巴克萊預(yù)計(jì)布倫特原油明年將達(dá)到53美元/桶

據(jù)油氣新聞網(wǎng)7月23日倫敦報(bào)道，英國(guó)跨國(guó)投資銀行和金融服務(wù)公司巴克萊（Barclays）在其最新的大宗商品研究報(bào)告中稱，預(yù)計(jì)布倫特原油和西德克薩斯中質(zhì)油的價(jià)格2021年將分別達(dá)到每桶53美元和50美元。

巴克萊在報(bào)告中補(bǔ)充道，我們建議在2021年7月使用35美元/桶和45美元/桶的布倫特期權(quán)進(jìn)行逆差價(jià)交易。

該報(bào)告稱，油價(jià)已經(jīng)從今年第二季度初的低點(diǎn)大幅反彈，但最近布倫特原油價(jià)格在40-45美元/桶區(qū)間內(nèi)鞏固，略低于有利于美國(guó)致密油活動(dòng)的“窄幅波動(dòng)”。

需求的部分回升以及自愿性和非自愿性的供給調(diào)整，以及美元疲軟的支持，使得供需重新平衡的速度超過(guò)了預(yù)期，從而支持了這一反彈。

報(bào)告稱，然而，在我們看來(lái)，就基本面而言，我們還沒(méi)有達(dá)到下一輪上漲的水平。如果需求復(fù)蘇進(jìn)一步放緩，特別是在美國(guó)，短期內(nèi)可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)一些修正。

郝芬 譯自 油氣新聞網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Brent price forecast to hit $53 in 2021: Barclays

Brent and WTI prices are expected to reach $53 per barrel (/b) and $50/b respectively in 2021, said Barclays, a British multinational investment bank and financial services company in its latest Commodities Research report.

“We recommend a call backspread trade with $35/b and $45/b Brent July 2021 options,” Barclays added in the report.

Oil prices have bounced back sharply from their lows in the early second quarter (Q2) of the year but recently have been consolidating in the $40-45/b range for the Brent, just shy of the ‘tight range’ conducive for higher US tight oil activity, the report said.

The rally is supported by a faster-than-expected rebalancing of supply and demand, aided by a partial recovery in demand and voluntary and involuntary supply adjustments, bolstered by a weaker trade-weighted USD.

“However, we are not there yet in terms of fundamentals for the next leg higher, in our view, and could potentially see some correction over the near term if demand recovery slows further, especially in the US,” the report said.