IEA：石油需求復(fù)蘇面臨挑戰(zhàn)

據(jù)7月10日Rigzone報(bào)道，國(guó)際能源署(International Energy Agency)對(duì)全球石油需求前景表示樂(lè)觀，但警告稱，疫情的再次爆發(fā)可能會(huì)阻礙全球石油需求的復(fù)蘇。

該機(jī)構(gòu)稱，二季度燃料消耗量的下降幅度略低于此前的預(yù)估，隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)恢復(fù)，未來(lái)三個(gè)月需求將大幅反彈。IEA預(yù)計(jì)，隨著歐佩克及其盟友堅(jiān)持大幅減產(chǎn)，巨大的庫(kù)存將會(huì)減少。

國(guó)際能源署表示:“病例數(shù)量不斷增加，一些國(guó)家還在不斷增長(zhǎng)，這提醒我們，疫情尚未得到控制，對(duì)我們市場(chǎng)前景帶來(lái)了幾乎可以肯定的下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)?！?/span>

不過(guò)，值得注意的是，國(guó)際油價(jià)較4月底觸及的低點(diǎn)上漲了一倍多，上周五在倫敦市場(chǎng)交易價(jià)格接近每桶42美元，原因是燃料消費(fèi)量增加，原油供應(yīng)受到控制。

然而，人們?nèi)阅芨惺艿轿C(jī)的沖擊仍在持續(xù)。全球石油需求今年將減少790萬(wàn)桶/天，降幅約為8%。盡管這仍是創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的需求削減，但并不像上個(gè)月預(yù)期的那樣糟糕，當(dāng)時(shí)該機(jī)構(gòu)預(yù)計(jì)日消耗量將下降830萬(wàn)桶。

IEA將其對(duì)危機(jī)最嚴(yán)重的第二季度的需求評(píng)估上調(diào)了150萬(wàn)桶/天，不過(guò)這仍較2019年同期下降了17%。

據(jù)該機(jī)構(gòu)指出，進(jìn)入第三季度，隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的復(fù)蘇，全球石油消費(fèi)量將較前三個(gè)季度增加約14%，達(dá)到日均9430萬(wàn)桶。

需求反彈，再加上歐佩克及其盟友的嚴(yán)格減產(chǎn)，加上其他國(guó)家的減產(chǎn)，應(yīng)會(huì)在一定程度上緩解今年上半年積壓的大量庫(kù)存。

6月份，全球石油供應(yīng)跌至8690萬(wàn)桶的九年來(lái)最低水平，因歐佩克兌現(xiàn)了所有承諾，同時(shí)投資削減和鉆井減少打擊了美國(guó)和加拿大的產(chǎn)量。

以沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯為首的23個(gè)國(guó)家組成的歐佩克+聯(lián)盟已經(jīng)做出了史無(wú)前例的減產(chǎn)承諾，減產(chǎn)量幾乎占全球供應(yīng)量的10%，以重新平衡市場(chǎng)和支撐油價(jià)。國(guó)際能源署表示，由于沙特為加快復(fù)蘇進(jìn)程而進(jìn)一步減產(chǎn)，減產(chǎn)幅度甚至超過(guò)了6月份承諾的規(guī)模。

洪偉立 摘譯自 Rigzone

原文如下：

IEA Warns Oil Demand Recovery at Risk

The International Energy Agency bolstered its outlook for global oil demand, but warned that the recovery could be derailed by the resurgence of coronavirus.

A collapse in fuel consumption during the second quarter was slightly less severe than previously estimated, and demand should rebound sharply over the next three months as economic activity resumes, the agency said in a monthly report. Bloated inventories will diminish as OPEC and its allies persevere with vast production cuts, it predicted.

Yet a flare-up of the virus, which is raging across several U.S. states and re-emerging in Asia, is “casting a shadow over the outlook,” the IEA cautioned.

“The large, and in some countries, accelerating number of Covid-19 cases is a disturbing reminder that the pandemic is not under control and the risk to our market outlook is almost certainly to the downside,” the IEA said. The Paris-based agency advises major economies on energy policy.

International oil prices have more than doubled from the lows reached in late April, trading just under $42 a barrel in London on Friday, as fuel use picks up and crude supplies are reined in.

The shockwaves of the coronavirus crisis are, however, still being felt.

Global oil demand is on track to slump by 7.9 million barrels a day, or about 8%, this year as lockdowns and the economic contraction reduce the need for products like jet fuel and gasoline. While still a record loss, it’s not as bad as anticipated last month, when the agency projected a drop of 8.3 million barrels a day.

The IEA boosted its demand assessment for the second quarter, the height of the crisis, by 1.5 million barrels a day –- though that still equates to a 17% drop in the period from the same point in 2019.

Going into the third quarter, worldwide consumption should now pick up by about 14% from the previous three-month period, with the revival in economic activity, to average 94.3 million barrels a day, according to the agency.

The demand rebound, coupled with strict output cutbacks by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies alongside losses elsewhere, should temper some of the enormous inventory glut that piled up during the first half of the year.

Global oil supply dropped to a nine-year low of 86.9 million barrels a day last month as OPEC+ delivered all the curbs it promised, while investment cuts and reduced drilling hit output from the U.S. and Canada.

The 23-nation OPEC+ alliance, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, has pledged unprecedented output reductions amounting to almost 10% of world supplies in a bid to rebalance markets and shore up prices. The coalition cut even more than promised in June as the Saudis made additional reductions to speed up the recovery process, the IEA said.