石油市場前景短期內(nèi)不太樂觀

據(jù)7月20日FXstreet報道，歐佩克+技術會議于本周舉行，會議決定在8月份繼續(xù)實施原計劃的減產(chǎn)措施。荷蘭合作銀行(Rabobank)經(jīng)濟學家認為，當前成品油價差疲弱，表明終端用戶燃料需求復蘇脆弱。

這一決定將為一個石油庫存已達到創(chuàng)紀錄水平的市場增加近200萬桶/天的原油供應，但由于該決定對市場來說并不意外，而且基本符合最近的公眾預期，因此價格反應甚微。令人驚訝的是,歐佩克+石油出口國認為,現(xiàn)在增加市場供應不會阻礙近期價格的上漲，但在供應額外增加,加上需求相對脆弱復蘇的情況下，很難確定不會對原油價格產(chǎn)生負面影響。且北半球的夏季出行季節(jié)已經(jīng)過去了一半，短期內(nèi)汽油消費前景不太樂觀。

由于基本面和市場定量壓力，平盤價和日歷價差的上行空間有限。隨著大量散戶投資者逃離市場，近幾個月來原油期貨（尤其是WTI）累積的過度投機‘多頭頭寸’被抹去，也在意料之中。

另一方面,荷蘭合作銀行預計原油價格將大幅下挫，因為相對于其他資產(chǎn)類別而言，石油仍具有吸引力，特別是考慮到金融市場的刺激沖洗，可以估計在可預見的未來，這一狀態(tài)仍將存在。預計今年年底油價將出現(xiàn)橫盤整理走勢。

王佳晶 摘譯自 FXstreet

原文如下：

Oil to slow down the reaction this year – Rabobank

The OPEC+ virtual technical meeting was held this week and resulted in a decision to move forward with the planned easing of the current supply cuts in August. Economists at Rabobank continue to view the current weakness in the refined product crack spreads as indicative of a fragile end-user fuel demand recovery.

“The decision will add close to 2mb/d of crude to an industry already dealing with record oil stocks but there was little price reaction given the announcement came as no surprise to the market and was mostly in line with recent public guidance. Surprisingly though, the group of oil exporting nations concluded that adding supply to the market now would not hinder the recent price strength but it's hard to see how that extra supply coupled with a relatively fragile demand recovery is not negative for crude oil prices, at least on the margin.”

“We continue to view the current weakness in refining margins as indicative of less than stellar end-user fuel demand and with half of the summer driving season behind us in the Northern hemisphere, the near-term outlook does not offer much upside with respect to gasoline consumption.”

“We continue to see limited upside to both flat price and calendar spreads as a result of fundamental and quantitative market pressures. As such, it would not surprise us to see a washout of the out-sized speculative ‘longs’ that have built up in crude oil futures in recent months and specifically in WTI as retail investors continue to flee the space in droves.”

“On the flip side, we still expect any major dips in crude to be bought as oil still looks attractive on a relative basis to other asset classes and especially given the amount of stimulus flushing through financial markets, a dynamic we expect to remain in place for the foreseeable future. Given this view, we expect sideways to lower oil price action for the balance of this year.”