亞洲及歐洲制造業(yè)平穩(wěn)復(fù)蘇支撐油價

據(jù)8月4日Arab News報道，周一，由于全球新冠肺炎病例不斷增加，以及歐佩克及其盟友削減減產(chǎn)規(guī)模的預(yù)期引發(fā)供應(yīng)過剩擔(dān)憂，而歐洲和亞洲的制造業(yè)利好數(shù)據(jù)抵消了這些負(fù)面影響，石油價格趨穩(wěn)。

布倫特原油價格上漲5美分，漲幅為0.1%，至每桶43.57美元，而美國西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油價格上漲6美分，漲幅為0.1%，至每桶40.33美元。過去一個月，布倫特原油價格一直在每桶41美元至近45美元之間波動。

荷蘭國際集團(tuán)(ING)大宗商品策略主管沃倫?帕特森(Warren Patterson)表示:“石油繼續(xù)在令人難以置信的區(qū)間波動內(nèi)進(jìn)行交易。投機(jī)者似乎對需求復(fù)蘇越來越擔(dān)憂，今年下半年，需求復(fù)蘇的過程比市場預(yù)期的要緩慢得多?！?/span>

冠狀病毒病例在美國繼續(xù)攀升，在全球范圍內(nèi)已達(dá)到近1800萬，有更多的國家實(shí)施新的限制措施或擴(kuò)大現(xiàn)有的限制措施，以努力控制疫情。盡管在病毒死灰復(fù)燃的情況下，燃料需求復(fù)蘇緩慢，但投資者仍擔(dān)心供應(yīng)過剩，因為歐佩克及其盟友準(zhǔn)備從8月開始放寬石油供應(yīng)削減規(guī)模。

法國巴黎銀行(BNP Paribas)商品研究主管Harry Tchilinguirian表示:"市場似乎開始擔(dān)心，歐佩克增產(chǎn)將與石油需求不均衡的復(fù)蘇同時出現(xiàn)。"

自5月以來，歐佩克+每日削減石油970萬桶。從本月開始，原油日減產(chǎn)量將正式降至770萬桶，直至12月。

一位消息人士周一表示，8月1日和2日，俄羅斯凝析油日產(chǎn)量從7月的937萬桶增加至980萬桶。

油價在交易日早些時候有所下跌，但在一項調(diào)查顯示上月歐元區(qū)制造業(yè)活動自2019年初以來首次出現(xiàn)擴(kuò)張后，油價得到了一些支撐。亞洲積極的制造業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)也幫助支撐了油價。

周五路透社的一項調(diào)查顯示，由于冠狀病毒引發(fā)的限制措施的逐步放松會提振需求，今年油價將緩慢攀升，不過第二波新冠病毒疫情可能會減緩復(fù)蘇步伐。

王佳晶 摘譯自 Arab News

原文如下：

Oil steady as virus fears counter positive factory data

Oil prices steadied on Monday as rising COVID-19 cases around the globe and oversupply worries fueled by the prospect of OPEC and its allies winding back output cuts were offset by positive industry data in Europe and Asia.

Brent crude rose 5 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $43.57 a barrel by while US West Texas Intermediate crude gained 6 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $40.33.

Over the past month, Brent has been trading in a range between $41 and almost $45.

“Oil continues to trade in an incredibly rangebound manner,” said Warren Patterson, ING’s head of commodities strategy.

“Speculators appear to be getting more nervous about the demand recovery, with the path much more gradual than market expectations coming into the second half of the year.”

Coronavirus cases have continued to climb in the United States and have reached almost 18 million globally, with more countries imposing new restrictions or extending existing curbs in an effort to control the pandemic. While fuel demand recovers slowly in the face of the resurgence of the virus, investors are also worried about oversupply as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, prepare to ease oil supply cuts from August.

“Concerns appear to be developing that a rise in OPEC+ production will coincide with uneven recovery in oil demand due to localized setbacks following secondary waves of COVID outbreaks,” said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity research at BNP Paribas.

OPEC+ members have been cutting output since May by 9.7 million barrels per day (bpd). From this month cuts will officially taper to 7.7 million bpd until December.

Russian oil and gas condensate output increased to 9.8 million bpd over Aug. 1-2, from 9.37 million bpd in July, a source familiar with data said on Monday.

Oil prices fell earlier in the session but found some support after a survey showed manufacturing activity across the eurozone expanded last month for the first time since early 2019.

Positive manufacturing data in Asia also helped to support oil prices.

A Reuters poll on Friday indicated that oil is set for a slow crawl upwards this year as the gradual easing of coronavirus-led restrictions buoys demand, though a second COVID-19 wave could slow the pace of a recovery.