在經(jīng)濟(jì)極度不穩(wěn)定之際 歐佩克+計(jì)劃增產(chǎn)

據(jù)彭博社8月1日?qǐng)?bào)道，從歐洲平靜的天空到美國(guó)大城市稀疏的交通，全球石油需求的復(fù)蘇在冠狀病毒的死灰復(fù)燃中步履蹣跚。這對(duì)歐佩克及其合作伙伴構(gòu)成了一個(gè)特別微妙的挑戰(zhàn)，它們計(jì)劃在下周恢復(fù)一些在疫情最嚴(yán)重時(shí)停止的部分原油產(chǎn)量。

盡管在成功提振油價(jià)后，歐佩克迫切希望增加石油銷售，但全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的反復(fù)意味著，額外供應(yīng)正處于一個(gè)脆弱的時(shí)刻，并可能導(dǎo)致市場(chǎng)再次走向低迷。

市場(chǎng)情報(bào)公司Kpler SAS的研究主管亞歷克斯?布斯(Alex Booth)表示:“就增產(chǎn)范圍而言，我們處于相當(dāng)微妙的平衡狀態(tài)。你必須對(duì)需求復(fù)蘇持相當(dāng)樂(lè)觀的看法，才能證明需求大幅增長(zhǎng)是合理的?！?/span>

以俄羅斯和沙特阿拉伯為首的歐佩克+聯(lián)盟，在春季需求驟減時(shí)，創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄地減產(chǎn)970萬(wàn)桶日產(chǎn)量，約占全球供應(yīng)量的10%。該組織打算在下個(gè)月重新開(kāi)始生產(chǎn)約150萬(wàn)桶/天的石油。

從理論上講，由23個(gè)國(guó)家組成的聯(lián)盟稍微打開(kāi)一點(diǎn)“水龍頭”是合理的。國(guó)際原油價(jià)格從4月底的低點(diǎn)上漲了近兩倍，布倫特原油期貨價(jià)格升至每桶43美元。這為依賴能源銷售為政府支出融資的國(guó)家以及?？松梨?Exxon Mobil Corp .)和英國(guó)石油(BP Plc.)等公司提供了一條救生索。

總部位于奧斯陸的咨詢公司Rystad Energy 的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，全球石油市場(chǎng)在經(jīng)歷了數(shù)月的過(guò)剩之后，已轉(zhuǎn)向供應(yīng)不足，7月份的日需求量比供給量高出約200萬(wàn)桶。這在一定程度上減少了今年上半年積壓的庫(kù)存。

總部位于巴黎的國(guó)際能源署(IEA）表示，即便歐佩克+恢復(fù)生產(chǎn)，本季度的庫(kù)存降幅可能會(huì)是第二季度的兩倍，平均為440萬(wàn)桶/天。

然而，有跡象表明，市場(chǎng)趨緊的勢(shì)頭正開(kāi)始減弱。國(guó)際能源署總干事法提赫?比羅爾(Fatih Birol)在接受采訪時(shí)表示:“市場(chǎng)正在逐漸復(fù)蘇，但存在兩大不確定因素。一個(gè)是全球經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的情況，以及一些關(guān)鍵領(lǐng)域的情況。第二個(gè)問(wèn)題是我們是否會(huì)看到第二波冠狀病毒疫情?！?/span>

今年第二季度，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)遭遇了至少自上世紀(jì)40年代以來(lái)最嚴(yán)重的衰退，死亡人數(shù)已達(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的15萬(wàn)人。盡管夏季高峰即將來(lái)臨，汽油需求仍遠(yuǎn)低于平均水平，而TomTom Traffic Index的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，洛杉磯和邁阿密等城市的道路交通量還不到大流行前水平的一半。

在亞洲，成功抑制了第一波感染的國(guó)家，正在努力控制新的爆發(fā)。所有這些都使得石油庫(kù)存膨脹。世界上最大的獨(dú)立石油儲(chǔ)存公司，鹿特丹的Royal Vopak NV表示，它的可用空間幾乎耗盡。Rystad預(yù)計(jì)，下個(gè)月的日產(chǎn)量將比需求多70萬(wàn)桶，9月份將比需求多200萬(wàn)桶。

