美元走弱 油價上漲

據(jù)7月23日Oilfield Technology報道，由于美元走軟推動了石油市場，油價周四上漲，但由于疫情的消息和庫存增加的擔(dān)憂，油價漲幅仍然有限。

Rystad Energy石油市場主管比約爾納?通豪根(Bjornar Tonhaugen)就油價上漲發(fā)表了評論:“油價今天上午走高，市場最悲觀的信號可能是上周美國煉油廠產(chǎn)量的下降。在進(jìn)入煉油旺季之際，全球最大的原油消費(fèi)國對原油的實(shí)際需求連續(xù)第二周下降，東海岸和西海岸煉油廠領(lǐng)跌。此外，我們相信，新冠肺炎疫情可能會導(dǎo)致包括我們和各機(jī)構(gòu)在內(nèi)的主要市場觀察人士很快下調(diào)對需求增長的預(yù)測，特別是今年第四季度的需求預(yù)期。”

與此同時，忽視看跌指標(biāo)是油價走強(qiáng)的信號，但這種影響也是由美元疲軟造成的，美元疲軟通常會促進(jìn)工業(yè)用油的購買。然而，由匯率變動引起的價格變動不會產(chǎn)生持久的影響，與美元相關(guān)的收益預(yù)計(jì)將僅限于今天。

正如之前所提到的，其他指標(biāo)通常會指向油價走弱，在今天的購買狂潮之后，市場可能會發(fā)生轉(zhuǎn)向，當(dāng)然，美元進(jìn)一步貶值的情況除外。

另一方面，對于最重要的道路燃料需求的走勢，市場存在很多不確定性。隨著新冠肺炎病毒在美國和印度等關(guān)鍵市場的持續(xù)蔓延，汽油面臨嚴(yán)重風(fēng)險，而石油最近的上漲得益于汽油需求的增長。

通豪根補(bǔ)充道，這種價差引發(fā)了一個問題:目前的汽油需求還能維持多久?這還有待觀察，這也將是一個政策問題。如果再次實(shí)行封鎖，很遺憾地說，石油市場的形勢將變得更加嚴(yán)峻。

王佳晶 摘譯自 Oilfield Technology

原文如下：

Oil gains on currency effect

Oil prices rose on Thursday as a weaker dollar helped oil purchases, but gains remained limited amid Covid-19 infection news and inventory build concerns.

Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets, Bjornar Tonhaugen, has commented on the price rise: "Oil prices are higher this morning shrugging off discomforting news for US-China relations, a bearish US inventory report from yesterday and a fresh record new cases in India of 45 600.

Possibly the most bearish signal the market is shrugging off is the dip in US refinery throughput last week. The actual demand for crude oil from the world’s largest consumer, going into the peak of the refining season, dipped for the second week in a row led by the East and West Coast refineries.

Moreover, the trend for Covid-19 cases will likely result in downwards revisions in demand growth forecast from key market observers soon, including ourselves and the agencies, especially for 4Q20, we believe.

This may come back to haunt the bulls sooner rather than later as expectations are adjusted for the worse, which will naturally affect prices as we go forward.

In the meantime, ignoring bearish indicators is a signal of strength for the oil price, but an effect that is also caused by a weak dollar, which usually boosts purchases of oil for industrial use.

However, a price move caused by currency rate changes, does not have a lasting effect and the dollar-related gains are expected to be limited to today only.

As mentioned other indicators would normally point to a weakening of the oil price and the market may turn eyes there after today’s purchase spree, except of course if the dollar devaluates more.

In other news, there is plenty of uncertainty in the market about how the most important oil demand segment will move, that is road fuels. Gasoline, on whose demand rise oil has built its gains lately, is at serious risk as Covid-19 continues to expand in key markets such as the US and India.

The spread raises the question: How long will gasoline demand be able to hold it current levels? It remains to be seen and it will also be a matter of policy. If lockdowns come back, sorry to say, but things will look a bit grimmer for oil."