ESAI:明年美國(guó)原油管道輸送量將減少270萬(wàn)桶/天

據(jù)Oil & Gas Journal網(wǎng)站7月21日?qǐng)?bào)道 美國(guó)原定于2021年啟動(dòng)的管道項(xiàng)目正面臨來(lái)自不確定的需求前景、漫長(zhǎng)的法庭訴訟和監(jiān)管審查的巨大挑戰(zhàn)。雖然一些已經(jīng)在建的項(xiàng)目正在推進(jìn)，但根據(jù)ESAI能源的北美觀察報(bào)告，約270萬(wàn)桶/天的新管道項(xiàng)目將被推遲。

由于法律層面原因，達(dá)科他州57萬(wàn)桶/天的Access管道（DAPL）及其計(jì)劃擴(kuò)建受影響。報(bào)告稱，隨著其他輸油管道的滿負(fù)荷，DAPL的關(guān)閉將造成瓶頸，從而導(dǎo)致對(duì)鐵路的更多依賴和巴肯原油價(jià)格的走弱，這反過(guò)來(lái)又會(huì)對(duì)由于疫情的影響而關(guān)閉的生產(chǎn)造成不利影響。

在對(duì)延期項(xiàng)目的總結(jié)中，該報(bào)告顯示，盡管DAPL正面臨因環(huán)境許可而可能關(guān)閉的局面，但由于COVID-19導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況惡化，將向庫(kù)欣輸送更多巴克肯原油的35萬(wàn)桶/天的Liberty石油管道在3月被推遲。由于北達(dá)科他州管道外運(yùn)量不足，預(yù)計(jì)鐵路運(yùn)輸原油將增加約30-35萬(wàn)桶/天。該報(bào)告進(jìn)一步得出結(jié)論，部分減少的巴肯原油產(chǎn)量可能無(wú)法恢復(fù)，該盆地將在2020年減少約27萬(wàn)桶/天，2021年將再下降6.5萬(wàn)桶/天。

ESAI能源分析師Elisabeth Murphy表示：“達(dá)科他州準(zhǔn)入的不確定結(jié)果將對(duì)巴肯產(chǎn)生連鎖反應(yīng)，比如資本被轉(zhuǎn)移到其他更容易進(jìn)入市場(chǎng)的盆地。如果不增加鉆井平臺(tái)和壓裂人員的支出，巴肯油田將面臨更困難的時(shí)期，以抵消下滑，使產(chǎn)量恢復(fù)到2019年的水平。”

吳恒磊 編譯自 Oil & Gas Journal

原文如下：

ESAI: 2.7 million b/d US crude pipeline capacity delayed in 2021

Pipeline projects in the US that were slated for startup in 2021 are facing huge challenges from an uncertain demand outlook, lengthy court battles, and regulatory review. While some projects already under construction are moving forward, about 2.7 million b/d of new takeaway will be postponed, according to ESAI Energy’s North America Watch report.

The most noteworthy is the potential loss of the 570,000 b/d Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL) and its planned expansion due to legal hurdles. A shutdown DAPL will create bottlenecks as other pipelines fill up, resulting in more dependency on rail and weaker prices for Bakken crude, the report said. This in turn will adversely impact production that had already been shut in due to the impacts of COVID-19.

In its summation of postponed projects, the report shows that while DAPL is facing a potential shutdown due to environmental permitting, the 350,000 b/d Liberty pipeline that would deliver more Bakken crude to Cushing was deferred in March due to deteriorating economic conditions resulting from COVID-19. The lack of pipeline takeaway from North Dakota is expected to result in an increase in crude-by-rail of some 300,000–350,000 b/d. The report further concludes that some curtailed Bakken production may not be brought back, and the basin will decline by roughly 270,000 b/d on an annual basis in 2020 and by a further 65,000 b/d in 2021.

“An uncertain outcome for Dakota Access will have knock-on effects for the Bakken, such as capital being diverted to other basins that have better access to markets,” said Elisabeth Murphy, analyst at ESAI Energy. “Without spending on more rigs and frac crews, the Bakken will have a more difficult time offsetting decline and getting production back up to 2019 levels.”