mǎi)了更多燃料油，用作替代原料。這些國(guó)家進(jìn)口石油的時(shí)間與沙特阿拉伯和伊拉克等國(guó)大幅削減石油供應(yīng)的時(shí)間一致，這兩個(gè)產(chǎn)油國(guó)傾向于出口高硫原油。

據(jù)彭博社數(shù)據(jù)顯示7月初，新加坡高硫燃料油價(jià)格自2月份以來(lái)首次出現(xiàn)現(xiàn)貨溢價(jià)，暗示供應(yīng)趨緊。

JBC Energy的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，上月石油市場(chǎng)吃緊，缺口超過(guò)50萬(wàn)桶/天，超過(guò)5年平均水平。JBC表示，預(yù)計(jì)到今年年底，原油短缺將緩解至每天10萬(wàn)桶的較正常的水平，而伍德曼肯茲公司也認(rèn)為供應(yīng)緊張狀況將有所緩和。煉油廠可以使用燃料油作為工廠二級(jí)裝置的原料，以生產(chǎn)柴油和其他高端產(chǎn)品。

伍德麥肯茲亞太區(qū)煉油業(yè)務(wù)研究總監(jiān)蘇珊特?古普塔（Sushant Gupta）表示，印度信實(shí)工業(yè)有限公司（Reliance Industries Ltd.）等擁有二級(jí)燃料油升級(jí)裝置的綜合煉油企業(yè)將受益最大，因?yàn)樗鼈冊(cè)跊](méi)有重質(zhì)原油的情況下可以靈活使用替代原料。根據(jù)JBC的數(shù)據(jù)，相比之下，歐洲的基礎(chǔ)煉油廠在原油價(jià)格過(guò)高后不得不關(guān)閉或降低運(yùn)行率。

然而，隨著歐佩克取消歷史性的供應(yīng)限制措施，并向市場(chǎng)恢復(fù)更多供應(yīng)，專(zhuān)門(mén)加工重質(zhì)含硫原油的煉油廠將恢復(fù)使用更熟悉的原料，從而減少對(duì)燃料油的購(gòu)買(mǎi)。

王佳晶 摘譯自 彭博社

原文如下：

Dirty Oil’s Unusual Demand Boost Set to Wane on OPEC+ Easing

An unexpected demand boost for dirty fuel oil is poised to ease with the return of some OPEC+ crude supply from this month.

Cuts by the producer alliance, hitting supplies of heavier crude and forcing processors from the U.S. to India to boost buying of high-sulfur fuel oil to use as an alternative feedstock in their refineries. Typically a by-product of crude refining, increased demand upended trade flows and drove the market into a deep deficit, but supply is expected to become more abundant as refiners switch back to crude with OPEC+ opening the taps.

While a large chunk of the fuel was previously used to power ships, consumption has waned after new regulations were implemented this year mandating vessels use cleaner burning fuels unless they are fitted with expensive pollution kits. The recent demand surge also coincided with a seasonal boost from the Middle East, which imports fuel oil for use in electricity generation during the hotter summer months.

Saudi Arabia has been forced to tap alternative markets for its power-station fuel due to intensifying competition, while Indian high-sulfur fuel oil purchases more than tripled through January to July from a year earlier. Shipments typically bound for Singapore from Europe and Russia have been diverted to the U.S. for refinery feedstock, said Serena Huang, a senior analyst with Vortexa Ltd.

Refiners in Thailand and South Korea have also purchased more fuel oil in recent months to use as an alternative feedstock, according to traders familiar with the matter. The timing of their imports was in-line with sharp cuts to supplies from nations such as Saudi Arabia and Iraq, two producers that tend to export sulfurous and high-density crude.

High-sulfur fuel oil prices in Singapore flipped into backwardation in early July for the first time since February, according to Bloomberg Fair Value data, signaling tighter supply.

The market tightened to a deficit of more than 500,000 barrels a day last month, more than the five-year average, according to JBC Energy. The shortage is expected to ease to a “more normal” 100,000 barrels a day by the end of the year, said JBC, while Wood Mackenzie Ltd. also sees supply tightness moderating. Refiners can use fuel oil as a feedstock for secondary units at a plant to produce fuels such as diesel and other higher-end products.

Complex refiners such as India’s Reliance Industries Ltd.,which have the secondary units to upgrade fuel oil, would benefit the most because they have the flexibility to use the alternative feedstock when heavy crude isn’t available, said Sushant Gupta, research director of Asia Pacific refining at Wood Mackenzie. That compares with simple refiners in Europe that had to shut down or cut run rates after crude became too expensive, according to JBC.

However, as OPEC+ rolls back historic curbs and return more supplies to the market, refiners tailored to process heavy-sour crudes will revert to the more familiar feedstock, reducing their purchases of fuel oil.