歐佩克預(yù)計(jì)2021年原油需求將大幅增長(zhǎng)

據(jù)7月14日Rigzone消息：歐佩克預(yù)計(jì)，明年對(duì)其原油的需求將大幅反彈，超過(guò)疫情前的水平，因?yàn)榕c歐佩克競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的產(chǎn)油國(guó)正努力恢復(fù)產(chǎn)量。

根據(jù)一份月度報(bào)告顯示，石油輸出國(guó)組織(歐佩克)預(yù)測(cè)，到2021年其原油需求將激增25％，達(dá)到平均每天2980萬(wàn)桶，高于2019年的水平。

盡管上漲的部分原因是隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)恢復(fù)增長(zhǎng)，全球石油需求回升，但更大因素是歐佩克競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手的復(fù)產(chǎn)。報(bào)告顯示，在今年下滑7.4％之后，2021年美國(guó)的石油產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)將非常有限。

與此同時(shí)，歐佩克及其盟友正在減產(chǎn)，以消除因疫情造成的供過(guò)于求，并推高油價(jià)。該組織表示，今年6月承諾的減產(chǎn)已全部落實(shí)。

包括俄羅斯等非成員國(guó)在內(nèi)的歐佩克+聯(lián)盟預(yù)計(jì)將在周三的一次會(huì)議上宣布，將從下月起逐步取消一些限制措施。根據(jù)協(xié)議條款，減產(chǎn)幅度從目前的960萬(wàn)桶/天(約占全球供應(yīng)量的10%)降至770萬(wàn)桶/天。

歐佩克在2021年對(duì)市場(chǎng)的首次詳細(xì)評(píng)估中表示，明年全球石油需求將反彈700萬(wàn)桶/天，增幅為7.7%，至平均每天9772萬(wàn)桶。盡管如此，這仍低于去年或2018年水平，而且增長(zhǎng)取決于酒店業(yè)和旅游業(yè)的復(fù)蘇。

該組織將2020年的原油日需求量預(yù)估略微上調(diào)了10萬(wàn)桶，預(yù)計(jì)原油日消費(fèi)量仍將達(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的895萬(wàn)桶。

非歐佩克國(guó)家2020年的石油日產(chǎn)量將大幅減少326萬(wàn)桶，明年僅增加92萬(wàn)桶。對(duì)于一個(gè)在過(guò)去十年大部分時(shí)間里市場(chǎng)份額被美國(guó)頁(yè)巖鉆探公司侵蝕的組織來(lái)說(shuō)，這可能代表著一段喘息的時(shí)間。

歐佩克的估計(jì)比總部位于巴黎的國(guó)際能源機(jī)構(gòu)上周發(fā)布的預(yù)測(cè)更加樂(lè)觀，該機(jī)構(gòu)預(yù)計(jì)，明年對(duì)歐佩克原油的需求雖然將大幅回升，但仍將略低于2019年水平。

該組織目前致力于限制供應(yīng)，這已經(jīng)使價(jià)格從四月下旬的低點(diǎn)翻了一倍多，目前在倫敦達(dá)到每桶42美元左右的水平。

上個(gè)月，歐佩克進(jìn)一步減產(chǎn)189萬(wàn)桶/天，至2227萬(wàn)桶/天，原因是沙特履行了額外減產(chǎn)承諾，而其他成員國(guó)也加強(qiáng)了對(duì)減產(chǎn)承諾的遵守。

馮娟 摘譯自 Rigzone

原文如下:

OPEC Projects 2021 Surge in Crude Demand

OPEC expects demand for its crude oil to rebound sharply next year, surpassing levels seen before the coronavirus crisis, as rival producers struggle to revive output.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries forecasts the need for its crude will surge by 25% in 2021 to average 29.8 million barrels a day, higher than the level required in 2019, according to a monthly report.

While the increase is partly driven by a recovery in global oil demand as economic growth resumes, an even bigger factor is the misfortune of OPEC’s competitors. After slumping 7.4% this year, the U.S. will see only limited production growth in 2021, the report showed.

In the meantime, OPEC and its allies are cutting production to clear the glut left behind by the Covid-19 crisis and prop up prices. The cartel said it implemented more than 100% of the cutbacks pledged in June.

The OPEC+ alliance, which includes non-members such as Russia, is expected to announce at a meeting on Wednesday that it will phase out some of the curbs from next month. Under the terms of its agreement, the cuts taper from 9.6 million barrels a day currently -- roughly 10% of global supply -- to 7.7 million a day in August.

World oil demand will rebound by 7 million barrels a day, or 7.7%, next year to average 97.72 million a day, OPEC said in its first detailed assessment of the market in 2021. Still, even that is below the levels seen last year or in 2018, and the growth hinges on the containment of the coronavirus and a recovery in the hospitality and travel sectors.

The organization lifted estimates for demand in 2020 very slightly, by 100,000 barrels a day, projecting that consumption remains on track for a record annual slump of 8.95 million barrels a day.

For the improvement in the group’s fortunes next year, a more important driver is the suffering of its rivals.

Non-OPEC supply is set to plunge by a massive 3.26 million barrels a day in 2020, and will rise by only 920,000 barrels a day the following year. It could represent a period of breathing space for an organization that saw its market share eroded for much of the last decade by American shale drillers.

OPEC’s estimates form a more optimistic outlook for the cartel than that published last week by the International Energy Agency, the Paris-based institution that advises consuming nations. The IEA predicted that demand for OPEC crude, while set to recover sharply, will remain slightly below 2019 levels next year.

For the time being, the organization is committed to supply restraint, which has helped prices more than double from the lows hit in late April, to current levels of about $42 a barrel in London.

Last month the cartel slashed output by a further 1.89 million barrels a day to 22.27 million barrels a day, as Saudi Arabia followed through on promises of extra cutbacks and other members stepped up their compliance with pledged reductions. A committee that assesses implementation meets later on Tuesday, ahead of a ministerial gathering Wednesday.