今明兩年全球風能潤滑油市場需求將下滑

據(jù)《亞洲潤滑油周刊》7月22日消息，全球咨詢和研究公司克萊恩公司在最近的一次網(wǎng)絡(luò)研討會上表示，在當前的經(jīng)濟環(huán)境下，全球?qū)︼L能潤滑油的需求可能會出現(xiàn)減速，但在隨后幾年應(yīng)該會出現(xiàn)反彈。全球風能潤滑油的關(guān)鍵市場仍是中國，預計未來5年中國風力發(fā)電機新增裝機容量將占到全球裝機容量的近一半。

克萊恩公司對風能潤滑油需求前景的預測，無論是樂觀還是悲觀的預測，都認為該市場將受到疫情導致的經(jīng)濟收縮的影響。克萊恩公司能源實踐業(yè)務(wù)項目負責人加布里埃爾.塔萊（Gabriel Tarle）表示：“幾乎所有假設(shè)場景中，2021年前全球風能潤滑油消費都將下降，不過此后幾年將出現(xiàn)V型復蘇。”

克萊恩公司估計，2019年全球風能潤滑油需求約為4萬至5萬噸，價值4億至5億美元，總風電裝機容量達到650千兆瓦。塔萊表示：“盡管風力發(fā)電機市場只占潤滑油總需求的一小部分，但由于其快速增長和高合成潤滑油滲透率，它是一個重要的細分市場。”

張春曉 摘譯自 《亞洲潤滑油周刊》

原文如下：

Slump Expected for Wind Energy Lubes

Global lubricant demand for wind energy is likely to hit a speed bump in the current economic climate but should rebound in subsequent years, an industry consultant said in a recent webinar. A key market remains China, which is expected to account for nearly half of all new wind turbine capacity over the next five years.

Kline & Co.’s projected outlook for lubricant demand in wind energy from anticipates that the market will be hurt by the economic contraction resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic under both optimistic and pessimistic projections. “Almost all scenarios suppose a downfall, a slump in consumption for lubricants used in wind energy by 2021, followed by a sharp ‘V’ recovery for the next few years,” Gabriel Tarle, a project lead in Kline’s energy practice said during a webinar.

The company estimated global demand for lubricants in wind energy reached about 40,000 to 50,000 metric tons in 2019, valued at $400 million to $500 million, as total installed wind energy capacity topped 650 gigawatts. “Even though it’s a small fraction of total lubricants demand, wind turbines are an important niche due to their rapid growth and high synthetic penetration,” Tarle said.