印度深水天然氣產(chǎn)量受到LNG現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格低迷壓力

據(jù)離岸工程網(wǎng)站7月21日消息 伍德麥肯茲表示，印度新的深水天然氣生產(chǎn)可能受到液化天然氣現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格低迷的壓力。

到2023年，深水天然氣預(yù)計(jì)將驅(qū)動(dòng)印度天然氣產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)超過(guò)10億立方英尺/天。然而，迄今為止，這一供應(yīng)量中只有15%（2億立方英尺/天）簽約。由于市場(chǎng)需求受Covid-19的影響，且預(yù)計(jì)最低現(xiàn)貨液化天然氣價(jià)格將持續(xù)至2022年，這些深水量的完全商業(yè)化面臨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

伍德麥肯茲首席分析師Alay Patel表示：“來(lái)自深水油田的天然氣將在安得拉邦和更大的古吉拉特邦/馬哈拉施特拉邦出售，在那里將直接與現(xiàn)貨液化天然氣競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。生產(chǎn)商的關(guān)鍵時(shí)期將是2020/2021年，屆時(shí)現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格將保持低位。”

“我們估計(jì)，2022年約35%的未簽約量面臨被現(xiàn)貨液化天然氣替代的更高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。”

東部的安得拉邦和特蘭加納州無(wú)法獲得液化天然氣，區(qū)域管網(wǎng)主要由印度石油天然氣公司和位于卡基納達(dá)港的信實(shí)油田供應(yīng)。由于沒(méi)有來(lái)自現(xiàn)貨液化天然氣的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，賣(mài)方只需確保天然氣價(jià)格對(duì)能夠吸收增量的工業(yè)或電力消費(fèi)者可行。

吳恒磊 編譯自 離岸工程

原文如下：

India's Deepwater Gas Output Pressured by Low Spot LNG Prices

India’s new deepwater gas production could be under pressure from low spot LNG prices, says Wood Mackenzie.

Deepwater is expected to drive India’s gas production growth, adding over 1 billion cubic foot per day (bcfd) of new supply by 2023. However, only 15% or 200 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd) of this supply has been contracted to date. With market demand impacted by Covid-19, and low spot LNG prices expected to persist at least until 2022, the full commercialization of these deepwater volumes is at risk.

Wood Mackenzie principal analyst Alay Patel said: “Gas from the deepwater fields will be sold in Andhra Pradesh and the much larger Gujarat/Maharashtra where it will compete against spot LNG directly. The critical period for producers will be the 2020/2021 period when spot prices are set to remain low.

“We estimate that around 35% of uncontracted volumes in 2022 are at a higher risk of being replaced by spot LNG.”

The eastern states of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana do not have access to LNG, with the regional pipeline network supplied primarily by ONGC and Reliance’s fields at Kakinada port. With no competition from spot LNG, sellers only need to ensure that gas prices are viable for industrial or power consumers who can absorb incremental volumes.