墨西哥將推出全球最大的石油對(duì)沖基金

據(jù)7月25日Trend報(bào)道，墨西哥已要求華爾街主要銀行提交其龐大石油對(duì)沖計(jì)劃的報(bào)價(jià)，而原油期權(quán)交易本周在大宗交易前有所增加。

知情人士稱(chēng)，財(cái)政部已要求銀行提供報(bào)價(jià)，暗示執(zhí)行對(duì)沖的過(guò)程已經(jīng)開(kāi)始。外交部沒(méi)有立即對(duì)此發(fā)表評(píng)論。

墨西哥每年購(gòu)買(mǎi)多達(dá)10億美元的金融合同，以保護(hù)其石油收入，這是世界上最大的石油對(duì)沖項(xiàng)目。參與交易雙方的銀行家和官員預(yù)計(jì)，今年對(duì)沖規(guī)模將縮小，因?yàn)橛糜诒Ｗo(hù)石油利潤(rùn)的期權(quán)比去年更為昂貴。

今年早些時(shí)候，石油市場(chǎng)崩盤(pán)，美國(guó)原油基準(zhǔn)價(jià)格在4月份跌至每桶負(fù)40美元。上周五，它的交易價(jià)在43美元左右。

到位的對(duì)沖措施保護(hù)了墨西哥免受股市暴跌的沖擊。據(jù)墨西哥財(cái)政部稱(chēng)，2020年的對(duì)沖是在2019年安排的，當(dāng)時(shí)的價(jià)格是每桶49美元。墨西哥政府今年4月說(shuō)，對(duì)沖將產(chǎn)生約1500億比索(約合60億美元)的收益。

由于今年的波動(dòng)性更高，預(yù)計(jì)墨西哥將為2021年的保單支付更多費(fèi)用，但承保范圍將減少。不過(guò)，消息人士稱(chēng)，預(yù)計(jì)該公司將繼續(xù)推進(jìn)，以避免進(jìn)一步損害其在國(guó)際投資者心目中的財(cái)務(wù)地位。該國(guó)的信用評(píng)級(jí)近幾個(gè)月來(lái)已經(jīng)被下調(diào)，而且有進(jìn)一步下調(diào)的危險(xiǎn)。

市場(chǎng)消息人士稱(chēng)，歐洲和美國(guó)的交易商和銀行本周一直是隱含波動(dòng)率期權(quán)的積極買(mǎi)家。這些消息人士說(shuō)，這是一個(gè)信號(hào)，表明交易商正在為財(cái)政部購(gòu)買(mǎi)債券后的大規(guī)模購(gòu)買(mǎi)做準(zhǔn)備。

由于雙方都試圖在一項(xiàng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)激烈的交易中為銀行爭(zhēng)取到最佳條款，因此談判非常秘密，參與者也很少。

就2020年對(duì)沖而言，墨西哥購(gòu)買(mǎi)的期權(quán)有三分之二與國(guó)際布倫特原油基準(zhǔn)指數(shù)掛鉤，而不是墨西哥主要生產(chǎn)的瑪雅石油。

目前布倫特原油2021年的平均價(jià)格約為每桶46美元，為3月初以來(lái)的最高水平。

鄒勤 摘譯自 Trend

原文如下：

Mexico moves to launch world's largest oil hedge

Mexico has asked top Wall Street banks to submit quotes for its giant oil hedging program, sources familiar with the matter said on Friday, while trading in crude oil options has increased this week ahead of the megadeal, Trend reports citing Reuters.

The finance ministry has asked banks for price quotes, one source with direct knowledge of the matter said, signaling the beginning of the process to execute the hedge. The ministry was not immediately available for comment.

Every year, Mexico buys as much as $1 billion in financial contracts, the world’s largest oil hedge program, to protect its oil revenues. Bankers and officials on both sides of the deal expect a smaller hedge this year because the options used to protect oil profits are more expensive than last year.

The oil market crashed earlier this year, with the U.S. crude benchmark falling to negative-$40 a barrel in April. It was trading around $43 on Friday.

Having the hedge in place protected Mexico from the plunge. The 2020 hedge, arranged in 2019, was completed at $49 a barrel, according to the country’s finance ministry, and Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said in April that the hedge would yield roughly 150 billion pesos ($6 billion).

Because volatility is higher this year, Mexico is expected to pay more for less coverage for the insurance policy for 2021. However, it is expected to go ahead to avoid further damaging its financial standing with international investors, sources have said. The country’s credit rating has been cut in recent months and is in danger of additional declines.

Trade shops and banks based in Europe and the United States have been active buyers of implied volatility options this week, market sources said. That is a signal that dealers are preparing for the extensive buying that comes with the finance ministry’s purchases, those sources said.

Negotiations are very secretive and limited to few participants as both sides attempt to secure the best terms in a highly competitive deal for banks.

For the 2020 hedge, sources estimated two-thirds of the options Mexico bought were indexed to the international Brent crude benchmark, shifting away from the Maya oil Mexico mainly produces.

Average Brent crude prices for 2021 are currently at about $46 a barrel, their highest since early March.