石油市場仍然不穩(wěn)定

據(jù)7月17日Rigzone報(bào)道，投資銀行杰弗里斯（Jefferies）一份新的研究報(bào)告顯示，當(dāng)前石油市場仍不穩(wěn)定。該銀行認(rèn)為，近期內(nèi)，由于需求風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和歐佩克+放松減產(chǎn)，油價(jià)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)下行。并補(bǔ)充道，由于石油庫存較高，且閑置產(chǎn)能接近每天1100萬桶，布倫特原油價(jià)格在2021年下半年之前不太可能保持在每桶50美元以上。

但杰弗里斯強(qiáng)調(diào)，若油價(jià)跌破每桶40美元，預(yù)計(jì)歐佩克將減少市場供應(yīng)。盡管近期存在價(jià)格風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，但經(jīng)濟(jì)活動水平較低，美國是由產(chǎn)量將繼續(xù)下降。因此，該銀行將2020年下半年布倫特原油價(jià)格預(yù)期從每桶37美元上調(diào)至43美元。

杰弗里斯在報(bào)告中承認(rèn)，當(dāng)前宏觀環(huán)境“仍然困難”，但表示，布倫特原油價(jià)格就目前看來不太可能長期低于30美元/桶。

8月，歐佩克+將放寬自5月以來的近1000萬桶/天的減產(chǎn)幅度。然而，沙特能源部長、JMMC主席阿卜杜勒?阿齊茲?本?薩勒曼(Abdul Aziz Bin Salman)表示，進(jìn)入國際市場的額外供應(yīng)“將幾乎感覺不到”。

本月早些時(shí)候，Rystad Energy指出，第二波疫情可能導(dǎo)致2020年石油需求降至8650萬桶/天。Rystad目前對今年石油需求的預(yù)測是8900萬桶/天，而2019年的石油總需求約為9950萬桶/天。

洪偉立 摘譯自 Rigzone

原文如下：

Oil Market Fundamentals Remain Precarious

That’s according to a new research note from investment bank Jefferies, which was sent to Rigzone on Thursday.

Jefferies believes that, in the near term, oil price risk is skewed to the downside by Covid-19 demand risks and OPEC+ easing production cuts, the research note outlined. The company added in the note that very high inventories and spare capacity approaching 11 million barrels per day makes it unlikely that Brent can hold above $50 per barrel until the latter half of 2021.

Jefferies did however highlight that it expects OPEC+ will take incremental oil off the market if prices move below $40 per barrel and added that it expects

U.S. production declines to continue “given low activity levels”. As a result, the company raised its second half 2020 Brent forecast to $43 per barrel from $37 per barrel, “despite the near-term price risks”.

In the note, Jefferies conceded that the macro environment “remains difficult” but noted that a prolonged period of sub-$30 Brent “now seems unlikely”.

In August, the OPEC+ group is set to ease its production cuts from the near 10 million barrel per day (MMbpd) figure that has been in place since May. The additional supply reaching international markets “will be barely felt”, however, according to Saudi Arabia's Minister of Energy and Chairman of the JMMC, Abdul Aziz Bin Salman.

Earlier this month, Rystad Energy outlined that a second wave of the coronavirus could see oil demand drop to 86.5MMbpd in 2020. Rystad’s current base case estimate for oil demand this year is 89MMbpd. The company estimates that total oil demand in 2019 was approximately 99.5MMbpd.