EIA: 2021年石油需求或?qū)⑦_(dá)到疫情前水平

據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)7月20日報(bào)道，美國能源情報(bào)署(EIA)周一表示，盡管近幾周能源消費(fèi)量有所上升，但到2021年8月，美國對石油和液體燃料的需求預(yù)計(jì)仍將低于2019年的平均水平。

由于各州正試圖遏制冠狀病毒的傳播，呆在家的要求和出行減少，對汽車汽油，餾分燃料油和噴氣燃料的總需求在3月和4月暴跌。 自4月份的低點(diǎn)以來，需求已經(jīng)增加，隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)活動的回暖，需求將在今年下半年繼續(xù)增長。 EIA估計(jì)，直到明年8月，總需求水平仍將落后于危機(jī)前的水平。

據(jù)美國政府?dāng)?shù)據(jù)顯示，4月美國液態(tài)燃料日均消費(fèi)量達(dá)到1,470萬桶，為上世紀(jì)80年代初以來的月度最低水平。

EIA本月早些時(shí)候稱，4月石油需求驟降，導(dǎo)致美國商業(yè)原油庫存創(chuàng)下1920年以來最大月度增幅。

從數(shù)量上看，今年燃料消耗量的大幅下降有近一半是由于汽油使用量減少。今年汽油日均需求量為830萬桶，較2019年減少100萬桶，降幅10%。隨著就業(yè)增加，明年汽油日消費(fèi)量將增至910萬桶，較2019年平均水準(zhǔn)低約2%。

根據(jù)EIA 7月份的《短期能源展望》(STEO)，美國今年的液體燃料日均消耗量將達(dá)到1830萬桶，比2019年減少210萬桶。

據(jù)EIA稱，明年美國液體燃料的日均消費(fèi)量將為1,990萬桶，仍低于2019年2,050萬桶。

郝芬 譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

EIA: Oil Demand To Hit Pre-COVID Levels In 2021

U.S. demand for petroleum and liquid fuels is expected to remain below the 2019 average from before the COVID-crisis until August 2021, despite the uptick in consumption in recent weeks, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Monday.

Total demand for motor gasoline, distillate fuel oil, and jet fuel crashed in March and April due to the stay-at-home orders and reduced travel as states were trying to curb the spread of the coronavirus. Demand has increased since the lows in April, and will continue to rise in the second half of this year as economic activity picks up. Yet, total demand levels will continue to trail the pre-crisis levels until August next year, the EIA has estimated.

In April, U.S. consumption of liquid fuels reached its all-time monthly low since the early 1980s at an average of 14.7 million barrels per day (bpd), according to the administration.

The oil demand crash in April, when most of America was under stay-at-home orders, resulted in the biggest monthly inventory jump in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories in data going back to 1920, the EIA said earlier this month.

In terms of volumes, nearly half of the plunge in fuel consumption in 2020 has come from low gasoline use. This year, gasoline demand is expected to average 8.3 million bpd, down by 1.0 million bpd – or 10 percent – from 2019. Next year, with rising employment, gasoline consumption is set to increase to 9.1 million bpd, or to be some 2 percent less than its 2019 average.

All liquid fuels consumption in the United States this year is set to average 18.3 million bpd in 2020, down by 2.1 million bpd from 2019, according to EIA’s July Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).

Next year, U.S. liquid fuels consumption will average 19.9 million bpd, still below the 2019 average of 20.5 million bpd, according to the EIA.