沙特可能會被迫再次降低油價(jià)

據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)8月2日報(bào)道，在原油價(jià)格連續(xù)三個(gè)月上漲后，外界普遍預(yù)期世界最大的石油出口國沙特阿拉伯將首次下調(diào)其官方售價(jià)(OSPs)，這是自O(shè)PEC+集團(tuán)開始創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的減產(chǎn)以支撐市場和價(jià)格以應(yīng)對需求銳減以來的首次下調(diào)。

亞洲的煉油商和貿(mào)易商普遍預(yù)計(jì)，沙特石油巨頭阿美(Aramco)將下調(diào)9月份銷往亞洲的原油價(jià)格，由于石油需求復(fù)蘇步履蹣跚，壓低了煉油利潤率，削弱了中東石油基準(zhǔn)，海灣地區(qū)的石油生產(chǎn)商據(jù)此為亞洲定價(jià)。

據(jù)路透社(Reuters)對亞洲五家煉油廠的調(diào)查，業(yè)內(nèi)預(yù)計(jì)沙特將把9月份出口到亞洲的旗艦阿拉伯輕質(zhì)原油的價(jià)格平均每桶下調(diào)0.61美元。

彭博(Bloomberg)對8家亞洲交易商和煉油商的調(diào)查也顯示出類似的預(yù)期，預(yù)測每桶下調(diào)0.48美元。

這意味著9月份銷往亞洲的沙特阿拉伯輕質(zhì)原油的裝載價(jià)格可能較迪拜/阿曼基準(zhǔn)價(jià)格高出每桶0.72美元，低于8月裝載的每桶1.20美元的溢價(jià)。沙特石油公司7月初在三個(gè)月內(nèi)第三次上調(diào)原油價(jià)格時(shí)宣布的8月裝載價(jià)。

雖然沙特在過去三個(gè)月的價(jià)格上漲標(biāo)志著石油需求復(fù)蘇，中東迪拜/阿曼基準(zhǔn)隨著歐佩克削減后供應(yīng)的收緊而加強(qiáng)，但沙特價(jià)格下跌的預(yù)期是一個(gè)跡象，表明需求復(fù)蘇復(fù)蘇步履蹣跚，拖累中東基準(zhǔn)和煉油利潤率下降。

郝芬 譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Saudi Arabia May Be Forced To Cut Oil Prices Once Again

After three consecutive months of raising its crude oil prices, the world’s largest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, is widely expected to make the first cut to its official selling prices (OSPs) since the OPEC+ group started their record production cuts to prop up the market and prices amid crashing demand. Oil refiners and traders in Asia largely expect the Saudi oil giant Aramco to cut the price of its crude oil going to Asia in September as faltering oil demand recovery is depressing refining margins and weakening the Middle East oil benchmarks against which the producers in the Gulf set their prices for Asia.

According to a Reuters survey of five Asian refiners, the industry expects Saudi Arabia to cut the price of its flagship Arab Light crude grade to Asia for September by an average of US$0.61 per barrel.

A Bloomberg survey of eight Asian traders and refiners showed similar expectations, with a median forecast of a cut of US$0.48 a barrel.

This would mean that Saudi crude Arab Light loading for Asia in September could be priced at a premium of US$0.72 a barrel over the Dubai/Oman benchmark, down from the premium of US$1.20 per barrel for the August loadings, which Saudi Aramco announced in early July in the third hike of its crude prices in three months.

While the Saudi price hikes in the past three months signaled oil demand recovering and Middle East Dubai/Oman benchmarks strengthening as supply grew tighter after the OPEC+ cuts, the expectations of lower Saudi prices going forward is a sign that demand recovery is stumbling and dragging the Middle East benchmarks and refining margins down.