Rystad ：2021年將有7個(gè)FPSO項(xiàng)目獲批

據(jù)油田技術(shù)7月10日?qǐng)?bào)道，Rystad Energy認(rèn)為，受五年內(nèi)第二次行業(yè)低迷的打擊，隨著勘探和生產(chǎn)企業(yè)削減預(yù)算和活動(dòng)，2020年全球浮式液化天然氣生產(chǎn)儲(chǔ)卸裝置（FPSO）項(xiàng)目可能僅有一個(gè)。到明年FPSO項(xiàng)目將會(huì)復(fù)蘇，有七個(gè)項(xiàng)目可能會(huì)被批準(zhǔn)。

Modec在2020年贏得了迄今為止唯一一份合同，并將為Woodside在塞內(nèi)加爾的Sangomar開發(fā)項(xiàng)目提供一個(gè)新的FPSO。該船將是第一艘在塞內(nèi)加爾運(yùn)營(yíng)的浮式生產(chǎn)儲(chǔ)油船，將以交鑰匙方式提供，其上部結(jié)構(gòu)能夠處理10萬(wàn)桶/天的石油和1.3億立方英尺/天的天然氣。Rystad Energy估計(jì)，Sangomar一期的綠地資本支出總額約為42億美元。

在2020年剩余時(shí)間內(nèi)，Rystad預(yù)計(jì)不會(huì)有任何新的FPSO合同被授予。在過(guò)去10年中，只有2016年的活動(dòng)水平較低，當(dāng)時(shí)沒(méi)有一個(gè)FPSO合同被授予。然而，從2016年開始，在2017年至2019年的三年時(shí)間里，活動(dòng)迅速反彈，共獲得27個(gè)合同。

Rystad energy的能源研究分析師Aleksander Erstad表示："我們預(yù)計(jì)將有七個(gè)FPSO項(xiàng)目迅速獲得批準(zhǔn)，其中包括巴西的Bacalhau和Mero 3，以及圭亞那的Payara項(xiàng)目。"

除了新的FPSO合同外，第二季度還披露了三份租船合同修正案。第一份合同修正案是針對(duì)Altera Infrastructure公司的，該公司自2015年起與殼牌公司簽訂合同。修正案將租期從2021年3月延長(zhǎng)至2022年3月。根據(jù)之前的協(xié)議，如果殼牌公司在2025年之前終止合同，殼牌公司將支付罰款。現(xiàn)在，這一終止處罰已被取消，以換取新的生產(chǎn)和石油價(jià)格關(guān)稅。由于低油價(jià)損害了油田的盈利能力，日利率也將從2021年3月開始下降?，F(xiàn)在看來(lái)，殼牌可能會(huì)在幾年后關(guān)閉油田。2019年，Knarr的產(chǎn)量平均為12000桶/天。

鄒勤 摘譯自 油田技術(shù)

原文如下：

Rystad Energy forecasts seven FPSO awards in 2021

Hit by the second industry downturn in five years, global awards for FPSO vessels will likely be limited to a single unit in 2020, Rystad Energy believes, as exploration and production firms slash budgets and activity. Similar to the previous downturn, awards are set to recover next year, with seven projects likely to be sanctioned.

Modec won the only contract so far awarded in 2020 and will supply a new-built FPSO for Woodside’s Sangomar development in Senegal. The vessel, which will be the first FPSO to operate in Senegal, will be supplied on a turnkey basis and feature topsides capable of handling 100 000 bpd of oil and 130 million ft3/d of gas. Rystad Energy estimates that the total greenfield CAPEX for Sangomar phase 1 will be around US$4.2 billion.

For the remainder of 2020, Rystad does not expect to see any new FPSO contracts being awarded. Over the last 10 years, only 2016 saw a lower level of activity when not a single FPSO contract was awarded. However, from 2016 activity quickly rebounded with 27 awards in the three-year period from 2017 to 2019.

“This time too, we expect to see a speedy comeback in FPSO sanctioning with seven projects expected next year, including Bacalhau and Mero 3 in Brazil and Payara (Prosperity) in Guyana,” said Aleksander Erstad, energy research analyst in Rystad Energy.

Aside from new FPSO contracts, three charter contract amendments were disclosed in 2Q20.

The first contract amendment was for Altera Infrastructure’s (previously Teekay Offshore) Petrojarl Knarr, which has been on contract with Shell since 2015. The amendment extends the charter period from March 2021 to March 2022. Under the previous agreement, Shell would pay a penalty if they terminated the contract before 2025. Now, this termination penalty has been removed in return for a new production and an oil price tariff. The day-rate is also set to fall from March 2021 as low oil prices hurt the field’s profitability. It now seems likely that Shell will shut down the field a few years down the road. Liquids production at Knarr averaged 12 000 bpd in 2019.