EIA：加拿大石油產(chǎn)量降至2016年來最低水平

據(jù)世界管道7月17日?qǐng)?bào)道，2019年，加拿大是全球第四大石油和其他液體燃料生產(chǎn)國，但在2020年上半年，產(chǎn)量較2019年的平均550萬桶/天下降了20%。由于全球原油價(jià)格低迷、加拿大和美國對(duì)成品油的需求減少，加拿大的石油和其他液體燃料產(chǎn)量下降。2019年占加拿大原油產(chǎn)量80%以上的阿爾伯塔?。ˋlberta）繼續(xù)實(shí)施減產(chǎn)措施。

加拿大2019年的石油和其他液體產(chǎn)量與2018年持平。2018年末，加拿大西部精選原油價(jià)格處于歷史低位。阿爾伯塔省政府于2019年初實(shí)施減產(chǎn)，緩解原油庫存增加和出口管道外運(yùn)能力日益受到的限制。這些限制措施原計(jì)劃在2019年底取消，但在2019年10月，限制舉措延長至2020年底。

美國能源信息署（EIA）估計(jì)，加拿大的石油和其他液體燃料產(chǎn)量從2020年3月的560萬桶/天下降至4月的490萬桶/天，下降了70萬桶/天。這一降幅與2016年4月至5月期間的64萬桶/天的降幅相似，當(dāng)時(shí)麥克默里堡地區(qū)的山火肆虐迫使阿爾伯塔省的一些油砂項(xiàng)目暫時(shí)關(guān)閉。

在2020年7月的短期能源展望(STEO)中，EIA估計(jì)加拿大的產(chǎn)量在5月份又下降了56萬桶/天，降至440萬桶/天，為2016年中期以來的最低水平。EIA估計(jì)，由于加拿大和美國對(duì)石油產(chǎn)品的需求增加，加拿大6月份的石油產(chǎn)量略有增加。

加拿大5月份石油和其他液體燃料產(chǎn)量的下降幅度，大于歐佩克一些成員國石油和其他液體燃料總產(chǎn)量的下降幅度。加拿大的減產(chǎn)幅度也超過了10個(gè)自愿與歐佩克協(xié)調(diào)生產(chǎn)的國家。在非歐佩克產(chǎn)油國中，加拿大的產(chǎn)量降幅位居第三，僅次于俄羅斯和美國。

在7月份的STEO報(bào)告中，EIA預(yù)測，由于全球石油需求下降的持續(xù)影響，2020年剩余時(shí)間和2021年上半年，加拿大的產(chǎn)量將保持在低于2019年平均值的水平。EIA預(yù)測，2020年加拿大石油和其他液體燃料的平均產(chǎn)量為510萬桶/天，到2021年為550萬桶/天。

洪偉立 摘譯自 世界管道

原文如下：

EIA: Canada’s oil production drops to lowest level since 2016 wildfires

Canada was the world’s fourth-largest producer of petroleum and other liquids in 2019, but in the first half of 2020, Canada’s production declined 20% from its 2019 average of 5.5 million bpd. Canada’s production of petroleum and other liquids declined as a result of low global crude oil prices, reduced demand for crude oil for refined petroleum products in Canada and the United States, and continued production curtailments imposed by the government of Alberta – the province where more than 80% of Canada’s 2019 crude oil production was located.

Canada produced about the same amount of petroleum and other liquids in 2019 as it did in 2018. In late 2018, Western Canadian Select crude oil was trading at historically low prices. The government of Alberta imposed production curtailments in early 2019 to reduce associated bitumen production and to alleviate increasing crude oil inventories and growing constraints on export pipeline takeaway capacity. These restrictions were scheduled to be lifted at the end of 2019, but in October 2019, the restrictions were extended through the end of 2020.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that Canada’s production of petroleum and other liquids fell from 5.6 million bpd in March 2020 to 4.9 million bpd in April, down 700 000 bpd. This decline is similar to the 640 000 bpd decline from April to May 2016, when wildfires in the Fort McMurray area forced a temporary shutdown of some oil sands projects in Alberta.

In the July 2020 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA estimated that Canada’s production fell by an additional 560 000 bpd to 4.4 million bpd in May, the lowest production since mid-2016. EIA estimates Canada’s production increased slightly in June, as demand for petroleum products in Canada and United States also increased.

Canada’s decline in the production of petroleum and other liquids in May was greater than declines in total petroleum and other liquids production for some countries that are members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Canada also reduced production more than most of the 10 countries that voluntarily coordinate their production with OPEC (OPEC+). Among non-OPEC producers, Canada’s production declines were the third largest after Russia and the United States.

In the July STEO, EIA forecasts that Canada’s production will remain less than its 2019 average through the remaining months of 2020 and the first half of 2021 as lingering effects of lower global petroleum demand persist. EIA forecasts that Canada’s production of petroleum and other liquids will average 5.1 million bpd in 2020 and 5.5 million bpd in 2021.