值得注意的是，價(jià)格也隨之萎靡不振。自4月底以來(lái)上漲逾一倍的布倫特原油期貨價(jià)格已失去上漲動(dòng)力，這一國(guó)際基準(zhǔn)原油價(jià)格停留在每桶40美元附近。咨詢公司石油市場(chǎng)主管Bjornar Tonhaugen表示:“歐佩克增加產(chǎn)量的嘗試可能適得其反，因?yàn)榫褪托枨蠖?，我們還遠(yuǎn)未脫離困境。未來(lái)3到4個(gè)月，供需平衡似乎將朝著微小供應(yīng)過(guò)剩的方向發(fā)展?！?/span>

咨詢公司JBC Energy GmbH在一份報(bào)告中稱，今年7月，歐佩克+日產(chǎn)原油2330萬(wàn)桶，約占全球需求的四分之一。

王佳晶 摘譯自 彭博社

原文如下：

Opec+ is set to pump more oil just as recovery teeters

From quiet skies over Europe to sparse traffic in America’s biggest cities, a recovery in global oil demand is faltering amid the resurgence in coronavirus.

That poses a particularly delicate challenge for Opec and its partners, who next week plan to resume some of the crude output halted during the depths of the pandemic.

While the alliance is eager to ramp up oil sales after successfully reviving prices, the relapse in the world economy means that extra supply is arriving at a fragile moment, and could send the market lower again.

“We’re in quite a finely balanced place in terms of the scope to increase production,” said Alex Booth, head of research at market intelligence firm Kpler SAS. “You have to have quite a bullish view on the demand recovery to be able to justify any significant increase.”

The Opec+ alliance – led by Russia and Saudi Arabia – took a record 9.7mn barrels of daily output, or roughly 10% of global supply, offline when demand plunged over the spring. They intend to restart about 1.5mn barrels next month.

In theory, it’s reasonable for the 23-nation coalition to open the taps a little.

Their stringent cuts have almost tripled international crude prices from the lows struck in late April, lifting Brent crude futures to $43 a barrel. That’s thrown a lifeline to countries reliant on energy sales to finance government spending, and companies like Exxon Mobil Corp and BP Plc.

Global oil markets have swung into deficit after months of surplus, with demand exceeding supply in July by about 2mn barrels a day, according to Rystad Energy A/S, a consultant based in Oslo. That’s paring some of the inventory glut amassed during the first half of the year.

The inventory decline for the quarter as a whole could be twice as steep, averaging 4.4mn barrels a day, even if Opec+ revives production, according to the International Energy Agency in Paris.

Yet there are signs the tightening of the market is beginning to slacken.

“The markets are gradually recovering, but there are two major uncertainties,” Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director, said in an interview. “One is the shape of the economic recovery globally, and in some of the key areas. And the second one is whether or not we are going to see a second wave of coronavirus.”

The death toll has reached a record 150,000 in the US, where the economy suffered its sharpest downturn since at least the 1940s in the second quarter.

Gasoline demand remains well-below average even as the summer peak approaches, while data from TomTom Traffic Index show that road traffic in cities such as Los Angeles and Miami is less than half pre-pandemic levels.

In Asia, countries that successfully suppressed the first wave of infections, such as Hong Kong, are struggling to contain new outbreaks. All of which is keeping inventories bloated. The world’s largest independent oil storage company, Rotterdam-based Royal Vopak NV, says that it’s almost run out of available space. Rystad predicts supply will exceed demand by 700,000 barrels a day next month, and by 2mn a day in September.

Prices are wilting in response. The rally that more than doubled Brent futures since late April has lost momentum, leaving the international benchmark stuck near $40 a barrel. A discount on early deliveries, which Opec sought to eliminate, has only deepened.

“Opec’s experiment to increase production could backfire as we are still nowhere near out of the woods yet in terms of oil demand,” said Bjornar Tonhaugen, the consultant’s head of oil markets. “The balances look to be heading towards a mini supply glut for the next three to four months.”

In July, the organisation pumped 23.3mn barrels of crude a day, equivalent to about a quarter of global demand, consultants JBC Energy GmbH in Vienna said in a report.