IEA預計今年全球市場需求損失低于預期

據(jù)今日油價7月10日報道，國際能源機構（IEA）表示，今年全球石油需求將下降790萬桶/日，但這一預測比上個月需求下降810萬桶/日的預期略為樂觀。

然而，該機構指出，最近疫情的增加以及一些國家恢復部分封鎖，繼續(xù)給2020年全球石油需求帶來不確定性。

IEA在月度石油市場報告中稱，今年全球平均石油消費量預計為9210萬桶/日，而一般需求量為1億桶/日。

對需求損失的預測降低主要是由于第二季度的需求下降沒有最初預期的那么嚴重。

根據(jù)IEA的數(shù)據(jù)，全球石油需求在第二季度同比下降了1640萬桶/日，盡管這是一場大崩盤，但仍低于預期。此外，總5月份亞洲原油進口國印度的需求強勁反彈，同比增長110萬桶/日。

自今年5月以來，預計今年需求一直在減少。在6月的石油市場報告中，該機構預計2020年需求將下降810萬桶/日，較4月（930萬桶/日）和5月（860萬桶/日暴跌）的預測有所改善。

在供應方面，IEA估計，6月份全球石油供應量下降240萬桶/日，降至9年來最低水平8690萬桶/日。

IEA表示：“盡管自‘黑色四月’以來，石油市場無疑取得了進展，但在一些國家，疫情地不斷增加也在提醒人們，大流行尚未得到控制，我們市場前景的風險是不會下降的?！?。

洪偉立 摘譯自 今日油價

原文如下：

IEA Sees Lower-Than-Previously Expected Demand Loss This Year

Global oil demand is set to crash by 7.9 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday, but this forecast is slightly more optimistic than last month’s expectation of an 8.1-million-bpd demand drop.

The IEA, however, noted that the recent rise in COVID-19 cases and the reinstating of partial lockdowns in some countries continue to weigh with uncertainty on the world’s global oil demand in 2020.

This year, the world is expected to consume an average of 92.1 million bpd of oil, compared to the typical demand of 100 million bpd, the IEA said in its Monthly Oil Market report.

The lowered projection for demand loss is mainly attributed to the Q2 demand decline turning out to be less severe than initially expected.

According to the IEA, global oil demand dropped by 16.4 million bpd in Q2 year over year, which, albeit quite a crash, was less than expected.

Moreover, demand rebounded strongly in the top crude oil importers in Asia —India—in May, rising by1.1 million bpd, respectively, month over month, the Paris-based agency noted.

Since May, the IEA has been consistently reducing the forecast for this year’s demand loss. In the June Oil Market Report, the agency expected 2020 demand to drop by 8.1 million bpd, an improvement from the forecasts from April (9.3 million bpd drop) and May (8.6 million bpd slump).

In terms of supply, the agency estimates that global oil supply dropped by 2.4 million bpd in June to its lowest level in nine years – 86.9 million bpd.

“While the oil market has undoubtedly made progress since 'Black April,' the large, and in some countries, accelerating number of Covid-19 cases is a disturbing reminder that the pandemic is not under control and the risk to our market outlook is almost certainly to the downside,” the IEA said.