IEA預(yù)計(jì)今年全球市場(chǎng)需求損失低于預(yù)期

據(jù)今日油價(jià)7月10日?qǐng)?bào)道，國(guó)際能源機(jī)構(gòu)（IEA）表示，今年全球石油需求將下降790萬(wàn)桶/日，但這一預(yù)測(cè)比上個(gè)月需求下降810萬(wàn)桶/日的預(yù)期略為樂(lè)觀。

然而，該機(jī)構(gòu)指出，最近疫情的增加以及一些國(guó)家恢復(fù)部分封鎖，繼續(xù)給2020年全球石油需求帶來(lái)不確定性。

IEA在月度石油市場(chǎng)報(bào)告中稱(chēng)，今年全球平均石油消費(fèi)量預(yù)計(jì)為9210萬(wàn)桶/日，而一般需求量為1億桶/日。

對(duì)需求損失的預(yù)測(cè)降低主要是由于第二季度的需求下降沒(méi)有最初預(yù)期的那么嚴(yán)重。

根據(jù)IEA的數(shù)據(jù)，全球石油需求在第二季度同比下降了1640萬(wàn)桶/日，盡管這是一場(chǎng)大崩盤(pán)，但仍低于預(yù)期。此外，總5月份亞洲原油進(jìn)口國(guó)印度的需求強(qiáng)勁反彈，同比增長(zhǎng)110萬(wàn)桶/日。

自今年5月以來(lái)，預(yù)計(jì)今年需求一直在減少。在6月的石油市場(chǎng)報(bào)告中，該機(jī)構(gòu)預(yù)計(jì)2020年需求將下降810萬(wàn)桶/日，較4月（930萬(wàn)桶/日）和5月（860萬(wàn)桶/日暴跌）的預(yù)測(cè)有所改善。

在供應(yīng)方面，IEA估計(jì)，6月份全球石油供應(yīng)量下降240萬(wàn)桶/日，降至9年來(lái)最低水平8690萬(wàn)桶/日。

IEA表示：“盡管自‘黑色四月’以來(lái)，石油市場(chǎng)無(wú)疑取得了進(jìn)展，但在一些國(guó)家，疫情地不斷增加也在提醒人們，大流行尚未得到控制，我們市場(chǎng)前景的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是不會(huì)下降的?！薄?/span>

洪偉立 摘譯自 今日油價(jià)

原文如下：

IEA Sees Lower-Than-Previously Expected Demand Loss This Year

Global oil demand is set to crash by 7.9 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday, but this forecast is slightly more optimistic than last month’s expectation of an 8.1-million-bpd demand drop.

The IEA, however, noted that the recent rise in COVID-19 cases and the reinstating of partial lockdowns in some countries continue to weigh with uncertainty on the world’s global oil demand in 2020.

This year, the world is expected to consume an average of 92.1 million bpd of oil, compared to the typical demand of 100 million bpd, the IEA said in its Monthly Oil Market report.

The lowered projection for demand loss is mainly attributed to the Q2 demand decline turning out to be less severe than initially expected.

According to the IEA, global oil demand dropped by 16.4 million bpd in Q2 year over year, which, albeit quite a crash, was less than expected.

Moreover, demand rebounded strongly in the top crude oil importers in Asia —India—in May, rising by1.1 million bpd, respectively, month over month, the Paris-based agency noted.

Since May, the IEA has been consistently reducing the forecast for this year’s demand loss. In the June Oil Market Report, the agency expected 2020 demand to drop by 8.1 million bpd, an improvement from the forecasts from April (9.3 million bpd drop) and May (8.6 million bpd slump).

In terms of supply, the agency estimates that global oil supply dropped by 2.4 million bpd in June to its lowest level in nine years – 86.9 million bpd.

“While the oil market has undoubtedly made progress since 'Black April,' the large, and in some countries, accelerating number of Covid-19 cases is a disturbing reminder that the pandemic is not under control and the risk to our market outlook is almost certainly to the downside,” the IEA said.