石油供應增長預期使油價下跌

據(jù)7月27日Rigzone報道，油價在上周上漲后小幅下跌，原因是投資者考慮到，在美元走軟的情況下，石油供應會增加，加上美國的疫情有所緩解。

紐約期貨交易所期貨價格在上周上漲1.7%后，已跌至每桶41美元。一些證據(jù)表明，過去幾周，美國的疫情可能開始緩解。在許多疫情最嚴重的州，包括佛羅里達州、加利福尼亞州和德克薩斯州，報告的病例和死亡人數(shù)都有所下降，死亡人數(shù)4天來首次下降到1000人以下。

自6月初以來，原油價格一直在接近每桶40美元的窄幅區(qū)間內(nèi)交易。由于許多國家努力控制疫情，原油價格從4月份的低點迅速反彈，但勢頭逐漸減弱。美元的下跌也在本月支撐了油價，盡管投資者正準備迎接歐佩克從8月開始放松產(chǎn)量限制的新供應。

新加坡Vanda Insights創(chuàng)始人Vandana Hari表示，油價之所以沒有向下修正，主要是因為美元正在相當劇烈地持續(xù)走軟，石油市場仍完全被疫情需求破壞情況和需求復蘇情況的影響所牽制。

紐約商交所9月份交割的西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油價格截至倫敦時間上午7點41分下跌0.6%，至每桶41.05美元，上周五收盤上漲0.5%。歐洲期貨交易所，布倫特原油9月份結(jié)算價下跌0.6%，至每桶43.08美元，上周上漲0.5%。

這一全球原油基準價格的短期走勢正進一步轉(zhuǎn)向溢價，這表明市場對供應過剩的擔憂正在加劇。期貨溢價指的是近期合約價格低于遠期合約價格的市場結(jié)構(gòu)。9月份交割的布倫特原油期貨價格比10月份的低44美分/桶，而一周前的價格比10月份的低18美分/桶。

還有證據(jù)表明，北美的原油生產(chǎn)可能開始復蘇。在修正了熱帶風暴克里斯托瓦爾（Cristobal）的影響后，截至7月17日當周，美國石油產(chǎn)量首次上升。而貝克休斯公司（Baker Hughes Co.）周五公布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，美國油田4個月來首次擴大鉆探量。

王佳晶 摘譯自 Rigzone

原文如下：

Oil Down as Investors Weigh Key Points

Oil edged lower after a weekly gain as investors weighed worsening relations between Washington and Beijing and the prospect of more supply against a weakening dollar and signs the virus is easing in the U.S.

Futures in New York fell toward $41 a barrel after rising 1.7% last week. There was some evidence, however, that the surge in the pandemic over the past few weeks in the U.S. could be starting to ease. Reported cases and fatalities fell in many of the hardest-hit states including Florida, California and Texas and the death toll dipped under 1,000 for the first time in four days.

Crude has been trading in a tight range near $40 a barrel since early June after its rapid recovery from lows in April petered out as many countries struggled to bring the virus under control. A drop in the dollar has also supported prices this month, although investors are bracing for fresh supply from the OPEC+ alliance when it relaxes its output curbs from August.

Oil has resisted a downward correction mainly due to “quite a sharp and sustained weakening in the U.S. dollar,” said Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights in Singapore. Despite rising political tensions, the oil market is still “entirely consumed by figuring out the impact of the coronavirus demand destruction and demand recovery,” she said.

West Texas Intermediate for September delivery fell 0.6% to $41.05 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange as of 7.41 a.m. in Londo after closing up 0.5% on Friday.

Brent for September settlement declined 0.6% to $43.08 on the ICE Futures Europe exchange following an 0.5% advance last week.

The prompt timespread for the global crude benchmark is moving deeper into contango -- a market structure where near-dated contracts are cheaper than later-dated ones -- signaling concerns about over-supply are increasing. Brent futures for September delivery were 44 cents a barrel cheaper than those for October, compared with an 18 cent discount a week ago.

There is also evidence North American crude production may be starting to recover. U.S. output rose for the first time since March in the week through July 17 after correcting for the impact of Tropical Storm Cristobal, which tore through the Gulf of Mexico in June, while Baker Hughes Co. data released Friday showed the first expansion in drilling in American fields in four months.