今明兩年全球風(fēng)能潤(rùn)滑油市場(chǎng)需求將下滑

據(jù)《亞洲潤(rùn)滑油周刊》7月22日消息，全球咨詢和研究公司克萊恩公司在最近的一次網(wǎng)絡(luò)研討會(huì)上表示，在當(dāng)前的經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境下，全球?qū)︼L(fēng)能潤(rùn)滑油的需求可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)減速，但在隨后幾年應(yīng)該會(huì)出現(xiàn)反彈。全球風(fēng)能潤(rùn)滑油的關(guān)鍵市場(chǎng)仍是中國(guó)，預(yù)計(jì)未來(lái)5年中國(guó)風(fēng)力發(fā)電機(jī)新增裝機(jī)容量將占到全球裝機(jī)容量的近一半。

克萊恩公司對(duì)風(fēng)能潤(rùn)滑油需求前景的預(yù)測(cè)，無(wú)論是樂觀還是悲觀的預(yù)測(cè)，都認(rèn)為該市場(chǎng)將受到疫情導(dǎo)致的經(jīng)濟(jì)收縮的影響。克萊恩公司能源實(shí)踐業(yè)務(wù)項(xiàng)目負(fù)責(zé)人加布里埃爾.塔萊（Gabriel Tarle）表示：“幾乎所有假設(shè)場(chǎng)景中，2021年前全球風(fēng)能潤(rùn)滑油消費(fèi)都將下降，不過此后幾年將出現(xiàn)V型復(fù)蘇。”

克萊恩公司估計(jì)，2019年全球風(fēng)能潤(rùn)滑油需求約為4萬(wàn)至5萬(wàn)噸，價(jià)值4億至5億美元，總風(fēng)電裝機(jī)容量達(dá)到650千兆瓦。塔萊表示：“盡管風(fēng)力發(fā)電機(jī)市場(chǎng)只占潤(rùn)滑油總需求的一小部分，但由于其快速增長(zhǎng)和高合成潤(rùn)滑油滲透率，它是一個(gè)重要的細(xì)分市場(chǎng)?！?/span>

張春曉 摘譯自 《亞洲潤(rùn)滑油周刊》

原文如下：

Slump Expected for Wind Energy Lubes

Global lubricant demand for wind energy is likely to hit a speed bump in the current economic climate but should rebound in subsequent years, an industry consultant said in a recent webinar. A key market remains China, which is expected to account for nearly half of all new wind turbine capacity over the next five years.

Kline & Co.’s projected outlook for lubricant demand in wind energy from anticipates that the market will be hurt by the economic contraction resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic under both optimistic and pessimistic projections. “Almost all scenarios suppose a downfall, a slump in consumption for lubricants used in wind energy by 2021, followed by a sharp ‘V’ recovery for the next few years,” Gabriel Tarle, a project lead in Kline’s energy practice said during a webinar.

The company estimated global demand for lubricants in wind energy reached about 40,000 to 50,000 metric tons in 2019, valued at $400 million to $500 million, as total installed wind energy capacity topped 650 gigawatts. “Even though it’s a small fraction of total lubricants demand, wind turbines are an important niche due to their rapid growth and high synthetic penetration,” Tarle said.